What French-Saudi move at UN means for a future Palestinian state
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Washington
France and Saudi Arabia will set the tone for next week鈥檚 United Nations General Assembly sessions in New York when they co-host a conference Monday on the establishment of a Palestinian state and postwar Gaza reconstruction, among other issues.
A key feature of the conference will be recognition of Palestinian statehood by a number of European and other Western countries, including France, which will become the first permanent member of the Security Council that is also a member of the G7 to do so.
Yet despite the fanfare, the conference will take place at a time when the creation of an independent Palestinian homeland 鈥� long the holy grail of international diplomacy 鈥� has never seemed more remote.
Why We Wrote This
The French-Saudi initiative at the United Nations next week supporting an independent Palestine, while symbolically important, is not risk-free and is unlikely to lead soon to that long-sought goal. Yet it鈥檚 worth it, supporters say, to keep the discussion alive.
Nor is a ceasefire in sight in the nearly 2-year-old war in Gaza, sparked by Hamas鈥� Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel.
This week, Israel launched a ground offensive into Gaza City, purportedly aimed at rooting out remnants of Hamas in the Palestinian enclave, the practical effect of which is to level what remains of the city. And at an event announcing thousands of new housing units for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, 鈥淭his land is ours!鈥� and pledged that there will never be a Palestinian state.
Indeed, many seasoned Middle East diplomats and experts who toiled for decades on what the U.N. calls the 鈥淧alestinian question鈥� now say that the 鈥渢wo-state solution鈥� 鈥� with an independent Palestine living alongside Israel in shared peace and security 鈥� is all but dead.
And yet, initiatives like the French-Saudi conference keep arising 鈥� in part, some regional specialists say, because no one has come up with an acceptable and workable alternative to some iteration of a Palestinian homeland.
鈥淭he events next week will have huge symbolic importance but in fact very little practical impact on the ground. If anything, they could be counterproductive in the short term,鈥� says Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
鈥淏ut even if the gap between what鈥檚 happening in the hallways of diplomacy and on the ground remains wider than ever,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t鈥檚 important to keep the discussion alive because that keeps alternatives alive that at some point the parties will have to return to.鈥�
What motivated Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron announced in August that his country would formally recognize a Palestinian state at the General Assembly meetings. The United Kingdom, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand, and others are expected to join France.
Last Friday, the General Assembly endorsed by 142-10 the French-sponsored 鈥淣ew York Declaration鈥� calling for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Mr. Macron says he was motivated to act now by the failure to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and by the deepening humanitarian crisis there. He has been further motivated, according to some French analysts, by a realization that the United States under President Donald Trump will do nothing to stand in the way of any Israeli action in Gaza.
The French president is also furious with the U.S. for barring Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinian officials from entering the U.S. to attend the General Assembly meetings 鈥� a move that also precludes Mr. Abbas鈥� participation in Monday鈥檚 conference.
Last week, a U.N. commission of inquiry found Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a conclusion reached earlier this year in a study by international genocide scholars. Israel rejects that characterization of its war against Hamas.
Regional experts consider Saudi Arabia鈥檚 decision to team up with France to host Monday鈥檚 conference significant because it signals the kingdom鈥檚 unwavering insistence on the creation of a Palestinian homeland. Saudi Arabia is considered the big remaining prize in the diplomatic effort begun in Mr. Trump鈥檚 first administration to normalize ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
Despite the salutary hope-springs-eternal aspect of the Saudi-French push, however, some experts worry that the effort could actually do more harm than good. That view was echoed recently by U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who called the wave of Western recognition of Palestine 鈥渄isastrous鈥� and said it has achieved 鈥渆xactly the opposite鈥� of what European countries intended.
The danger in the view of some analysts is that such actions further isolate Israel on the international stage, reinforcing a conclusion it has nothing to lose by acting unilaterally and resisting international pressure.
As symbolic as it may be, the international push for recognition of a Palestinian state 鈥渞uns the risk of provoking an Israeli response that makes getting to a Palestinian state only more difficult,鈥� says Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, a group that advocates a two-state solution to guarantee a secure, Jewish, and democratic Israel.
Offering two examples, he says the moves have already stoked calls in Israel for annexation of much of the occupied West Bank, while he worries they could prompt Israel to 鈥渋ntensify pressure on the Palestinian Authority to provoke its collapse.鈥�
On the Palestinian side, the symbolic international gestures 鈥渃ould raise the hopes of Palestinians in ways that backfire,鈥� Mr. Koplow says, 鈥渨hen Palestinians see that the symbolism does nothing to improve their lives.鈥�
Moreover, he says, what may appear to be well-meaning gestures are likely to lead to actions that further complicate eventual diplomatic efforts 鈥� as, for example, Spain鈥檚 recent move from recognition of a Palestinian state to the imposing of sanctions on Israel.
鈥淓ven if it remains symbolic, there鈥檚 a significant chance it鈥檚 not cost-free,鈥� he says.
Lack of alternatives
Mr. Katulis of the Middle East Institute says the path forward will depend on whether the key players in the diplomatic efforts 鈥� the Europeans and Arab countries 鈥� make next week鈥檚 activity a one-and-done or a launching pad 鈥� for example, for a serious proposal on postwar Gaza.
鈥淚t depends on the conversation it sparks and the follow-on efforts in the key power countries,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e already know that Trump 2.0 will continue to provide the block for Israel,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut that opens some space for others to fill the gap.鈥�
What some experts say remains clear 鈥� even after the devastating events of the last two years and all the requiems for the two-state solution 鈥� is that no alternative exists to some form of a Palestinian state.
鈥淚 can understand that the Israelis are not ready to talk about a Palestinian state with the trauma of Oct. 7 still so intense,鈥� says Mr. Koplow. 鈥淏ut eventually when enough time has passed, you will see the Israelis start to come back to the two-state solution. The alternatives,鈥� he says, 鈥渁re not good for either side.鈥�
