海角大神

Oakland police, acting early Monday morning, have now cleared the Occupy Oakland encampment for a second time. But it is still not clear whether the municipality and protesters are drawing up hard battle lines or if these local skirmishes have implications for the overall Occupy movement.

What is clear is that in Oakland, city and business leaders聽are on one side, with protesters and a variety of supporters, such as unions, on the other.

According to a city statement Monday morning, 鈥渓odging will be strictly prohibited鈥� in the Frank Ogawa Plaza near City聽Hall, where protesters have been ensconced since Oct. 10. And, says Paul Junge, director of public policy聽for the Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, 鈥渨e are pleased with the action the city took.鈥�

At the same time, the protesters Monday were convening an afternoon march in front of the Oakland public library, around the corner from their dismantled encampment, and an evening general assembly evening to discuss their next聽steps. 鈥淭here are people who want to reestablish the encampment,鈥� says Allan Brill, a media team member, adding, 鈥渂ut聽there are no official plans from the Occupy Oakland movement as of yet.鈥�

The city has now weathered several violent聽clashes between police and protesters, from the Oct. 25 police sweep in which an Iraq War veteran was severely injured to the Nov. 2 general strike聽day of action that culminated in bonfires and vandalism.

But is a violent, downward spiral of聽confrontation and police action the only future for Occupy Oakland聽颅鈥� and possibly the larger movement as well?

Not聽necessarily, says Sarah Sobieraj, assistant professor of sociology at Tufts University. 鈥淚t is in both the city鈥檚 and the movement鈥檚 best interests to keep things calm,鈥� she points out, adding, 鈥渋t is not good form for Mayor Kwan to look like she is getting ready聽to unleash more police violence, nor does it help the cause of the Occupy movement to appear on the evening news looking unhinged and angry. That doesn鈥檛 do anyone any good.鈥�

City officials are taking an important聽page from a media strategy playbook, says Scott Sobel, president of Washington-based Media & Communications Strategies. 鈥淕overnments should reach out to the Occupy movement, try to understand better what they are all about and what they really want and channel that energy for something productive,鈥� he says.

Indeed, moves to offer an alternative to the downtown park are underway, says an Oakland spokeswoman, Kristine Shaff. Police are working on a permit package that would allow聽protesters to camp overnight in a nearby spot, the smaller Snow Park.

鈥淭hey are working out the details,鈥� she says, but 鈥渨e are still trying to allow peaceful expression of protest.鈥澛� In addition, the city has opened a number of homeless shelters for the protesters to use.

But, 鈥渇or most, this movement is not about a place to sleep, but a place to speak,鈥� points out聽Prof. Sobieraj, who says 鈥渢his is classic co-opting.鈥澛� Efforts at placation by giving the protesters what she says is a euphemistic, legally permitted, 鈥渇ree speech zone鈥� undermines the movement even as it allows police to move forward non-violently.

If the聽protesters are marginalized under a system of permits that聽allow police to decide their聽actions, then the purpose of the movement has been undermined.

However, she is quick to add, 鈥渢his is聽historically so unprecedented that聽it鈥檚 hard to say exactly how this will play out.鈥�

Oakland has the potential of being a sign of things to come for the Occupy movement as a whole in the United States, says Villanova University political science professor Catherine Wilson. However, after such violent clashes and the alienation of the small business community, she says, the burden is now on the protesters to prove their worth.

鈥淥ccupy Oakland has demonstrated that it lacks cultural salience for more moderate groups 鈥� like the Chamber of Commerce and local small businesses,鈥� she notes via email, adding that with groups like this voicing concern, Occupy Oakland has shown that it has disrupted the business cycle, 鈥渁nd therefore the possibility for these businesses to thrive in an already adverse economic climate.鈥�

鈥淎t this point in time,鈥� she says, 鈥渢he movement desperately needs to make appeals to the American mainstream in order to survive in the long-term.鈥�