Despite the hype surrounding Iran鈥檚 pursuit of nuclear technology, the country's leaders are 鈥渘ot likely鈥� to develop weapons unless attacked, the panel said.
The same goes for plans to close the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, according to General Burgess. Though Iran can close the strait (鈥渁t least temporarily鈥�), launch missiles, and even tap terrorist surrogates worldwide 鈥渋f attacked,鈥� military-intelligence officials assess that it is 鈥渦nlikely to initiate or unintentionally provoke a conflict.鈥�
What鈥檚 more, senior intelligence officials expressed some doubt that Iranian officials are actively interested in developing a nuclear weapon.
Said James Clapper, director of national intelligence (DNI): 鈥淭here are certain things that they have not yet done and have not done for some time.鈥�
On this point, the panel was robustly challenged by some lawmakers. 鈥淚鈥檓 very convinced that they鈥檙e going down the road to developing a nuclear weapon,鈥� said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina.
Still, the Pentagon officials stuck to their analysis. Though Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build a weapon 鈥渋f political leaders chose to do so,鈥� Burgess explained, he said that the prospect of stepped-up sanctions is frightening to Iranian officials. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think they want a nuclear weapon at any price.鈥�
