As Putin seeks a larger army, some see echoes of US in Vietnam
Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 recent announcement that Moscow must increase the size of its military was greeted as good news 鈥� not by his supporters, but rather by those who are rooting for Ukraine.听
It鈥檚 a sign, they say, that Mr. Putin鈥檚 war isn鈥檛 going well for him.听
This point was driven home by the development this summer that officials from the Wagner Group听鈥撎齮he Russian government鈥檚 defense contractor of choice听鈥撎齱ere offering prisoners parole in exchange for fighting on the front lines.
Why We Wrote This
Vladimir Putin aims to expand Russia鈥檚 armed forces by 137,000. But outside experts say hitting that target 鈥� and maintaining troop quality and morale 鈥� won鈥檛 be easy, as the U.S. experience in Vietnam hints.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a sign of desperation,鈥� says retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. 鈥淭hese are not the kind of people who will show up and contribute to the fighting capability of any Russian unit.鈥�
This is not bad news from the perspective of Ukrainian forces, though the use of prisoners also raises the risk of more Russian war crimes, analysts add.
Yet as the war grinds on, it鈥檚 clear that Mr. Putin is anxious to avoid bringing the protracted conflict to the attention of the greater Russian public, which has, up to this point, largely been able to continue life as usual. The question is whether he will be able to carry on with this domestic shielding strategy moving forward.
A draft would mean 鈥減ulling people from Moscow and St. Petersburg听鈥撎齛nd they don鈥檛 want to have funerals there,鈥� Mr. Hodges says. 鈥淧olitically, it would be extremely difficult for even the Kremlin to explain all that.鈥�
Vietnam War and classism, racism听
America learned from its own experience that drafts tend to cause political problems听鈥撎齛nd that conscripts generally don鈥檛 make the best soldiers.听
During the Vietnam War, soldiers pressed into service 鈥渂rought in attitudes and behaviors that were contrary to good order and discipline,鈥� including drug use and insubordination, says Brandon Archuleta, an Army strategist and an听adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
That said, these were behaviors often linked to outrage in the face of unfairness in the draft system, including classism and racism, analysts note.听
Indeed, such charges helped serve as catalysts for the anti-war movement. While 12% of the U.S. Army was Black, for example, soldiers of color represented 24% of casualties.听
It was an injustice Martin Luther King Jr. emphasized in meetings with President Lyndon Johnson. 鈥淚t was the reason [Dr. King] was so concerned about the war,鈥� says Ron Milam, an associate professor of history at Texas Tech University, who served in the Vietnam War.
鈥淗e said, 鈥榃hat the [heck]? Why are we dying at double the rate?鈥欌��
The closest America came to opening up service to prisoners was when young men who burned their draft cards听鈥撎齩r predominantly Black men who had committed minor crimes 鈥撎齱ere given the chance to ship out to Vietnam to avoid jail.
After draft lotteries were put in place in 1969 in an effort to address unfairness in the system, privileged conscripts outraged at their own predicaments also started asking pointed questions about why America was at war in the first place.
Conscription tends to inspire myriad such questions, analysts note, unless the nation sees itself as facing an existential threat, as with the United States in World War II.
A number of zealous armchair Russian commentators are now pushing Mr. Putin to create a draft, arguing that Russia is indeed facing just such a threat in Ukraine听鈥撎齛n argument in keeping with the official Kremlin line.听
Mr. Putin, however, is well aware of the political turmoil conscriptions tend to cause.听
Though votes are less a concern for Mr. Putin as a means of retaining power, it is likely not lost on him that 鈥渃onscripts usually vote against those who conscripted them,鈥� Professor Milam notes.
At the same time, military leaders don鈥檛 like drafts either, and in the wake of Vietnam, the top echelons of Pentagon leadership fought to put in place an all-volunteer force, which ultimately happened in 1973.
By the Reagan-era defense buildup, 鈥淵ou see morale, good order, and jumps in the right direction in the Army,鈥� Dr. Archuleta says.听
In an all-volunteer force, there may be 鈥渁ll kinds of reasons for joining听鈥撎齠or money, you need a job,鈥� Professor Milam adds. 鈥淏ut at least you raised your hand of your own volition. In a conscript Army, you don鈥檛 want to do it 鈥� but your country is making you.鈥澨�
OK with war, but not wanting to fight
Though figures show that Russian support for war remains high 鈥� hovering at around 76% of respondents in favor, according to the Russian independent polling organization Levada 鈥� that doesn鈥檛 mean that Russians actually want to fight in it.听听
When Ukrainian forces struck an air base deep inside enemy lines in Crimea last month, it sent thousands of seemingly surprised Russian tourists in swimsuits rushing from their beach cabanas to their cars, filling jammed roads along the coast.
鈥淭hey hauled [themselves] out of there while Russian soldiers were dying a few miles away,鈥� Mr. Hodges says. 鈥淭hey weren鈥檛 going to the local recruiting office saying, 鈥楬ey, I want to get into the fight.鈥欌��
Though Russia requires all men between ages 18 and 27 to serve one year in the military, the government has promised that these recruits would not be sent to the 鈥渟pecial military operation鈥� in Ukraine 鈥� though it acknowledged that did indeed happen 鈥渂y mistake鈥� earlier in the war.听
Still, many educated and connected citizens 鈥� not to mention sons of oligarchs 鈥� in the cosmopolitan centers manage to get out of this mandatory military service, claiming health exemptions or student deferments.听
A draft that impacts the big cities could prove 鈥渢erribly embarrassing when the whole world sees that so many people wouldn鈥檛 show up鈥� in the face of mass conscription, says Mr. Hodges.听
It would be discomfiting, too, he adds, to establish a draft for a campaign the Kremlin insists is not a war at all.听
At the same time, the Russian military will be hard-pressed to grow its ranks by 137,000, as Mr. Putin says the country intends to do.
While government officials claim to have 900,000 troops, 鈥渢hey don鈥檛 have what we call 鈥榝aces in places,鈥欌�� Mr. Hodges adds, estimating that the Russian military is currently at 60% to 70% of its official capacity.听
鈥淭hey鈥檒l never get there 鈥� they can鈥檛 even fill their units now,鈥� Mr. Hodges says.听
Conscription would be a further admission of failure for Mr. Putin.
鈥淭he challenge politically that the Russians have is signaling to the Russian populace that the war is going well and as planned 鈥� while trying to replenish their depleted forces on the front,鈥� Dr. Archuleta says. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 call up conscripts without leveling with your populace that the war isn鈥檛 going well.鈥�
This, analysts say, is what Mr. Putin is trying to avoid at all costs.
