Coakley concedes race: five lessons from her campaign
| Boston
Scott Brown went from long-shot candidate to the next senator from Massachusetts Tuesday 鈥� a feat that a Republican candidate has not accomplished in this state since 1972.
Martha Coakley 鈥� the heavy favorite coming out of the Dec. 8 primary 鈥� could not hang on to the seat that Edward Kennedy occupied for 47 years, maintain the Democrats鈥� 60-seat supermajority in Congress, or stem the flow of voters to Mr. Brown鈥檚 camp.
Ms. Coakley鈥檚 disappointments are to likely inform both Democratic and Republican strategies for the midterm elections later this year. As Brown said in his acceptance speech: 鈥淲hat happened in this election can happen all over America.鈥�
With midterms already approaching, what lessons can be drawn from Coakley鈥檚 campaign?
1. Playing it safe can be risky
鈥淪ometimes, the biggest risk you can take in politics is not to take a risk,鈥� Todd Domke, a Massachusetts-based GOP strategist, said about Coakley鈥檚 campaign strategy prior to Tuesday鈥檚 election.
Coakley was running as a Democrat in a state routinely ranked as one of the most Democratic in the US. So perhaps she could be forgiven for thinking that the race was decided in the primary. But voters were angry that she seemed to act that way. She was repeatedly accused of complacency and dogged by persistent rumors that she took a week off from campaigning around Christmas 鈥� a charge her camp denies.
鈥淸Tuesday night] really expressed the arrogance of the Democratic Party and the entitlement mentality of the party,鈥� said Rick Livingstone, who volunteered for the Brown campaign.
2. Voters are angry
鈥淸Voters鈥� positions] haven鈥檛 shifted so much as they鈥檝e gotten angry,鈥� says Dan Payne, a Democratic media consultant based in Massachusetts. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 feel they鈥檙e getting their money鈥檚 worth in Washington.鈥�
Among the hot-button issues: the way healthcare reform is being handled, America鈥檚 lingering economic troubles, high unemployment rates, and Wall Street bonuses.
鈥淚 didn鈥檛 want to complain anymore, I wanted to do something,鈥� said Jeff Odhner, a Republican from New Hampshire who drove to Massachusetts three nights last week to make hours of phone calls for Brown.
3. Define the opposition
Coakley left a little-known Brown relatively unscathed for much of the early part of the campaign.
鈥淢artha Coakley should have defined Scott Brown before he defined himself,鈥� says Jeffrey Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University in Medford, Mass. Coming out of the primary, Coakley could have 鈥減ut him on the defensive at a time when didn鈥檛 have much money to fight back.鈥�
Not doing this put her in a difficult position once his campaign began building momentum. In the final weeks of the race, when polls showed Brown narrowing the gap, she had to scramble to give voters her interpretation of Brown. In part, she was forced to rely on negative advertising.
鈥淪he was very negative,鈥� says Mary Canducci, a Democrat from the Boston neighborhood of West Roxbury who decided to vote for Brown.
4. Define the campaign
Not only did Coakley struggle to influence voters鈥� perceptions of Brown, but she also had trouble defining herself and her campaign for voters.
鈥淪he seemed as though she was running for reelection as attorney general as opposed to running as a new force in Washington,鈥� Mr. Payne says.
Voters didn鈥檛 get a sense of who Coakley was. 鈥淪he was pretty much a generic Democrat,鈥� Professor Berry says. She lacked 鈥渃ompelling campaign themes鈥� and the 鈥渨armth and effusiveness that would have played more favorably with the Massachusetts electorate.鈥�
5. Independents can determine the vote
Independents were crucial to Tuesday鈥檚 outcome: A majority of voters 鈥� 51 percent 鈥� are independents in Massachusetts.
While it鈥檚 not yet known how many independents voted, 鈥渢hey obviously went big for Brown,鈥� Payne says.
It was a group he targeted aggressively, and he continued an independent-oriented message on election night.
鈥淚 hope [Washington is] paying close attention, because tonight the independent voice of Massachusetts has spoken,鈥� he said.
In contrast, Coakley鈥檚 campaign seemed to mostly target her Democratic base.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Democrats or Republicans have changed their views much,鈥� Payne says. 鈥淲here the differences have happened are with independents who have traditionally voted with Democrats.鈥�
More criticism to come
Even before Tuesday鈥檚 election, Coakley was widely criticized for her campaign 鈥� something she alluded to in her concession speech.
鈥淭here will be plenty of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e will be honest about the assessment of this race. I fully respect the voters鈥� choice.鈥�
On the other hand, Brown is credited with running a strong campaign.
鈥淚t鈥檚 easy for an analyst to pick apart a campaign that failed,鈥� says Berry. But 鈥渆ven the most partisan Democrat would have to say, 鈥榃ell done, Scott Brown. We鈥檒l see you in a few years.鈥� 鈥�
鈥� Staff writer Christa Case Bryant contributed to this report.
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