To pursue his global agenda, can Biden put Afghanistan behind him?
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Washington
As President Joe Biden sought this week to defend his chaotic and much-criticized withdrawal from Afghanistan, he underscored how America must turn away from 鈥渇orever wars鈥� and yesterday鈥檚 foreign policy if it is to meet the 鈥渘ew challenges in the competition for the 21st听 肠别苍迟耻谤测.鈥�
Out are nation building of the massive variety the United States pursued in Afghanistan for two decades, large-scale boots-on-the-ground missions to tackle a continuing but evolved terrorism threat, and neglecting needs at home to improve lives abroad, Mr. Biden said in an address Tuesday.
In, on the other hand, are confronting a rising China and a revanchist Russia 鈥渙n multiple fronts,鈥� addressing complex cyberattacks and nuclear proliferation, and acting to 鈥渟hore up America鈥檚 competitiveness鈥� to meet those new challenges.
Why We Wrote This
The withdrawal from Afghanistan has fueled U.S. allies鈥� doubts about America, but for how long? Is there a path to restore American moral authority and trustworthiness in a more skeptical world?
To which the president could have added 鈥渟trengthening democracy to challenge rising authoritarianism and refurbishing America鈥檚 moral leadership鈥� 鈥� key themes he has long included in his foreign policy to-do list for 鈥渁 changing world,鈥� but which have lost some of their resonance amid a wave of global doubts.
Few disagree with Mr. Biden over the need to reorient U.S. foreign policy toward the Indo-Pacific region and to address this century鈥檚 challenges. Indeed, his two predecessors saw ending the Afghanistan War as a crucial part of shifting to confront a rising China.
But at the same time, the barrage of criticism the president has come under over the course of a tumultuous and mission-not-accomplished Afghanistan withdrawal reflects deepening concerns about the administration鈥檚 鈥� and indeed America鈥檚 鈥� ability to address those challenges, and to organize and lead the world in taking them on.
For some foreign policy experts, the chaotic withdrawal should not obscure the larger reality that getting out of Afghanistan was a necessary part of reorienting America to today鈥檚 big challenges. In the long run, they say, President Biden will be proved right, and both the U.S. and its allies will be the beneficiaries of the departure, despite how messy it was.
Not the what, but the how
But for others, the botched departure has only deepened doubts about the U.S. as a global power that aren鈥檛 going away anytime soon.
鈥淭he problem is not the withdrawal from Afghanistan but how we did it 鈥� and what that says to our allies and adversaries alike about our capabilities and credibility going forward,鈥� says Heather Conley, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a pervading sense in the administration that if we just clear out the old to-do list, then we can turn to what really counts, China and the Indo-Pacific,鈥� says Ms. Conley, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Eurasian affairs under the George W.听 Bush administration. 鈥淏ut that is a serious misreading and is not the way the world works.鈥�
America鈥檚 allies 鈥� in particular those like the NATO partners that followed the U.S. lead into Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks 鈥� had greeted Mr. Biden鈥檚 2020 victory with 鈥済reat hope and expectation鈥� after 鈥渢he four bruising years of the Trump administration,鈥� Ms. Conley says.
But she says what she is now hearing from European allies and above all the British 鈥� 鈥渨ith whom we were supposed to have a 鈥榮pecial relationship鈥欌�� 鈥� is a 鈥渟ense of betrayal and humiliation really much stronger than anything I鈥檝e heard before.鈥澨�
Reminders of 鈥淎merica First鈥�
Moreover, the deep doubts the precipitous withdrawal has sown among allies are all the more troubling, she says, given President Biden鈥檚 pledges as recently as his June trip to Europe to consult allies and strengthen ties with them in order to tackle together challenges like China, Russia, and spreading authoritarianism.
The European allies 鈥渉ave been surprised that despite the rhetoric they are hearing, they are not seeing great differences from the 鈥楢merica First鈥� of the previous administration,鈥� she says. The lack of consultation and disregard for allies鈥� concerns over the withdrawal 鈥渃ome on top of things like 鈥榝oreign policy for the middle class鈥� and 鈥榖uy American鈥� policies,鈥� Ms. Conley adds, 鈥渁nd it starts to sound to them like in fact there鈥檚 going to be a lot of continuity.鈥�
For years public opinion polls have shown Americans鈥� preference for ending the post-9/11 wars and redirecting attention to domestic issues. And as a Washington Post-ABC poll underscored this week, Americans remain very supportive of leaving Afghanistan听鈥� even as they disapprove strongly of the way the withdrawal was carried out.
Still, other analysts are adamant that, once the fog of the withdrawal lifts, the clear view will be of an America able to focus on today鈥檚 issues 鈥� and to lead allies and partners in meeting them.
鈥淐ertainly the photos out of Kabul were heartbreaking, and the very serious shortfalls in the withdrawal were disappointing,鈥� says Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow in transatlantic issues and security alliances at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. 鈥淏ut in the long run, I think we鈥檒l come to see that Biden made a tough choice that will leave the U.S. better positioned to [pursue] domestic and global well-being and prosperity.鈥�
What the withdrawal finally does is to free up the U.S. 鈥渇or more focus on great-power rivalry,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd more focus on the domestic renewal that will be necessary to rebuilding Americans鈥� support for the country鈥檚 global engagement.鈥�
Lessons of post-Vietnam era
Mr. Kupchan points out that today鈥檚 鈥渙verheated rhetoric鈥� of America鈥檚 lost credibility and retreat as a global power echoes similar sentiments expressed in the wake of the U.S. evacuation from Saigon in 1975. Many at the time declared America鈥檚 international decline 鈥渋rreversible,鈥� he says, but in fact quitting a 鈥渓osing war鈥� allowed the U.S. to refocus on big-power rivalries and to remove a source of domestic conflict.
Within two decades, he adds, the Soviet Union had collapsed and the Cold War was over.
America鈥檚 allies are clearly 鈥渞attled鈥� by how the Kabul evacuation was carried out, and Europeans in particular are worried about the potential for large refugee flows out of Afghanistan, says Mr. Kupchan, who served as senior director for European affairs in the Obama National Security Council.
But he deems 鈥渆rroneous鈥� the widespread conclusion that 鈥渂ecause the U.S. is leaving Afghanistan, the Japanese and the Koreans and the Estonians should quake in their boots 鈥� that鈥檚 to say, the withdrawal demonstrates American unreliability and abandonment of allies.鈥�
On the contrary, he says, 鈥渨hat we are seeing is the U.S. turning away from secondary problems to focus on the primary ones 鈥� and that means those allies are coming back into the strategic limelight.鈥�
Even some critics who worry about the lingering repercussions of the Kabul evacuation say there were also aspects of American character on display that should be reassuring to both Americans and America鈥檚 friends.
鈥淲e also saw the best of America this week,鈥� said Robert O鈥橞rien, President Donald Trump鈥檚 last national security adviser, in an online conversation Tuesday sponsored by the Center for the National Interest in Washington.
The efforts of service members, diplomats, and individuals from the private sector who joined together to evacuate more than 100,000 Americans and endangered Afghans were a testament to American resolve that the world should also keep in mind, he said.
Shift in spending
But in Ambassador O鈥橞rien鈥檚 view, the U.S. must now move quickly to put meat on the bones of a strategic shift to confronting China.
鈥淲e should take the $3 billion our military was spending in Afghanistan and rebuild the U.S. Navy,鈥� he says. Other recommendations: Reposition troops pulled out of Afghanistan into the Indo-Pacific region, and expedite arms sales to Taiwan and to Poland.
鈥淲e need to show that America is still a leader, that we鈥檙e still in the game,鈥� he says.
On the other hand, Mr. Kupchan says President Biden needs to make good first on rebuilding America if he wants Americans to again look outward with confidence and to support America鈥檚 global leadership role.
鈥淎mericans want to see schools being built in Kansas rather than in Kandahar,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f Biden really is committed to delivering a foreign policy for the middle class, that will mean responding to the electorate鈥檚 desire for spending time and money fixing problems at home over fixing problems abroad.鈥�
For others, the shortfalls in American leadership exposed over recent weeks call for a period of humility and assessment that will include some hard discussions with allies and friends.
鈥淵es, we need to shift to a diplomatic response, as President Biden says, but to me that means really listening to our allies and working to reestablish trust,鈥� says Ms. Conley. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 do better at demonstrating leadership,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢hey won鈥檛 believe in our moral leadership.鈥�
