As Israel and Iran weigh truce, US troops in region remain on alert
| The Hague, Netherlands
A shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel Monday was announced by President Donald Trump amid doubt about whether those nations were actually on board.
A few hours later, it was being聽tested by fresh Israeli attacks on Iran.聽But some analysts say a聽truce, should it hold up, could serve as an example of the effectiveness of a large but limited use of U.S. military power.
The ceasefire announcement came on the heels of a massive military strike Sunday in which the U.S. followed Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. President Trump quickly pronounced an 鈥渙verwhelming success,鈥� and from the U.S. military鈥檚 point of view, this was indeed the case.
Why We Wrote This
Iran attacked a U.S. military base in response to the bombing of its nuclear sites. American bases in the Middle East remain on high alert amid a hoped-for truce.
Operation Midnight Hammer, as it was code-named, was a 鈥渃omplex and high-risk mission鈥� involving deception tactics like decoy stealth bombers, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said later that day. Not a single known shot was fired at the B-2 bombers involved, he added.
The risks extended beyond that attack. By Monday, Iran was aiming missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, America鈥檚 largest military installation in the Middle East. Sirens at U.S. bases in Iraq and Kuwait had U.S. forces sheltering against possible further attacks.
Non-interventionists, many of whom are Republicans, pointed to the vulnerability of the 40,000 U.S. troops in the region as proof of their point. 鈥淚f we didn鈥檛 have troops in the region, they couldn鈥檛 hit us at all,鈥� says Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities think tank. 鈥淲e鈥檝e given them hostages in the form of our own personnel at these military bases that they can menace. And I think they will.鈥�
Congressional Research Service, Council on Foreign Relations
Within an hour the retaliatory barrage was being deemed a face-saving measure, allowing Tehran to respond while minimizing the possibilities for escalation. It turned out Iran had given Qatar a heads-up on the barrage, which Qatar duly passed along to the U.S.
In a post late Monday afternoon, President Trump thanked Iran for the 鈥渆arly notice,鈥� adding that 13 of Iran鈥檚 missiles were 鈥渒nocked down鈥� and the 14th was 鈥渟et free鈥欌�� as unthreatening.
鈥淧erhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same,鈥欌�� the post read.
The U.S. target: Iran鈥檚 nuclear sites
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had taken to the podium in his first-ever Pentagon press room briefing Sunday to stress that neither Iranian troops nor Iranian people were the U.S. military鈥檚 target, and that the U.S. was not seeking war.
鈥淭his mission was not and has not been about regime change,鈥� he said. President Trump 鈥渨as fully committed to the peace process鈥� and 鈥渨anted a negotiated outcome.鈥�
The military objective of the operation was rather to 鈥渄estroy or severely degrade Iran鈥檚 nuclear program,鈥� Secretary Hegseth added.
That 鈥渙r鈥� was key, analysts said. The difference, they added, could set Tehran off on an even more determined breakout race for nuclear weapons 鈥� or end its quest, and get it to the negotiating table.
The American show of force seems to have driven Iran to bargain. It remains to be seen if its nuclear ambitions will end.
Iran has long been motivated to pursue nuclear weapons because it sees them as 鈥渢he ultimate deterrent. And Iran is right,鈥� Emily Harding, vice president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in an analysis Monday. As proof, look no further than North Korea (which has them) or Ukraine (which doesn鈥檛 and has faced invasion by Russia).
Given Western worries that a nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the region, President Trump鈥檚 decision to bomb Tehran鈥檚 nuclear sites was 鈥減robably the right call,鈥� Ms. Harding argued.
Trump administration officials were already declaring Sunday, with characteristic certitude, that it definitely was.
鈥淎merican deterrence is back,鈥� Mr. Hegseth said.
How degraded is Iran鈥檚 nuclear program?
Now attention will turn to just how much of Iran鈥檚 nuclear weapons-making capacity was destroyed over the weekend.
Satellites show that Iranian trucks were coming and going frequently from Iranian nuclear plants in the run-up to Sunday鈥檚 bombing, potentially carting away enriched uranium deposits and centrifuges, arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, a graduate school of Middlebury College in Vermont, noted on X.
News reports have said that the images show up to 16 cargo trucks near the Fordo facility on June 19 and 20 and suggest that those trucks may have been used to move Iran鈥檚 uranium stockpiles or seal entrance tunnels before the attacks. The trucks appeared to move unidentified contents about a half mile away, the reports said. Iranian state media outlets have reported that the three sites were evacuated prior to the strikes.
The United Nations鈥� nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, will likely have a big role to play in cataloging what parts of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program have been eliminated, and what parts remain.
For that, 鈥淭hey are going to need Iran鈥檚 cooperation 鈥� or at least the cooperation of people who know about all those assets and stockpiles,鈥� says Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies think tank.
Absent it, there is the looming threat that additional U.S. military action could be taken.
In the meantime, U.S. military forces in the region remain on alert for potential violations of the ceasefire, or pot shots from militant groups often described as Iranian proxies, but not always entirely beholden to Tehran.
Though these groups have been weakened overall by Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as by U.S. strikes on the Houthis, all three groups retain capabilities to attack U.S. military interests in places like Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, says Bryan Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
鈥淔orce protection is something that commanders are constantly evaluating,鈥� says U.S. Army Col. Martin O鈥橠onnell, spokesman for NATO鈥檚 Supreme Allied Command. 鈥淥bviously, in light of recent occurrences, that constant evaluation becomes that much more important.鈥�
Editor's note: This story was updated on June 24, the day of initial publication, with news of ceasefire violations,聽and to give the correct spelling for Andrea Stricker's name.
