海角大神

President Obama may have dreams of advancing his ambitious nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament goals in his second term, but North Korea鈥檚 third nuclear test this week risks spoiling that vision by setting off a nuclear race in an increasingly uneasy Northeast Asia.

In the wake of Pyongyang鈥檚 latest nuclear blast 鈥� and its hints that it intends to carry out additional nuclear tests in the coming months 鈥� political leaders and media in both South Korea and Japan are suggesting that the pressure to fight fire with fire and go nuclear may be too hard to resist.

And any moves in the region to build nuclear arsenals in response to a belligerent North Korea would no doubt have repercussions in China, nuclear experts say, especially since Beijing 鈥� already involved in a tense territorial dispute with Japan 鈥� would likely respond by augmenting its own nuclear arsenal.

鈥淭here are a lot of clocks running here, but they鈥檙e all counting down towards the same outcome, and that鈥檚 the nuclear cliff,鈥� says Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) in Arlington, Va..

Both Japan and South Korea have security treaties with the United States that place them under the US nuclear umbrella. In effect that means they shouldn鈥檛 need their own nuclear arsenals because the US is obligated to defend them in the case of an aggression.

But the North鈥檚 nuclear test has led to public musings in both countries that maybe their no-nukes policies need to change.

In South Korea, conservative members of the National Assembly and like-minded media have said the country must consider matching the North. One lawmaker declared that stones are not good enough for fighting a gangster with a machine gun. South Korea鈥檚 soon-departing president, Lee Myung-bak, described the recent calls for South Korea to go nuclear as 鈥減atriotic鈥� in a newspaper interview.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the comments are wrong because they also serve as a warning to North Korea and China,鈥� President Lee told the Dong-A libo newspaper.

In Japan, the nationalist and surging Japan Restoration Party has been the main source of calls for developing nuclear weapons 鈥� to counter not just North Korea, party leaders say, but also nuclear powers China and Russia.

Officially Japan鈥檚 position is that, since it is prohibited in its constitution from developing an offensive military capability, its counter to regional aggression is the US-Japan security alliance. But Japan鈥檚 new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has lent support to the idea of amending the constitution to allow for a more robust defensive posture. Some Japan analysts say that move is aimed at least in part at opening the way to a nuclear arsenal.

One explanation for the recent surge in warnings of a 鈥渘o other choice鈥� recourse to nuclear weapons is a desire to 鈥� as South Korea鈥檚 Lee suggests 鈥� jolt China into pressuring its allies in Pyongyang, some regional experts say.聽

鈥淪urely Beijing could understand why South Korea and Japan would find it hard to calmly accept a nuclear North Korea,鈥� wrote Doug Bandow, a foreign policy fellow and Asia expert at the CATO Institute in Washington, on the CATO website. Were Pyongyang to remain on its current path of nuclear arms and missile development, he adds, the US might decide that the best defense would be for Japan and South Korea to develop their own 鈥渃ountervailing nuclear weapons."

鈥淭hen [China] would share the nightmare of proliferation in Northeast Asia," he said.聽

The NPEC鈥檚 Mr. Sokolski agrees that some of what鈥檚 going on is an effort to pressure China into doing something to halt the North Korean regime鈥檚 nuclear train. But he sees little chance of such pressure being successful.

鈥淒on鈥檛 kid yourself, China is not going to do very much," he says. "And even if they did, it鈥檚 not going to be enough to turn this off.鈥�

Why? While North Korea may be the immediate cause of the nuclear jitters, Sokolski says, the rivalries and tensions among China, Japan, and South Korea are an underlying critical element.

Noting that the South Koreans consider Japan to already be among the world鈥檚 nuclear-capable countries, he says, 鈥淚n South Korea, they say, 鈥榃e are living between two nuclear-arming countries, North Korea and Japan.鈥� It鈥檚 justification for moving farther down the nuclear road.鈥�

This is where the US comes in. South Korea wants to renegotiate its atomic energy deal with the US to allow for 鈥渞eprocessing鈥� of spent fuel from the country鈥檚 nuclear plants. The US, worried that reprocessed fuel could eventually be used to build nuclear weapons, has been cool to the idea.

But South Korea argues that Japan already has the right to reprocess its nuclear fuel. And when the US and South Korea sit down to consider revising the existing nuclear energy deal 鈥� sometime after President-elect Park Geun-hye takes office later this month 鈥� South Korean officials are likely to complain about their perception that Washington has favored Tokyo over Seoul in this area.

Despite the troubling prospects of a nuclearized Northeast Asia, some regional experts say there are alternatives. One option, apparently favored by Russia, would be for China to agree to join any future round of US-Russia nuclear arms reduction talks. China is mum on the size of its nuclear arsenal, although it is considered to have many fewer warheads than the US or Russia.聽Seeing Beijing willing to discuss its arsenal and at least consider reductions could reduce proliferation risks, experts say.

But Sokolski notes that Northeast Asia鈥檚 nuclear scenario will remain complex and tense 鈥� and the US will stay in the middle of it all.

Both Japan and South Korea support in principle a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and universal nuclear disarmament. But he says they also see the US reducing its warheads in accords with Russia, even as no one knows for sure what arsenal China has. 鈥淎nd they say, 鈥極K, maybe it鈥檚 time for us to develop out own option.鈥� 鈥�