Key to US response on Ukraine: A restoration of trust with allies
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| WASHINGTON
Before stepping into a t锚te-脿-t锚te meeting in Munich Saturday with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian offered a statement that was striking for its brevity and word usage.
Noting his pleasure at meeting with 鈥淭ony鈥� once again, France鈥檚 chief diplomat said, 鈥淲e have a very strong relationship, which I could summarize in two words: trust and transparency.鈥�
Trust? That is not the word Mr. Le Drian would have used just a few months ago to characterize Franco-American relations, which had plunged to new depths of distrust and suspicion over a surprise U.S. deal that had replaced a French contract to supply Australia with a fleet of nuclear submarines.
Why We Wrote This
Trust may sound to some like a secondary factor in a confrontation pitting global powers against each other. But many seasoned diplomats say it will be essential in the weeks ahead.
And it鈥檚 not just France. 鈥淭rust鈥� would almost certainly not have been the first word from NATO and other European allies of the United States in the months after last summer鈥檚 hasty and botched U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. Like the French over the submarine deal, America鈥檚 NATO allies had felt blindsided and disregarded by the unilateral withdrawal.
Mr. Le Drian鈥檚 highlighting of trust underscored the success of a campaign President Joe Biden and his top national security aides have undertaken since last fall to reestablish trust with European allies.
The goal of the effort: make transatlantic unity a formidable diplomatic weapon for confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 menacing stance toward Ukraine and European security.
After what administration officials say has been dozens of face-to-face meetings, hundreds of phone calls, and secure video conferences sharing intelligence and other information with key leaders, Mr. Biden鈥檚 campaign appears to be paying off as Mr. Putin takes his first steps in what the Pentagon and military experts say could be a full invasion of Ukraine.
One concrete example: On Tuesday, Germany announced that in response to Mr. Putin鈥檚 recognition Monday of two separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, it would halt all moves toward operation of the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline set to deliver natural gas from Russia to Western Europe.
Also, on Tuesday, the European Union announced it was setting in motion the steps for imposing stiff sanctions on Russia. President Biden followed suit in the afternoon at the White House, telling reporters gathered in the East Room of new sanctions targeting key Russian financial institutions and Russia鈥檚 ability to finance its debt in Western markets.
Attempt to sow divisions
After the Biden team鈥檚 very public adoption of the reassuring and inclusive mantra 鈥渘othing about Europe without Europe鈥� 鈥� meaning the U.S. would not negotiate anything about Europe with Mr. Putin without European allies 鈥� observers on both sides of the Atlantic say transatlantic trust is not just on the mend, but growing stronger.
And that will be important, they add, in dealing with Mr. Putin from a position of strength rather than disunity and debilitating second-guessing.
鈥淔rom the outset, Putin has approached this crisis by trying to split the United States from its European partners and to sow divisions among Europeans, the point being to divide and weaken the Western alliance by fundamentally undermining trust,鈥� says Andrew Lohsen, a fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
鈥淏ut after the intense diplomacy we鈥檝e seen from the Biden administration and the nonstop efforts to build a united front,鈥� he adds, 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 pretty clear that, at least so far, the Russian government鈥檚 efforts to create mistrust and fracture the alliance have not been successful.鈥�
Mr. Biden has kept up an intense schedule of bilateral and multilateral calls with European leaders, sharing a level of intelligence that presidents have not always been willing to divulge, officials say. On Friday, the president spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hours before a televised address in which he asserted that intelligence suggested Mr. Putin had already taken the decision to invade Ukraine.
Indeed President Macron has emerged both as Europe鈥檚 de facto leader in the Ukraine crisis and as perhaps Mr. Biden鈥檚 closest transatlantic ally.
鈥淭he coin of the realm鈥�
Vice President Kamala Harris was also at the Munich Security Conference that Secretary Blinken attended. Among several side meetings, the vice president sat down with leaders of the Baltic States, who have been nervous about Russia鈥檚 proliferating military actions in the region and Mr. Putin鈥檚 assertions of a Russian 鈥渟phere of influence鈥� over the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Trust may sound to some like a secondary factor in a confrontation pitting global powers against each other. But many seasoned diplomats say a sense of trust among allies will be essential in the weeks ahead 鈥� whether Mr. Putin launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or ultimately stops at 鈥渄efending鈥� the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk while continuing Russia鈥檚 smothering pressure on an already reeling Ukraine.
One of America鈥檚 greatest diplomats, the late George Shultz, considered trust 鈥� whether among allies or adversaries 鈥� an indispensable feature of diplomacy and a critical element in avoiding war.
Without trust, the Cold War secretary of state believed, diplomatic relations would be unfruitful, doubts among allies would hinder forging a strong common front, and tension-reducing accord would remain hard to come by. (Mr. Shultz told this reporter in a 2020 interview that 鈥淭rust is the coin of the realm鈥� of international relations.)
Maintaining trust among transatlantic partners has not always seemed a top priority of the Biden administration.
Europe鈥檚 faltering confidence in the U.S. tumbled to new lows under former President Donald Trump, who spoke disparagingly of Western allies 鈥� especially Western Europeans and Canada 鈥� and threatened to pull the U.S. out of an 鈥渙bsolete鈥� NATO.
But there was genuine surprise in European capitals last year when President Biden failed to quickly put transatlantic relations back on track.
In the eyes of many, the successive blows to mutual trust only confirmed the assessment offered by then German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2018 that 鈥渨e [in Europe] are going to have to learn to make our own way鈥� without a protective and doting Uncle Sam.
Challenges ahead
The Ukraine crisis and Mr. Putin鈥檚 targeting of Western unity appear to have reversed a deepening estrangement 鈥� a point Mr. Blinken seemed to relish in comments he made Friday alongside German Foreign Minister Annalena Boerbock.
鈥淚 think President Putin has been a little bit surprised at the solidarity Annalena talked about ... at the way that NATO has come together, the European Union has come together,鈥� he said. 鈥淎s long as we maintain that solidarity ... whichever path President Putin chooses, we will be ready to respond.鈥�
Others caution that what looks like trust-based unity now could start to break up as the Ukraine conflict deepens and starts to affect European countries differently.
鈥淭he longer this goes on, the more difficult it鈥檚 going to be for everybody to remain on the same page,鈥� says Mr. Lohsen, a former monitoring officer with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe鈥檚 Ukraine mission. 鈥淲e鈥檒l have to keep a close watch on the glimmers of mistrust that remain out there.鈥�
Among the indicators he鈥檒l be watching: How does Germany, which looked like the weak link in transatlantic unity early on, evolve as the conflict drags on? How does the U.S. address Ukraine demands for Western solidarity while keeping European allies united?
And how far will Mr. Macron take his suggestion he reportedly offered early in the crisis that a 鈥淔inlandization鈥� of Ukraine 鈥� or what Mr. Lohsen calls 鈥渆nforced neutrality鈥� barring Ukraine from ever achieving NATO membership 鈥� might be the best way to avoid war in the heart of Europe?
Continued U.S. role
Some insist that, just as it was the U.S., as leader of the Western alliance, that had to act first and most strongly to reestablish transatlantic trust to confront Russia, it鈥檚 going to fall largely to the U.S. to keep the unity on track.
鈥淚t was organizing principles like democratic governance, solidarity, free trade, and free association of open economies that brought the United States and Europe together during the Cold War. And that can be the basis for putting [transatlantic] relations back on track and enabling Western powers to take on the rising rogue authoritarian powers in both Beijing and Moscow,鈥� says Harry Kazianis, a specialist in foreign and defense policy at the Center for the National Interest in Washington.
A 鈥渉aphazard鈥� U.S. foreign policy over the past decade that has swung between priorities and sown global confusion about America鈥檚 superpower status and commitment to its postwar values is at the root of mistrust of the U.S. in Europe, Mr. Kazianis says.
The deliberate campaign the Biden administration has undertaken to reassure allies and recommit to those principles will be a key element in creating an enduring alliance to confront the world鈥檚 rising authoritarians and illiberal tendencies, he says.
鈥淥nce we make it clear we鈥檙e not going to abandon Europe again once the Ukraine crisis is over, and that we鈥檝e calibrated our pivot to Asia in a way that also keeps us committed to Europe, I think the reassurance that comes out of that can put an alliance based on those founding principles on track,鈥� he says.
鈥淭he trust reestablished,鈥� he adds, 鈥淚 think our European partners with stick with us and follow.鈥�
