Kim Jong-il dead: Pentagon war game considers worst-case scenario
While the Pentagon is always planning for contingencies, it was particularly听prescient in its choice of war games the week听before North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il's death.
As one of its听three possible doomsday scenarios,听the US Army selected 鈥淭he collapse of North Korea鈥� at its Unified Quest exercises. In the scenario, North Korea's collapse comes about because of regime change in the isolated nation.
Kim Jong-il's death, announced Monday, raises questions about whether his son and appointed heir, Kim Jong-un, will be able to consolidate power. 听听
Pulled from a paper published by Bruce Bennett and Jennifer Lind at听Harvard University鈥檚 Belfer Center for Science and International听Affairs, the scenario begins with the Kim regime "embarking on the most difficult听challenge that such regimes face: succession."
鈥淭he transition from apparently stability to collapse can be swift,鈥澨齮he scenario says, and 鈥渃ould unleash a series of catastrophes on the peninsula with potentially far-reaching regional and global听effects.鈥�
Among the potential effects would be a听massive outflow of the nation鈥檚 24听million people, many of whom are severely malnourished, across the听border.听Equally, if not more troubling, would be the security of North Korea's arsenal.听鈥淣orth Korea鈥檚 weapons of mass destruction could find their way out of听the country and onto a global market,鈥� the authors say.
While war games are听useful preparation for the worst eventualities, the听Pentagon has long been planning for听Kim Jong-il鈥檚 death.
The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review 鈥� the Defense Department鈥檚 top strategy document听鈥� warns that 鈥渟tability or collapse of a WMD-armed听state is among our most troubling concerns.鈥�
But 鈥渢o this point, we have not seen any听change in North Korean behavior of a nature that would alarm us,鈥澨齮he nation's top military officer, Chairman of the Joint听Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, told reporters traveling with him on a听trip to the Middle East.
He learned of Kim Jong-il鈥檚 death 鈥渋n the middle of the night,鈥� he said.听While he quickly consulted with 鈥渢he chain of command,鈥� the decision听was made not to put US troops on heightened alert.
鈥淣o changes in听troop dispositions, no changes in readiness levels,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e听simply remaining vigilant.鈥�
鈥� This article has been excerpted and updated from:听
Doomsday war games: Pentagon's 3 nightmare scenarios
