How did Sharron Angle blow an 11-point lead on Harry Reid in seven weeks?
Just a few weeks ago, Senate majority leader Harry Reid seemed headed for political flameout.
Nevadans were down on their senior senator, according to the polls. The 鈥渢ea party鈥� movement was zeroing in on him as representative of all that鈥檚 wrong with big-government politics back in Washington. And it looked like any of his likely GOP opponents could beat the four-term incumbent in November.
Shortly after Nevada Republicans chose former state assemblywoman Sharron Angle to run against Reid, the beleaguered Democrat was trailing his opponent by 11 percentage points in a Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Nevada voters.
But things can change in a hurry.
Reid has moved ahead of Ms. Angle in the polls 鈥� by as much as seven points in the latest Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The Angle campaign 鈥� with help from an increasingly worried national party 鈥� is having to beef up its campaign staff with outside professionals. And Angle is scrambling to change the subject regarding her earlier controversial positions and assertions.
鈥淩eid has gone from being a very heavy underdog to being a slight favorite,鈥� says Ted Jelen, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. 鈥淭he fact that Sharron Angle won the primary was a major break for him.鈥�
Meanwhile, Republicans 鈥渁re growing increasingly frustrated with Sharron Angle and her lackluster campaign 鈥� fearing she is jeopardizing what they had long viewed as a sure pickup and costing them a chance to reclaim the majority,鈥� .
Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), acknowledges the challenge his party faces in Nevada.
鈥淲hile running for election is not rocket science, it does require knowledgeable people, it does require some discipline, and that鈥檚 always a struggle for every first-time candidate,鈥� Senator Cornyn told CQ Politics.
鈥淜nowledgeable people鈥� in this case includes Brian Jones, former communications director of the Republican National Committee, dispatched to advise the Angle campaign. Previously, Mr. Jones worked for John McCain鈥檚 2008 presidential campaign and George W. Bush鈥檚 reelection campaign in 2004.
鈥淭he NRSC's move to bring in Jones comes as Republicans are starting to go public with worries that Angle and her campaign team are out of their depth running against Harry Reid,鈥� at Politico.com. 鈥淲hile the Senate majority leader is deeply unpopular in Nevada, his campaign has effectively seized on his GOP rival's many gaffes to establish a lead in the polls.鈥�
The main reason for the turnaround?
The Reid campaign keeps hammering on Angle鈥檚 past statements, apparently making effective use of his $9 million campaign warchest (several times larger than Angle鈥檚).
It鈥檚 archived information from touting controversial positions on Social Security, doing away with the US Education Department and other federal agencies, and approval of nuclear waste reprocessing at Yucca Mountain (highly unpopular among Nevadans). And it鈥檚 making effective use of Nevada鈥檚 fairly small and self-contained television markets in Reno and Las Vegas, says Professor Jelen. 鈥淭V time is pretty cheap in Nevada, and Reid can saturate it easily.鈥�
There are more than 13 weeks until the general election 鈥� several lifetimes in politics 鈥� and things could change again for Reid and Angle, particularly given the sour mood among the electorate and the unknown influence of the tea party movement. Angel is now raising money at a comparable rate with Reid.
Citing the recent shift in Nevada polls, Politics Daily鈥檚 鈥減oll watch鈥� feature :
鈥淣ot only do majorities of voters see each candidate unfavorably, the number of those who regard them 鈥榲ery鈥� unfavorably is high 鈥� 48 percent for Reid and 41 percent for Angle. Fifty percent of voters say Reid's views are extreme compared to 41 percent who say they are mainstream, with 8 percent undecided. Fifty-eight percent consider Angle's views extreme while 37 percent put her in the mainstream, with 6 percent unsure.鈥�
Some things are beyond Reid鈥檚 control 鈥� like Nevada鈥檚 14.2 percent unemployment rate, the highest in the country. And as his party鈥檚 leader in the Senate, he is closely tied to President Obama鈥檚 agenda 鈥� including controversial issues like health care reform.
In the end, Nevada鈥檚 US Senate race may come down to which candidate has the lower 鈥渦nfavorable鈥� numbers. That, and voter turnout, says Jelen. Angle has tea parties on her side, but Reid has enjoyed the support of culinary workers and other unions in Nevada.
Related:
