海角大神

Ohio has taken some of the worst hits from global economic competition. But look here, also, to see the gains that come from international trade.

What鈥檚 most obvious is the pain.

Once-mighty industrial cities have lost many jobs to other nations. And here, far from Mexico, the mid-1990s North American Free Trade Agreement remains a burning political issue.
Kevin Reilley, however, is witnessing the positive side of globalization.

As manager of operations at Columbia Chemical Corp., he鈥檚 responding to rising demand for zinc-plating materials from China, Vietnam, and Brazil. After growing from 25 employees in 2005 to about 40 today, the company has just moved into a new, larger headquarters 鈥� a tribute to growing exports that are also benefiting the whole state.

Ohio鈥檚 experience hints at why trade is an important piece of the presidential campaign puzzle 鈥� especially in a state the GOP has always needed to win the White House and where Barak Obama is inching ahead in the most recent polls.

It鈥檚 not just a matter of jobs gained or lost. Trade policy also affects the price of mangoes, or even mortgages, and the pace at which living standards rise. And with the economy struggling, many voters feel an elevated anxiety about globalization.

鈥淲here you have a lot of uncertainty in the economy ... people tend to be more risk averse and want stability,鈥� says Robert Atkinson, an economist who heads the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a research group in Washington. 鈥淵ou can have the illusion that you can get stability by reducing or restricting globalization.鈥�

Such a retreat is an illusion, in his view, for several reasons. First, an outright pullback from globalization isn鈥檛 likely to occur, given the way that trade ties have deepened in recent decades. Just as important, much of the economy鈥檚 instability is driven by technological change, not competition with low-wage workers in China.

Help wanted for US workers

Neither Republican John McCain nor Democrat Barack Obama is calling for a pullback from trade. In response to public worries, both men support the idea of more federal help for workers who lose jobs due to foreign competition.

But that still leaves big questions 鈥� and important differences between them 鈥� about what policy tack to take.

Senator McCain hews closely to the traditional 鈥渇ree trade鈥� doctrine that the US wins, despite any upheavals, when it leads the way toward more global commerce. That may sound like four more years of President Bush, but it鈥檚 also a view championed at other times by the likes of Bill Clinton and Franklin Roosevelt.

Senator Obama has aligned himself with the goal of 鈥渇air trade鈥� espoused by many labor unions and others worried about globalization鈥檚 impact.

He urges tougher enforcement of existing trade laws. He鈥檚 skeptical of new trade-promotion treaties unless they contain labor and environmental standards on imported goods 鈥� provisions intended partly to level the playing field for US workers against rivals in Asia and elsewhere. Obama also voices support for renegotiating NAFTA with those same goals in mind.
To critics, Obama鈥檚 trade philosophy would undercut America鈥檚 leadership role at a time when global trade talks have already been floundering.

To supporters, Obama鈥檚 policies represent a long-overdue effort to stand up for American workers and US-based production, while stopping well short of narrow-minded protectionism.
Many voters in Ohio want to see that tougher line.

鈥淚 believe in free trade when it鈥檚 fair,鈥� says James Ciomek, a union steelworker in Cleveland.
His own work is steady right now, and the mill he works at is busy on this day with production bound for Brazil.

But statewide, one-quarter of Ohio鈥檚 1 million manufacturing jobs as of 1998 had disappeared by this summer.

Mr. Ciomek thanks Mr. Bush鈥檚 brief imposition of steel tariffs in 2001 (a response to alleged unfair practices by foreign producers) for helping to revive the US steel industry.

But in his community, he says, workers鈥� wages aren鈥檛 keeping up with inflation, and often 鈥渢here鈥檚 just a threat in the back of people鈥檚 minds鈥� that their jobs could be the next to move offshore.

One reason for the wage stagnation, he says, is treaties that have promoted trade without looking after the rights of workers.

鈥楤uy American鈥�

Ciomek says he tries to buy American goods whenever he can. Recently, when he was teaching his granddaughter to shop for groceries, he was frustrated when she successfully found garlic ... grown in China.

鈥淚鈥檇 love to see a store called 鈥楳ade in US,鈥� 鈥� he says.

Such frustrations are shared by many voters across the country.

In an early August CBS News poll, 62 percent of American adults said the economic rise of nations like China and India has been 鈥渂ad鈥� for the US economy, while 14 percent said it had been 鈥済ood.鈥�

In CNN polls, Americans shifted from neutral last October to slightly pessimistic this June on the question of whether trade is an opportunity or a threat to the nation鈥檚 economy.

By their Senate records, the choice between McCain and Obama on this issue is clear-cut. McCain and Obama have been on opposite sides of some key Senate votes on trade.
Economists generally line up in the McCain camp on this issue, warning that if the United States were to lead the world down a path of trade disputes and protectionism, growth and prosperity would take a hit.

鈥淭rade is one of the bright spots for the US economy right now,鈥� says Daniel Griswold, a trade expert at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington. 鈥淓xports are booming,鈥� he says, while 鈥渁ccess to global markets has helped keep prices [for US consumers] down.鈥�

Integration with the global economy brings not just goods but also new technologies that make American workers more productive. Moreover, when foreign companies cross borders to invest in the US, it can create or preserve jobs. The steel mill where Ciomek works, for example, has been running for decades but is now owned by Luxembourg-based Arcelor-Mittal.

For Columbia Chemical, just outside Cleveland, exports now outstrip domestic sales, accounting for 60 percent of business. This year, even with US sales down, the company鈥檚 overall sales are up thanks to those emerging markets abroad, says Mr. Reilley, who is vice president.

The chemicals are used in zinc-plating metal parts for a range of products, from real automobiles to toy ones of the Hot Wheels variety.

鈥淲e want to be able to sell our products all over the world, and buy products all over the world,鈥� says Reilley. 鈥淚 hope that [policymakers] allow us to continue to do that.鈥�

Like much US manufacturing, the operation here is not very labor intensive. In this case, only a minority of Columbia鈥檚 workforce is in production jobs. Others are technicians and engineers developing products or ensuring quality control.

But businesses such as this one add up to a lot of sales. US manufactured output has never been higher, and goods exports reached a record $1.7 trillion in 2007.

Imports, of course, are much larger. The last year that exports outweighed imports in the accounts kept by the Commerce Department was 1975.

But Mr. Griswold warns against the temptation to see another nation鈥檚 gain as America鈥檚 loss.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not a zero sum game,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e will prosper even more as consumers and workers around the world raise their incomes.鈥�

If America has sound domestic policies, that will keep US living standards rising, he says. 鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 worry about the rest of the world catching up. This is profoundly in our interest .... We鈥檙e creating a global middle class. It鈥檚 reducing poverty around the world. It鈥檚 tying nations closer together ... which provides more stability and peace.鈥�

Those nations, in turn, will buy more US goods and services.

But trade experts also say the decisions facing America are trivialized if reduced simply to a choice between 鈥渇ree trade鈥� versus getting tougher on nations such as China.

Among the concerns some voice:

鈥�America is competing with other nations to attract high-value industries and jobs, often against nations that violate current trade rules. The US retains high-tech leadership, but that lead cannot be taken for granted.

鈥�As part of a huge global labor market, many Americans have seen downward pressure on wages. Although economists haven鈥檛 agreed on how to gauge the scale of this problem, it鈥檚 seen as one reason US incomes aren鈥檛 rising as fast as worker productivity.

鈥�Service jobs as well as manufacturing jobs are increasingly subject to global competition. The 鈥渟afe鈥� service jobs today are ones that require direct human contact.

鈥�However big its benefits, free trade depends in a democratic nation on the support of voters. So public attitudes matter, and concerns such as wage inequality may require new policies.
鈥淲e have to dramatically strengthen trade enforcement,鈥� says Mr. Atkinson in Washington. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 get political support for market opening [with other nations] until you have a better sense of trust ... that we鈥檙e not being played for suckers.鈥�

It鈥檚 fine for China to be investing in world-class research universities, he says. To the degree that they become pioneers, their efforts should benefit the whole world. But he urges a battle against policies 鈥� in China and elsewhere 鈥� such as illegal export subsidies and intellectual property theft.

He also sees a structural problem in the global economy now, with too many nations relying on exports as their key strategy for growth.

That, coupled with America鈥檚 low internal savings rates, has helped to create gaping annual trade deficits.

Ultimately, such deficits are unsustainable, many economists say. A global rebalancing is needed, with many nations doing more to nurture domestic demand, while the US expands its export prowess, they add.

Part of the answer, Atkinson says, is not what other countries do but what the US does to stay competitive: national innovation policies such as tax incentives for corporate research, public-private research partnerships, and cultivating a high-skill workforce. Both McCain and Obama have some policies along these lines. Atkinson says he鈥檇 like some items from each campaign implemented, plus more.

Americans of all ages know something of the stakes and the challenges. Middle-aged auto workers have seen round after round of job cuts. In Toledo, long a center for auto parts and glassware, young people know that a factory job is no longer the ticket to a middle-class lifestyle 鈥� at least not on a high school education.

Aaron Hudson, a student at Owens Technical College in Toledo, is among those opting for a career choice that鈥檚 not heavily exposed to foreign competition.

After working in fast-food jobs, he鈥檚 looking for a solid career and is studying to go into physical therapy. 鈥淚 want something ... that only I can do,鈥� he says. 鈥淗uman contact ... will never be erased.鈥�

As he ponders whom to vote for, the economy is his top concern. For him, it鈥檚 important that America remain a global symbol of free choice and openness. But he doesn鈥檛 want that to mean that American factories get run out of business.

鈥淲e need to get some more pride,鈥� he says. 鈥淢ade in the U.S.A. You don鈥檛 hear that anymore.鈥�