Trump to deport 2-3 million immigrants: A shift in practice or just tone?
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Donald Trump says he will immediately deport up to half a million more undocumented immigrants than the more than 2.5 million President Obama sent home during his two terms in office. But it鈥檚 the tone of President-elect Trump that is markedly different than his predecessor.
鈥淲hat we are going to do is get the people that are criminal and have criminal records, gang members, drug dealers, where a lot of these people, probably two million, it could be even three million, ,鈥 Mr. Trump told CBS 鈥60 Minutes鈥 correspondent Lesley Stahl in an interview that aired Sunday. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e getting them out of the country, they鈥檙e here illegally.鈥
It鈥檚 unclear how the Trump administration will bring this plan to fruition. Trump appears to have softened some of his聽hard-line campaign promises聽on immigration. On paper, a Trump administration plan to deport up to three million undocumented immigrants聽isn鈥檛 that significant of an increase over , immigration experts have said. But it鈥檚 how the president-elect has spoken about deportation and the advisers he has appointed to his transition team that could mark a shift from the current administration and a return to or expansion of the raids of workplaces and neighborhoods and roving 鈥渢ask forces鈥 of local police officers seen under former President George W. Bush.
鈥淧resident Obama had prioritized the removal of undocumented immigrants that are criminals. The real question we鈥檙e not going to know the answer to is how does [Trump] put that in practice, 鈥 says Victoria M. DeFrancesco Soto, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. 鈥淒oes he fly through that list and then go onto folks who don鈥檛 have a criminal record but are technically here illegally and start deporting them?鈥
鈥淭he difference is in tone,鈥 adds Terri Givens, the provost at Menlo College in Atherton, Calif., and an immigration researcher. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know yet what the numbers are going to be for Trump.鈥
In Trump鈥檚 interview on 鈥60 Minutes,鈥 he didn鈥檛 expand on whether the immediate 聽deportation of two to three million undocumented 鈥渃riminal鈥 immigrants meant his first 100 days in his office or over a longer period. He did say that once the border is 鈥渟ecure,鈥 immigration officials would make a 鈥渄etermination鈥 about the remaining undocumented immigrants in the country he said are 鈥渢errific people.鈥 Trump also didn鈥檛 detail how immigrant officials would carry out these deportations.
But Trump鈥檚 policy speeches and the advisers he has appointed to his transition team offer a window into how his administration might go about it. In a speech he gave in September, Trump laid out a number of actions including building a wall along the US-Mexico border, the end of 鈥渃atch and release鈥 tactics, the tripling of ICE deportation officers, and the addition of 5,000 more Border Patrol agents. Following the speech, The Washington Post estimated his policies would add up to in immigration enforcement costs over the next five years.
On Trump鈥檚 transition team are several politicians who have backed aggressive tactics to stop illegal immigration. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach came up with the 鈥渟how me your papers鈥 state law, passed byArizona, but partially undone by the US Supreme Court. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) of Alabama subscribes to the approach. And former House Speaker Newt Gingrich urged Trump on Sunday to.
While the price tag for these proposals could be about , the number of deportations wouldn鈥檛 be drastically more than under the Obama administration. In Mr. Obama鈥檚 first year聽in office, (criminals and non-criminals) were sent back to their home countries each year.
Leading up to the 2012 election, however, the administration's tone shifted to prioritize the deportation of criminal immigrants through a process called "prosecutorial discretion." According to a 2015 report from the American Immigration Council, immigrants (legal and undocumented) or be behind bars than the native-born, and high rates of immigration are associated with lower rates of violent crime and property crime. Under the Obama administration鈥檚 strategy, immigration officials were also discouraged from deporting other undocumented immigrants such as the parents of US-born children.
鈥淚n contrast, George W. Bush鈥檚 immigration policy tended to reflect the philosophy that all unauthorized immigrants in America聽 鈥 because if they felt the pressure, they might be inspired to leave on their own before ICE got to them,鈥 writes Vox鈥檚 Dara Lindarra. 鈥淪upporters of this strategy see it as a really important part of maintaining the rule of law against unauthorized immigration. They believe that if you have broken a law, and you don鈥檛 feel afraid you might be punished for it, the law might as well not exist.鈥
Some proponents of this strategy include Mr. Kobach, the Kansas secretary of State, and Senator Sessions.
But Trump has softened some of his more hard-line immigration proposals. In addition to saying Sunday immigration officials could make a 鈥渄etermination鈥 about noncriminal undocumented immigrants, he said the wall on the US-Mexico border, a centerpiece of his campaign, could be part-wall, part-fence. House Speaker Paul Ryan added in an interview with CNN鈥檚 Jake Tapper the same day that Trump and Republicans are 鈥.鈥
Still, even if the Trump administration used a combination of Obama and Bush's immigration strategies, writes Vox's Ms. Lindarra, "even if it, in practice, wasn鈥檛 any more aggressive in immigration enforcement than either of its predecessors 鈥 it would put immigrants under a constant cloud of fear.In theory, that fear would be the point 鈥 it would be a reminder that violating immigration law has consequences."