We underestimated China, US official says after reports of J-20 stealth fighter
| Washington
As Defense Secretary Robert Gates prepares for a trip to Beijing starting Sunday in an effort to repair stressed relations with America鈥檚 biggest military rival, senior Pentagon officials are warning that the Pentagon has been 鈥減retty consistent in underestimating鈥� Chinese military advances.
This week, China quite publicly launched a test run for what appears to be its first J-20 stealth fighter plane, capable of evading radar detection. This development comes on the heels of a new anti-ship ballistic missile.
Although the United States miscalculated the speed with which China is capable of developing its defense technology, Vice Adm. David 鈥淛ack鈥� Dorsett, head of Navy intelligence, told reporters Wednesday that accounts China has been hard at work building a stealth fighter are 鈥渘ot a surprise.鈥�
At the same time, military analysts caution that China鈥檚 defense capabilities can be overestimated. 鈥淭here does tend to be some tendency to take a Chinese asset 鈥� whether it is a particular type of missile or boat or radar or whatever 鈥� and ascribe to the Chinese the same capability that we would have if we had the same item,鈥� says Dr. Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
鈥淲e have enormous experience on how to use these things. We have tested them in combat,鈥� he says, while China has not. 鈥淎nd that makes an enormous difference.鈥�
For his part, Dorsett said that the Pentagon 鈥渃ertainly would not have expected them to be as far along as they are today鈥� in technology 鈥� and that the Pentagon needs to refine its intelligence on military matters in China. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been on the mark on an awful lot of our assessments, but there have been a handful of things we have underestimated,鈥� he said.
Another thing that鈥檚 been underestimated is the development of the new anti-ship ballistic missile. That weapon 鈥渉as increased their probability of being able to employ a salvo of missiles to be able to hit a maneuvering target,鈥� Dorsett said. This includes aircraft carriers, for example. But such moving targets are tough to hit, he emphasized. 鈥淭he chances of hitting a carrier with a ballistic missile are pretty remote,鈥� he said.
Still, Dorsett said, 鈥淵es, they have increased their proficiency in hitting a moving target. How proficient? They don鈥檛 know 鈥� and we don鈥檛 know.鈥� To the Pentagon鈥檚 knowledge, China has not yet test-fired a ballistic missile 鈥渙ver water with moving targets,鈥� he added.
More troubling is the dexterity that China has 鈥渃learly鈥� shown in cyberwarfare, said Dorsett, who called it the area he is 鈥渕ost concerned about.鈥�
With Secretary Gates going to Beijing, the Pentagon will be closely examining how to increase military-to-military ties, which are imperative when tensions over maritime territorial disputes crop up, says Dr. Lieberthal. The potential for such disputes degenerating into violence remains high, he adds.
鈥淚deally, when these problems arise, we should use mil-to-mil channels rather than cutting them off,鈥� he says.
In the meantime, is the US military underestimating China鈥檚 war-fighting capabilities? Dorsett said he doesn鈥檛 think so. Senior Pentagon officials are focused not just on where China鈥檚 military is today, but also on where it would like to be years from now 鈥� namely, Dorsett says, a global power. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e pragmatic,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey have a game plan that deals in decades.鈥�
