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Twenty-nine years. That鈥檚 how long minority leader Mitch McConnell, arguably the most powerful Republican in Washington, has represented Kentucky in the United States Senate, a record for that state.

As Senator McConnell seeks his sixth term, and a chance to become the majority leader of a GOP-controlled Senate, he is emphasizing that experience and position, first to fend off a tea party upstart in the May 20 GOP primary, then to beat back a Democratic challenger with whom he is tied in the polls.

But incumbency for McConnell is a two-edged sword, especially when 鈥� according to a poll last year 鈥� cockroaches are more popular than Congress. Americans鈥� views have mellowed only slightly since then.

McConnell鈥檚 opponents say he is at his most vulnerable now, when polls show more Kentucky voters disapprove of the job he鈥檚 doing than approve. He is expected to win his primary contest handily, but come November a broader electorate might decide that three decades is enough. That would be a stinging blow, reminiscent of the defeat of former Senate minority leader Tom Daschle (D) of South Dakota in 2004.

McConnell鈥檚 incumbency is 鈥渢he big theme鈥� of the campaign, says Ryan Alessi, a political reporter for Time Warner Cable鈥檚 network in Louisville. Incumbency-bashing is plentiful in the campaign of Republican Matt Bevin, a businessman who has the support of outside tea party groups such as FreedomWorks but who trails McConnell badly in the polls 鈥� by 32 points in a May NBC/Marist Poll of likely Republican voters.

Mr. Bevin鈥檚 main motivation in running is to reduce the national debt, at which McConnell has failed, he says in an interview. His ads end with the tag line: 鈥淢itch McConnell: too liberal, too long.鈥�

Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky鈥檚 young secretary of state, who has the powerhouse backing of Bill Clinton, urges a 鈥渟witch鈥� from Mitch, blaming him for the dysfunction in the nation鈥檚 capital.

鈥淎fter being in Washington for nearly 30 years, it鈥檚 clear that Mitch McConnell has lost touch with Kentucky,鈥� says Ms. Grimes鈥檚 spokeswoman, Charly Norton, who adds that Grimes is looking out for the Kentucky middle class and jobs. 鈥淥ur campaign is Kentucky versus Washington,鈥� she says.

No single reason explains McConnell鈥檚 low approval ratings 鈥� with range from 32 percent of registered voters to 41 percent, depending on the poll. Part of his unpopularity is due to the public鈥檚 low regard for Congress generally. Part is due to the odd political mix that is Kentucky, a conservative state with, traditionally, more registered Democrats than Republicans. In national elections, Kentuckians vote Republican 鈥� President Obama lost Kentucky by wide margins in 2008 and 2012. In state elections, however, they generally vote Democrat. Gov. Steve Beshear is a well-liked Democrat in his second term, and Democrats control the House in the state Legislature.

But Kentucky, which has a tea party stronghold in the north, is also the state that produced US Sen. Rand Paul, the libertarian who rode the tea party wave to Congress in 2010 and tops polls for potential GOP presidential candidates in 2016. McConnell backed someone else in the GOP Senate primary four years ago, and many 鈥渇ans of Rand鈥� haven鈥檛 forgotten that. Now they 鈥� led by Bevin 鈥� blast McConnell for caving in crises: for compromising on 鈥淥bamacare鈥� in last fall鈥檚 partial government shutdown, on taxes and spending in the 鈥渇iscal cliff鈥� debate last year, and on the debt ceiling in 2011.

Only Mr. Obama has a lower job approval rating than McConnell in Kentucky. This explains why 鈥淭eam Mitch鈥� wraps the incumbent鈥檚 past performance and future promise in an anti-Obama message: The senator saved 99 percent of Kentuckians from a tax hike (last year鈥檚 fiscal cliff deal with Vice President Joe Biden), he helped stop 鈥渂ureaucrats鈥� from ruining a favorite fishing area, and he鈥檚 fighting the president鈥檚 鈥渨ar on coal鈥� and Obamacare. That鈥檚 not to deny McConnell his personal deliverables. Universities, businesses, farmers 鈥� all have benefited from decades of the senator鈥檚 attention. 鈥淭here is virtually no community, big, small or otherwise in Kentucky, that doesn鈥檛 have a personal story of interaction with Senator McConnell,鈥� says Josh Holmes, a senior campaign adviser to McConnell.

But fighting Obama (and pinning down Bevin) is a main theme of the campaign. Go to a McConnell event, and it sounds as if you are listening to him on the Senate floor. Charismatic, he is not. But predictable in his anti-Obama rhetoric? You bet. And that hits home.

Take his recent appearance at Bowie Refined Coal in Irvine, on the edge of eastern Kentucky鈥檚 depressed coal country. The new plant, which processes coal, is a bright spot in a region that lost more than 10,000 jobs in the past year and has an unemployment rate of 14.5 percent. Reasons for the sudden loss of high-paying mining jobs are multiple and interrelated 鈥� from a drop in the price of natural gas, to a rise in the price of harder-to-mine coal, to regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency. McConnell somberly focused on the latter as he addressed smudge-faced coal workers.

The administration, he declared, has 鈥渁n animus toward our way of life and what we do. And what I鈥檓 saying to you today, I could say to anybody anywhere in Kentucky, because the war on coal is not just a war on those who mine coal, it鈥檚 a war on our entire state.鈥� Ninety percent of the state鈥檚 electricity is powered by coal, he said, resulting in low utility rates.

鈥淭hese people need to be stopped,鈥� he continued, asking the workers to let him lead the GOP charge and take control of the Senate. It was a clear sales pitch for his leadership status, an advantage his competitors cannot match.

As majority leader, McConnell said, he could rein in bureaucracy and government regulation and put Obama on the spot over coal. A GOP Congress might also force Obama 鈥� like Mr. Clinton before him 鈥� to move closer to Republicans on issues. Ultimately, of course, Republicans need to take back the White House, the senator told his audience.

He faced a receptive group. McConnell 鈥渄oes real good for eastern Kentucky,鈥� says Chester Cody, a laid-off coal worker grateful for his new job at Bowie. 鈥淚 think he鈥檚 the only one helping us keep the coal,鈥� says Ronnie Stevens, a coal worker sitting next to his colleague.

But Kentuckians, when asked by a reporter, have a tough time naming what their senator has done for them lately. The Grimes campaign points out that an evocative McConnell ad touting his help for workers sickened at a nuclear fuel plant relates to steps he took more than a decade ago 鈥� a warmed-over issue that he used in his 2008 race.

鈥淭here鈥檚 this vague sense among voters that he鈥檚 powerful, and he can help out,鈥� says Mr. Alessi, the political reporter. 鈥淗is reputation is built on the ability to get deals done like the tobacco buyout鈥� for Kentucky鈥檚 farmers 鈥� a signature issue from 2004.

When it comes to legacies, one in particular stands out: the building that houses the state GOP headquarters in the capital city of Frankfort, the Mitch McConnell Building.

Kentucky鈥檚 Republican Party is 鈥渢he thing McConnell really did build himself,鈥� Alessi says. It may also be the legacy that helps him most.

It was McConnell who turned the Kentucky GOP into a well-oiled machine that turned out winners. In 1985, when McConnell first went to Congress, he was the only GOP senator from Kentucky. Over in the House, four of the seven Kentucky seats were held by Democrats. Today, Republicans hold all but one House seat, and Senator Paul is the junior GOP senator alongside McConnell.

Meanwhile, Republicans control the state Senate and hope to flip the House.

McConnell is revered among Republicans, says Mr. Holmes, the adviser. 鈥淭here basically is not a county-level office in this state where the Republican hasn鈥檛 had some interaction with Mitch McConnell on their way to elected office,鈥� he says. They are grateful 鈥� and loyal.

Take Julie Raque Adams, a Kentucky House member running for state Senate. In 2002, when she was contemplating running for Louisville City Council, someone suggested she call the senator to ask for his advice.

She was skeptical. He鈥檒l be too busy, she thought. But then she asked herself: What鈥檚 the worst that could happen? So she phoned his office, left a message, and 20 minutes later was flabbergasted when his office returned the call.

鈥淗e literally got down into the nitty-gritty,鈥� she recalled. He asked about her district, the neighborhoods, and then suggested important issues to talk about in her campaign. She won鈥檛 ever forget his encouraging words: 鈥� 鈥楧o not be afraid to run.鈥� We need more women to run for office, and I will do anything I can to support you.鈥� 鈥�

She ran, she won, and he has supported her ever since that first phone call. 鈥淚 owe a debt of gratitude to him,鈥� Ms. Adams says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 been there for a lot of us, and now it鈥檚 our turn to be there for him.鈥� Indeed, 64 of the 68 members of the GOP in the capitol have endorsed McConnell over Bevin.

So, too, has Paul, which helps inoculate the senior senator against Bevin鈥檚 renegade tea party backers. McConnell may have supported Paul鈥檚 competitor in 2010, but after the primary was over, the senator swung behind the candidate.

The primary has showcased McConnell鈥檚 tactical skill, says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Those skills were evident back in 1984 when he was first elected to the Senate. Two weeks before the election, he was down by 22 points. Then he ran a humorous and down-home ad featuring bloodhounds trying to find his Democratic opponent 鈥� an incumbent who apparently didn鈥檛 show up for votes very often.

Similarly, the McConnell team has not let up on Bevin. The inexperienced Bevin has made it easy on McConnell, whose ads slam him for speaking at a cockfighting rally, misrepresenting his education on his r茅sum茅, and flip-flopping on the Wall Street bailout during the economic crisis.

In an interview, Bevin described what it is like to go up against McConnell鈥檚 machine:

鈥淭hey tried to offer me any number of incentives not to do it,鈥� not to run, he said. Bevin says he knows McConnell from years ago, when the senator tried to get him to run for Congress.

鈥淵ou鈥檙e supposed to feel groomed and special, like you鈥檝e been brought into the inner sanctum, and you get to kiss the ring,鈥� Bevin said. 鈥淭his is part of what鈥檚 wrong,鈥� he went on. 鈥淚 know the man. I know his tactics,鈥� which Bevin describes as bullying and vindictive.

Grimes can expect a similarly tough competitor. McConnell is already defining her as an Obama clone 鈥� an image she鈥檚 fighting.

鈥淢cConnell鈥檚 campaign is going to be predominantly negative. He has two inexperienced opponents, with records that give him a decent amount of ammunition,鈥� says Stephen Voss, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky.

As secretary of state, Grimes is responsible for elections, bringing businesses to Kentucky, and educating about civics. No tough decisions there. On the campaign trail, she鈥檚 mastered the scripted speech, observers say, but she鈥檚 unsteady fielding questions.

But Grimes also has a weighty political legacy: her family. Her father is a well-known figure in Kentucky as a businessman and former leader of the state Democratic Party. He鈥檚 also a Friend of Bill, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Kentucky. Clinton visited the state in February on behalf of Grimes. Also in Grimes鈥檚 corner 鈥� her grandmother, mother, and sisters. Women voters will give Grimes the edge in November, predicts Democratic state Rep. Kelly Flood.

In the end, Bevin鈥檚 voters 鈥� many of whom will likely 鈥渉old their nose鈥� and swing behind McConnell 鈥� just might be enough to push this 鈥淜entucky workhorse,鈥� as his ads call him, over the finish line. But at this point, the race looks like a photo finish.