Unusually high stakes in vice presidential debate
| Washington
Normally, vice presidential debates don鈥檛 matter much. Not so this year, when the two candidates take the stage in St. Louis Thursday night.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whose winning persona boosted the lackluster campaign of John McCain at last month鈥檚 GOP convention, is on the ropes after a series of subpar interviews left her looking ill-informed 鈥� and some conservatives in open revolt against her. After some stumbles by Senator McCain when Wall Street fell into crisis, the Republican ticket has been losing ground and now trails in most polls.
The future of McCain鈥檚 campaign does not rest on her shoulders 鈥� it鈥檚 still up to McCain himself to get his team back on track 鈥� but if Governor Palin commits any gaffes or looks out of her depth Thursday, McCain鈥檚 task becomes that much harder.
鈥淭his [debate] can bury any bad memories or create a whole bunch of them,鈥� says Republican pollster David Winston. 鈥淚t will be very much a high-wire moment for her.鈥�
Sen. Joseph Biden (D) of Delaware, Barack Obama鈥檚 running mate, faces challenges of his own. He is famously long-winded and gaffe-prone. So far, he has not uttered anything unduly damaging, but with the whole world watching, Thursday will be a big test.
Biden鈥檚 challenge:
The biggest challenge of all for the 35-year Senate veteran 鈥� going up against a first-term woman governor who has struggled when she鈥檚 unscripted 鈥� may be to avoid looking condescending or patronizing.
Biden has reportedly consulted with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, against whom he debated 12 times during the Democratic primaries, and with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) of California about how to debate a woman.
Their replies were not reported, but one need look no further for clues than to former New York Rep. Rick Lazio鈥檚 debate against Senator Clinton during their race for the Senate in 2000. Mr. Lazio walked up to Clinton and demanded she sign a pledge to ban large donations from the race. Lazio鈥檚 aggressive posture may have contributed to his defeat.
鈥淏iden has to be strong and take on Palin, but not in a condescending way or a put-down way,鈥� says Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. 鈥淢cCain was quite condescending [in last Friday鈥檚 debate], and it hurt him tremendously.鈥�
Other strategists have suggested that, given Palin鈥檚 recent struggles, Biden should use his debate platform mainly to go after McCain and leave it to the media to comment on any missteps by Palin. As much as the Palin phenomenon has attracted enormous public attention 鈥� and could spur unusually high TV viewership for the 9 p.m. (EST) debate at Washington University 鈥� the vast majority of voters ultimately cast their ballot based on the top of the ticket, not the running mate.
For Palin, a low bar:
Scoring the Thursday debate may not be as obvious as it seems. Given Palin鈥檚 recent track record, she could even emerge with a victory of sorts just by appearing marginally credible.
鈥淔or Palin, we鈥檝e been hammered for some time by the opposition about how insubstantial she is, how she鈥檚 an 鈥榚mpty-suit,鈥� 鈥� says Mitchell McKinney, professor of communication at the University of Missouri, Columbia. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really created the expectation that if she just gets up on the stage and strings words together and doesn鈥檛 fall out of her chair, some may go away from that thinking, 鈥榃ow, she鈥檚 not as bad as they say.鈥欌��
But, he adds, 鈥渋f she does something or says something that feeds into that notion of an empty suit 鈥� even if it鈥檚 a slight misstatement 鈥� it would likely become the major gaffe or blunder that could really do damage.鈥�
Still, the bar has been set so low for Palin, merely clearing that bar may not be enough.
鈥淪he has to be baseline credible in discussing a fairly wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues,鈥� says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
鈥淪he does not have to match Biden. She doesn鈥檛 need to know foreign capitals and how to say Saakashvili. But she does need to know how to talk about America鈥檚 place in the world, the kinds of challenges we face, and how we might best respond to them.鈥�
Working the refs?
Obama campaign officials warn against underestimating Palin. She did, after all, defeat a sitting governor in the primaries and then defeat a former Democratic governor in the general election when she won the Alaska governorship two years ago.
When she burst onto the national scene a month ago as McCain鈥檚 surprise pick, many Americans were taken by her charm, her big family, and Alaska frontier woman-cum-beauty pageant contestant persona. Team McCain believed it had found the key to winning over the white working class voters who have eluded Obama.
Now, the question is whether Palin has a second act.
As a precaution, Palin supporters have been 鈥渨orking the ref鈥� in the run up to Thursday night.
PBS anchor Gwen Ifill, the debate moderator, has written a book about Barack Obama and other young, successful black politicians. This book, due to be released around Inauguration Day in January, shows Ms. Ifill is 鈥渋n the tank鈥� for Obama, writes conservative commentator Michelle Malkin.
