NATO commander: It is 'premature' to talk of Libya exit strategy
| Washington
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the military alliance will take over full operations of the current campaign there, including the protection of civilians, in the next 48 hours.
On Capitol Hill, Admiral Stavridis faced tough questions about whether NATO allies are sufficiently united in their interpretation of the goals of the mission upon which they have embarked 鈥� and whether the United States has an exit strategy in Libya.
"Events at this point are so fluid," said Stavridis, that any talk of exit strategy is "frankly premature."
Senators probed the NATO commander about the possible presence of Al Qaeda elements within Libyan rebel ranks.
Some 鈥渇lickers鈥� of intelligence indicate there may be Libyan opposition members with Al Qaeda or Hezbollah affiliations, Stavridis told senators, but he doesn鈥檛 have sufficient intelligence to say whether or not Al Qaeda has a "significant" presence. This lack of clear intelligence on the Libyan opposition has been a common theme throughout testimony and in briefings from senior US military commanders. Nonetheless, Stavridis said, he sees evidence that rebel leaders are 鈥渞esponsible men and women鈥� struggling to oust the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Qaddafi.
Because the United Nations Security Council mandate does not include the ouster of Qaddafi from power, the war is expected to remain largely an air- and submarine-launched missile campaign. No NATO allies have committed to ground troops in Libya, nor were they mentioned during NATO discussions surrounding the run-up to the implementation of the no-fly zone, Stavridis told the committee.
He was pressed, too, on why Arab states in the region are not participating more significantly in enforcing the no-fly zone. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a legitimate question,鈥� Stavridis said. In the days to come, NATO will continue to 鈥渁ggressively pursue鈥� participation from Arab states, he said.
The more coalition partners, the less the cost to American taxpayers, senators pointed out during testimony. The United States has fired approximately 200 Tomahawk missiles at the cost of roughly $1.5 million each, Stavridis estimated. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 some real numbers,鈥� said Sen. Scott Brown (R) of Massachusetts, adding that the government is 鈥渨restling with cutting billions, and we鈥檙e dropping billions鈥� in Libya.
Stavridis estimated that operations over the next several months will cost "in the hundreds of millions of dollars.鈥�
Senators also pressed the NATO commander on how he would ultimately define success in Libya. 鈥淭he military mission has some clear metrics," Stavridis said, including 鈥淚s the population safe?鈥� and 鈥淎re civilians under attack?鈥� For the no-fly zone, 鈥渢he metrics are obvious. It鈥檚 no flying鈥� of any Libyan military aircraft, he added.
But what happens next remains uncertain, Stavridis said, and the days and weeks ahead will likely be "extremely challenging鈥� if there are continued clashes between Libyan and rebel forces, and if any civilians are injured in the process.
It remains to be seen, too, whether Qaddafi will ultimately step down.
On that point, Stavridis said he had no predictions. "It鈥檚 hard to say,鈥� he told the committee. 鈥淚 think as more and more pressure is applied,鈥� as NATO member nations 鈥渟queeze the economy鈥� in the form of economic sanctions, 鈥淚 believe that [Qaddafi鈥檚] support base will shrink and the tribal aspects of Libya will come into play in a way that will hopefully achieve 鈥� the departure of Qaddafi.鈥�
Not all embattled leaders handle their struggle the same way, he said. 鈥淪ometimes they stay and they fight and they die. Sometimes they crack and they give up and leave the country.鈥�
