'Ferguson effect'? Chicago crime spike tells local story
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| Chicago
For the last three months, Chicago artist Garland Martin Taylor has been driving around the country with a 380-pound stainless steel gun sculpture in the back of his pickup truck. Called 鈥淐onversation Piece,鈥 the sculpture is engraved with the names of children who have been killed by gun violence in the neighborhoods surrounding his South Side home.
鈥淭here needs to be a monument to this, because it鈥檚 like an epidemic,鈥 he said this weekend in an interview at his Chicago studio. 鈥淭he gun is like any other war memorial.鈥
In many ways, it is a memorial to Chicago鈥檚 recent crime spike. Last month, Chicago saw its deadliest September in 13 years. The murder rate is up 21 percent from last year.
The rise in violent crime has been mirrored in several major cities across the United States, such as Milwaukee, Baltimore, Houston, New Orleans, St. Louis, and Atlanta. Some of the possible influences could be similar, such as tensions between police and minority communities or the supposed 鈥淔erguson effect鈥 of police patrolling streets less aggressively for fear of being a part of the next scandal.
But perhaps Chicago鈥檚 bigger lesson is that, at this point, local factors appear to be more relevant than any national trend.
鈥淚 think what we鈥檙e seeing now really is a lot of different things happening in different cities,鈥 says Roseanna Ander, executive director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab. 鈥淭here really isn鈥檛, as far as I can tell, any one thing that is happening across the nation to explain the increases or decreases in violent crime.鈥
Those who study crime trends caution against drawing broad conclusions from these recent swells in crime; year-to-year fluctuations in crime rates are common and several cities have seen a decrease in violent crime this year. But those faced with the sudden onslaught of violence are under pressure to find the spike鈥檚 origin.
In Chicago, these factors include the splintering of gangs after the jailing of major gang leaders and the destruction of low-income housing projects. Lingering racial segregation and poor access to jobs and services after the recession have exacerbated the problem.
But Mr. Taylor鈥檚 conversation piece is indeed at the center of the conversation. Chicago鈥檚 biggest problem, many say, is guns.
Chicago's problem: guns
The most important difference between violent crimes here and in other cities such as New York and Los Angeles is the number of guns, says Ms. Ander.
鈥淭he Chicago Police Department takes between eight and nine guns per capita for every one gun that the NYPD takes off the street, and between two and three guns for every one gun that the LAPD takes off the street,鈥 she explains. 鈥淥ur crime is more likely to involve guns and so it is more likely to have a very serious outcome: shootings or homicides.鈥
Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy worked as a police officer in New York City for 25 years before coming to Chicago, and he has frequently blamed the high crime rates in Chicago on the city鈥檚 relaxed gun laws and lenient sentencing for illegal gun possession.
鈥淵ou know, everybody asks me what鈥檚 different about New York and Chicago. I can tell you very simply: proliferation of firearms,鈥 in a press conference after a Fourth of July holiday weekend in which 82 people were shot in an 84-hour window. 鈥淭here鈥檚 too many guns coming in and too little punishment going out.鈥
Not everyone agrees. Last week, members of the Chicago City Council Black Caucus called for the removal of Superintendent McCarthy in the wake of rising crime rates. The aldermen criticized the city鈥檚 top cop for not increasing African-American police recruits and failing to place blacks in leadership positions in the department.
鈥淢y constituents get sick and tired of hearing about statistics and no action,鈥 34th Ward Alderman Carrie Austin said in a news conference on Monday.
Increased tension between the police and communities could be contributing to a Ferguson effect, adds Alfred Blumstein, a criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.
鈥淭o the extent that [the police] are backing off, that suggests that there will be more likelihood to see people in the community who are violent moving forward and doing criminal things,鈥 says Professor Blumstein.
Some politicians and law enforcement officers supported that theory on Wednesday during held by US Attorney General Loretta Lynch as part of the Justice Department Summit on Violent Crime Reduction. At the event Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel said,聽according to the Washington Post: "We have allowed our police department to get fetal, and it is having a direct consequence. They have pulled back from the ability to interdict 鈥 they don't want to be a news story themselves, they don't want their career ended early, and it's having an impact."聽
But Blumstein warns that it is too early to say with confidence how large an impact the push for police accountability has had on crime levels this year and that 鈥渋nevitably, crime is local.鈥
How Chicago has changed
Chicago once had some of the toughest gun laws in the nation. Handguns were effectively banned, and gun shops were prohibited within city limits. Concealed carry guns were also banned statewide in Illinois.
In recent years, however, the courts have chipped away at these laws in their rulings. In 2010, the US Supreme Court ruled Chicago鈥檚 handgun ban to be unconstitutional. Then in 2012, a federal appeals court struck down Illinois鈥 concealed carry law, the last state ban on concealed carry in the country. In a final blow, a federal judge ruled last year that Chicago鈥檚 prohibition on gun stores was unconstitutional.
McCarthy says the issue is less about the laws that have been rolled back than the laws still on the books. Those who are convicted of illegally having guns are sentenced too lightly, he argues. Last week, he said in that there have been at least 150 shootings or murders so far in 2015 that 鈥渨ould not have occurred if we had stricter penalties for gun possession.鈥
last November found that most people convicted of illegal gun possession in the city are getting Illinois鈥 minimum sentence of one year and not the maximum sentence of three years.
In 2013, Mayor Emanuel supported proposed state legislation that would have increased minimum penalties for first time gun offenders to three years, a number more in line with New York鈥檚 3-1/2 year minimum. But that bill died in the Illinois House of Representatives after some lawmakers argued that it would merely increase incarceration numbers without helping rehabilitate offenders.
Crime Lab鈥檚 Ander says that while Chicago has very specific and local challenges with gun violence, guns are driving violent crime across the country so nationwide solutions are needed.
鈥淚t鈥檚 one of the most pressing policy challenges, because there are lots and lots of neighborhoods, not just in Chicago but around the country, where people are living with incredibly high rates of shootings and gun violence,鈥 she said. 鈥淎nd that has a huge impact on the people growing up in those neighborhoods and on the cities themselves.鈥
For his part, sculptor Taylor says he was floored by the number of people he met on a 5,500-mile tour of the US this summer whose lives had been touched by gun violence.
鈥淭he more I drive around, the more I can connect this issue to the national issue,鈥 Taylor said. 鈥淭his is not about gun violence in Chicago, it鈥檚 about gun violence in America.鈥