In event of an Iran-Israel showdown, what would US military do?
| Washington
How would the US military respond if Iran attacked US interests 鈥� in retaliation for, say, an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities? What would a US counterattack look like?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington Monday to meet with President Obama 鈥� which comes in the midst of increasingly vocal warnings from Pentagon officials urging caution on any military action in the region 鈥� has brought these questions into sharp focus this week.
These questions, too, were at the heart of one of the largest US military war-game exercises in a decade, meant to mirror the conditions that US troops would face if Iran were to, say, shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The war game, dubbed 鈥淏old Alligator,鈥� included some 16,000 US Navy seamen and Marines, as well as a a contingent of US allies from Europe and Australia, and took place near Norfolk, Va., last month.聽
Yet Iran conducts its own war-game exercises, too, designed to practice how best to聽make US military operations in the region difficult, defense analysts note.
The Pentagon鈥檚 exercise, for its part, was designed to explore what might happen when US troops face threats in a populated, 鈥渂uilt-up鈥� area like the Persian Gulf, according to senior US military officials.聽
The exercises were 鈥渃ertainly informed by recent history,鈥� says Adm. John Harvey, head of the US Navy鈥檚 Fleet Forces Command.
Operating in seaway as narrow as the Strait of Hormuz 鈥� one of the most important in the world for US commercial interests 鈥� becomes 鈥渧ery difficult when you talk about irregular threats,鈥� says Lt. Gen. Dennis Hejlik, commander of US Marine Corps Forces Command.聽Those threats include the widespread mining of the Strait, as well as small boats that could swarm US vessels.
The war games also explored the threat that Iran could pose with its shore-based cruise missiles, to which US ships might be exposed 鈥渦nder certain circumstances,鈥� according to Harvey.
In any case, if the Pentagon were forced to respond to, say, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, it would likely make extensive use of Special Operations Forces first, according to Hejlik. Such special forces 鈥渁re going to condition that battle space鈥� prior to any US Navy mission, he adds.聽
US military officials have been careful to emphasize, however, that it is not their first choice to attack Iran.聽
That鈥檚 because they are unsure how Iran would respond to such an attack, top Pentagon officials say. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said uncertainty surrounding Iran's response to a a military strike is 鈥渢he question with which we all wrestle and the reason we think that it鈥檚 not prudent at this point to decide to attack Iran.鈥�
The problem is, too, that even a 鈥渟uccessful鈥� military strike on Iranian nuclear targets would likely delay Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions only for a limited time.聽
Iran might retaliate by striking at Israel with missiles, which would force the United States to join in missile defense.聽
More likely than closing down the Strait of Hormuz 鈥� which would be nearly certain to provoke a US military response 鈥� Iranian officials would choose a more subtle, complex response.
鈥淐losing the Strait 鈥� [discussing] that is fine for talking heads on TV 鈥� but that doesn鈥檛 have anything to do with the complexity鈥� of Iran鈥檚 potential response to a military strike, says聽Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
It might use free-floating mines in the southern coast of the Persian Gulf, or conduct military exercises that wouldn鈥檛 justify a military response but that would give other nations鈥� commercial vessels pause before traveling in the region, thus affecting commerce. These are all scenarios that the Iranian military also war games, Dr. Cordesman notes.
Iran might also engage in covert acts that it would ensure are difficult to attribute to the regime, such as sabotaging Saudi oil fields. Iran is 鈥渧ery careful to test out all the ways they can apply pressure鈥� on the interests of the United States and its allies, Mr. Cordesman adds. 鈥淎nd they practice all of this.鈥澛�
