Election 2010: How bad is it for Democrats?
A consensus is building that Democrats鈥� chances of holding on to both houses of Congress 鈥� certainly with anything like the majorities they have today 鈥� are fast fading.
News story and polling headlines this past week paint a grim picture for Democratic lawmakers and therefore for President Obama:
鈥淎mericans Most Likely to Favor GOP Newcomers for Congress鈥� 鈥� 鈥淒ems in power could be in peril, poll says鈥� 鈥� 鈥淔ewer Young Voters See Themselves as Democrats鈥� 鈥� 鈥淒angerous Numbers for House Democrats鈥� 鈥� 鈥淩epublicans Hold Wide Lead in Key Voter Turnout Measure鈥� 鈥� 鈥淕eneric Ballot Continues to Suggest Major Losses for Dems鈥� 鈥� 鈥淒emocrats Plan Political Triage to Retain House鈥�
Undoubtedly, there will be twists and turns (and probably some surprises) between now and when voters go to the polls Nov. 2. Eight weeks can be a political lifetime.
Plus, the 鈥渢ea party鈥� movement 鈥� showing extraordinary muscle in some recent Republican primaries 鈥� could be as much of a problem for the establishment GOP as it is for Democrats. And as John Dickerson at Slate points out, 鈥淭he advantage for Democrats is that they have the better organization.鈥�
鈥�, the Obama campaign operation, has been up and running for more than three years,鈥� . 鈥淪ome of the volunteers have been knocking on the same doors since Obama was just a freshman senator from Illinois running for president.鈥�
Postpartisan? Forget it.
Obama himself has largely shucked his 鈥減ostpartisan鈥� ideal, and you can expect some sharp rhetorical elbows thrown at Republicans when he addresses a Labor Day rally in Milwaukee on Monday. That鈥檚 likely to escalate in coming weeks as Obama 鈥� and first lady Michelle Obama 鈥� go stumping for Democrats.
"They've forgotten I politick pretty good,鈥� he told a crowd in Austin, Texas, last month.
Still, it鈥檚 an uphill battle for Obama and his party. Some of the evidence:
In a new survey released Friday, a USA Today/Gallup poll shows voters more likely to pick a generic Republican over a Democrat for Congress by 53-40 percent, particularly if that candidate is a newcomer. 鈥淚t appears that the best type of candidate to be this fall is a Republican challenger,鈥� .
In another sign of danger ahead for Democrats, Gallup reports that minorities and young voters 鈥� a solid part of Obama鈥檚 base in 2008 鈥� are unlikely to turn out in large numbers come November.
鈥淚n contrast to 2008, when whites and blacks were about equally likely to say they were giving 鈥榪uite a lot of鈥� or 鈥榮ome鈥� thought to the presidential election, whites are much more likely than blacks to be thinking about the 2010 elections: 42 percent vs. 25 percent, a gap exceeding those from recent midterm elections,鈥� . 鈥淎s a result, and because of the extraordinarily keen interest in the elections that conservative Republicans currently display, Republicans overall currently enjoy a 54 percent to 30 percent lead over Democrats in 鈥榯hought given to the election鈥�.鈥�
Professional political prognosticators are weighing in along the same lines.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, sees it this way:
鈥淐onditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats鈥� self-proclaimed 鈥楻ecovery Summer鈥� has become a term of derision, and to most voters 鈥� fair or not 鈥� it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.鈥�
Could the GOP take over the House?
At the moment, Sabato predicts, 鈥淩epublicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net.鈥� In the Senate, on his web site, 鈥淩epublicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).鈥�
Charlie Cook doesn鈥檛 go quite that far. His latest outlook is for Republicans to gain 35 seats in the House (four fewer than they鈥檇 need to take control) with a net GOP gain in the Senate of 7-9 seats.
鈥淭he odds still favor Democrats holding their majority, but that is no longer given,鈥� in the National Journal on Saturday. And with a campaign war chest that needs to be doled out most effectively, Democrats are going to have to make some tough choices 鈥� maybe abandoning some of their most vulnerable incumbents.
鈥淲ith this many races in play, Democrats may have to perform triage and focus their resources on those that remain winnable,鈥� Cook writes. 鈥淭hat means giving up on the rest.鈥�
Dire straits for Democrats, in other words. For as David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report writes, 鈥淭his is an environment in which any Democratic laxity or misstep can prove fatal and even underfunded or flawed Republicans can be highly competitive.鈥�
