海角大神

Same-sex marriage advocates are understandably elated and opponents are unsurprisingly disappointed about President Obama鈥檚 statement Wednesday that he supports gay marriage. But the question remains: What difference does it make?

Mr. Obama鈥檚 policies have consistently favored the expansion of gay rights, pushing for the termination of 鈥渄on鈥檛 ask, don鈥檛 tell鈥� and deciding to stop legal defense of the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) 鈥� which defines a marriage as being between one man and one woman.

But, for now, DOMA remains the law of the land, meaning Obama can鈥檛 do too much more than he has already done to advance gay marriage. What his comments Wednesday can do, however, is add the power of the president鈥檚 bully pulpit to a debate that is already shifting toward broader cultural acceptance. And that is no small thing, advocates and analysts say.

鈥淭here are no immediate tangible effects of his decision but there are certainly tremendously important symbolic effects,鈥� says Michael Cole-Schwartz, director of communications for the Human Rights Campaign, a leading advocate for gay marriage. 鈥淭he president had already opposed the Defense of Marriage Act and state bans on marriage.听What this does is send a great message that will hopefully spur more people to continue on the evolutionary journey that the president described.鈥�

In an election year, the cultural push and pull over gay marriage is likely to be seen most obviously through the lens of politics. The result of Obama鈥檚 new stance, which he explained in an interview with ABC, will almost certainly be to galvanize both sides of the issue.

鈥淏oth anti- and pro-gay marriage forces will now play as many political cards with it as possible since it is an election year,鈥� says Len Shyles, a professor of communication at聽Villanova聽University in Philadelphia.听

For his part, the president will now have the gay community unequivocally聽on his side. Previously, it had supported Obama but chided him for not supporting gay marriage openly.

鈥淭he lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community, who were already largely behind the president's reelection efforts, are now likely to be not only engaged, but also enthusiastic supporters,鈥� says Lara Brown, author of 鈥淛ockeying for the American Presidency." 鈥淭his means they will do much more than simply vote. They'll raise money, contribute, and volunteer.鈥澛�

Obama鈥檚 stand could also influence in ways not yet clear four ballot initiatives on gay marriage this November 鈥� in聽Maine,聽Minnesota, Washington聽State, and聽Maryland. On Tuesday, North Carolina voted to ban gay marriage and civil unions.

鈥淲hereas we can all wonder what would have happened had Obama made his announcement before yesterday鈥檚 vote in聽North Carolina, there will be no reason to wonder this fall,鈥澛爏ays Stuart Gaffney, media director for Marriage Equality USA.

In the end, Obama鈥檚 shift might not signal any change in policies, but rather simply show that he was increasingly boxed in by the course of his own presidency, says聽Peter Sprigg, senior fellow for policy studies at Family Research Council, which opposes same-sex marriage.

鈥淣one of his policies were consistent with supporting marriage as one man and one woman to begin with,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is just evidence of a politician responding to pressure from within himself and his allies that there was an intolerable inconsistency between his expressed view and his public policies that couldn鈥檛 be maintained any longer.鈥�

Yet the deeper flow toward cultural acceptance of gay marriage could give Obama鈥檚 position as the first president to back gay marriage a deeper resonance, say others. An average of nine polls taken in the past year show that 50 percent of American adults support gay marriage while 45 percent oppose it 鈥� with the trend lines showing increasing support, according to PollingReport.com.

鈥淧erhaps the president's evolving thinking is indicative of where we are as a nation,鈥� says Gordon Coonfield, also a professor of communication at聽Villanova,聽via e-mail. 鈥淭he nature and composition of what the majority of people know and experience as family has shifted dramatically in recent decades鈥�. Perhaps the president's openness will lead to a cultural tipping point on this issue, and we can begin seriously reassessing what family is and how we as a society want to define, support, and value that institution.鈥�