海角大神

Oh how the mighty have fallen. If Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, is at all reflective about the twists of his once-soaring political career, he might be muttering that biblical saying.听

But after the 2013 scandal that ensnared several top aides, and major problems with New Jersey鈥檚 finances 鈥� including nine credit downgrades 鈥� Governor Christie has been brought low both at home and nationally. He enters the 2016 presidential race Tuesday a long shot.听

So why try at all? 聽

鈥淩emember the answer that some mountain climber gave when he was asked, 鈥榃hy are you climbing Mount Everest?鈥� The answer was, 鈥楤ecause it鈥檚 there,鈥欌�� says Larry Sabato, presidential scholar at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what mountain climbers do; they try to get to the top of the highest mountain. And this is what politicians do; they try to get to the presidency.鈥�

A shorter answer could be: Why not run? Even at just 4 percent in , Christie is only about 10 percentage points behind the frontrunner, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.听Plus, it鈥檚 early. Anything could happen. Or at least that鈥檚 what long-shot candidates tell themselves.

Expectations are so low as to be nonexistent. So Christie has no place to go but up.

His slogan 鈥� "Telling it like it is" 鈥� plays on his bluntness.听His game plan is to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire, whose primary is next February, the second nominating contest after Iowa. New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate, Northeastern, Christie-type voters, he鈥檚 wagering 鈥� or, at least, more moderate than the social conservatives who dominate the Iowa Republican caucuses. Christie鈥檚 polling at , in sixth place, and about 10 percentage points behind Mr. Bush.听

If Christie does well in New Hampshire, and some other early primaries, the positive buzz he used to enjoy could come back, supporters say.

鈥淥nce he gets that momentum, you鈥檒l see the whole dynamic of the race change,鈥� Dale Florio, a Republican lobbyist in New Jersey, .

Maybe. His camp has put out that he鈥檒l raise $20 million to $30 million by the end of the year 鈥� a decent pile of money, but not much compared with other GOP contenders such as Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.听But it鈥檚 good starter cash that would certainly grow exponentially if he were to catch on.

Or maybe Christie falls flat, his money runs out, and he drops out early, hoping the Republican nominee wins the election and nominates Christie for a Cabinet post. Christie is serving his second term as governor and is barred from running again.

Just four years ago, at the start of the 2012 presidential cycle, Christie was the dream candidate, the only Republican who could beat President Obama 鈥� at least . Surely, they thought, he would be a better nominee than Mitt Romney, who indeed went on to lose to Mr. Obama.

But Christie wouldn鈥檛 run, despite their entreaties. He was still new to the New Jersey governorship and expressed devotion to the job at hand. But the calls to get in persisted. By September 2011, he was delivering a televised address at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in California to convince the political universe he really, truly would not run. Less than a year later, he was the keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, a possible springboard to the 2016 nomination.

Now, Christie should be so burdened as to have donors begging him to take their money 鈥� or tuning in to watch him deliver a nationally televised address. He鈥檒l be fortunate to make the first Republican debate on Aug. 6, in which Fox News is allowing only the top 10 candidates in major national polls to participate. For now, .听

With 20/20 hindsight, Christie might be kicking himself for not getting in in 2012, when he was a rising star. His brash, Jersey style captivated some voters. In New Hampshire, he brought charisma to the stump that Mr. Romney could only dream of, as this reporter witnessed at a town hall meeting in Exeter, N.H., in January 2012. Christie dispensed with a heckler with signature aplomb.

But had Christie run last time, it鈥檚 possible that the bluntness would have worn thin after a while. And it may not have played well in other parts of the country. Some voters 鈥� many voters? 鈥� don鈥檛 appreciate being told to as he did in one of many famous Christie moments.听To some, such talk might be entertaining but it hardly seems presidential. 聽

In retrospect, maybe President Christie was never meant to be. The nation will soon find out.听