How big a threat does Islamic State pose to the US homeland?
| Washington
When Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned last month that the Islamic State (IS) is an 鈥渋mminent鈥� threat to the United States, a number of lawmakers and analysts seized upon that claim.
鈥淭his is really the first group that has the wherewithal in terms of financing鈥� to potentially strike on US soil, said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee. IS, also called ISIS and ISIL, has 鈥渉eavy equipment, heavy explosives, the ability to move quickly.鈥�
Indeed, many have argued that IS now represents a far greater prospect of peril to US interests than Al Qaeda does.
But are comparisons to Al Qaeda 鈥� the group that attacked on US soil on 9/11 鈥� accurate? How big a threat are IS foreign fighters to the US?
In little-publicized 鈥� and rare 鈥� public remarks this week, the outgoing director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Matthew Olsen, played down the possibility of an IS attack on the American homeland, insisting that 鈥淚SIL is not Al Qaeda pre-9/11.鈥�
As 鈥渄ire鈥� as the threat from IS has been made to sound in recent weeks, 鈥淭here is no credible information that ISIL is planning to attack the United States鈥� and 鈥渘o indication at this point of a cell of foreign fighters operating in the United States 鈥� full stop,鈥� he said in remarks Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Still, on advice from its own Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, Britain recently raised its terror threat level from 鈥渟ubstantial鈥� to 鈥渟evere鈥� 鈥� indicating that the risk of an attack on the country from fighters for IS, with British passports, was 鈥渉ighly likely.鈥�
What about this recent development?, Mr. Olsen was asked. It鈥檚 more a function of Britain鈥檚 鈥済eographic proximity鈥� to the fighting in Middle East, he said.
鈥淭he situation is more pronounced in the UK, in terms of foreign fighters traveling to those countries and then returning home,鈥� he said.
The number of foreign fighters with American passports who could return to the US has been the subject of much debate, too, within US intelligence analysis circles. Figures have run the spectrum from several dozen to several hundred.
For his part, Olsen estimates that 鈥渙ver a hundred Americans have traveled to Syria,鈥� but adds, 鈥渢o be clear, we don鈥檛 know how many of those have joined ISIL.鈥�
To that end, Secretary Hagel announced Friday on the heels of NATO meetings that the US would be forming a 鈥渕ultinational task force to share more information about the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and from Syria into Iraq.鈥� He added in his statement that 鈥渢hese foreign fighters represent an acute threat to our NATO allies.鈥�
Among the task force鈥檚 activities will be efforts to 鈥渟tifle ISIL鈥檚 source of revenue, including any trade in petroleum products,鈥� with the ultimate goal of establishing a 鈥渢ruly global coalition鈥� to take on IS, Hagel said. 鈥淎cting together, with clear objectives and common purpose, we will degrade and destroy ISIL capabilities 鈥� and ensure that it can no longer threaten Iraq, the region, and the world.鈥�
In the meantime, Olsen said, the US still regards core Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as the two organizations that most threaten the US, with IS ranking third.
This is because nearly any attack that IS may wage, short of procuring nuclear warheads, 鈥渋s not a threat to our way of life,鈥� says Stephen Biddle, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. He notes, however, that the likelihood of an IS terrorist strike 鈥渋s not zero.鈥�
Even in 2001, which was the worst year for terrorist lethality in US history, more Americans died of peptic ulcers, says Professor Biddle. He notes that there hasn鈥檛 been a year since 1948 when more Israelis were killed by terrorist attacks than in car crashes.
鈥淭he terrorist threat is real,鈥� adds Biddle, who is also an adjunct senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. 鈥淏ut part of the central strategic challenge of dealing with terrorism is making sure that the cure is not worse than the disease.鈥�
