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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrives in Moscow Tuesday with an unexpected card in his hand 鈥� after the US airstrike in Syria last week signaled President Trump鈥檚 willingness to use military force to address egregious and deadly infractions of international norms.

The Russians now know they are no longer dealing with the cautious, cool, and intervention-resistant Barack Obama.

No longer can Moscow simply string along US diplomatic overtures 鈥� as it did former Secretary of State John Kerry鈥檚 efforts last year to negotiate a humanitarian cease-fire to halt the gruesome siege of Aleppo 鈥� knowing there are no American teeth to worry about.

But that does not mean Mr. Trump鈥檚 Tomahawk missile strikes in response to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 use of the nerve gas sarin against civilians will automatically give Mr. Tillerson new leverage in Moscow on key issues in US-Russia relations.

On Syria in particular, any new heft to US credibility will subside quickly if the airstrike proves to be a one-time emotional reaction from an internationally untested president, regional analysts say.

鈥淭he real question is, was this a 鈥榝ire-and-forget鈥� gesture aimed at retaliating for a chemical issue, or did this signal the beginning of a comprehensive effort to end the free ride Assad has had in terrorizing his own people?鈥� says Frederic Hof, director of the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East in Washington.

The Russians are likely to take the US with new seriousness if they sense Washington is done with overlooking Assad鈥檚 assault on Syrians and his central role in a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, sent millions fleeing to refuge around the Middle East and Europe, and created a vacuum for ISIS to occupy, says Ambassador Hof, who was special adviser on transition in Syria to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The challenge Tillerson now faces in reaping the benefits of the new card he holds, others say, is that since the airstrike Thursday, the Trump foreign policy team has offered a wide range of interpretations of where US policy on Syria is headed.

Short-lived leverage

鈥淩ight after these strikes I would have argued that Trump had reinforced his position with the Russians, that they now knew they were dealing with a president who was willing to take action and risks,鈥� says Nicolas Gvosdev, a professor of national security studies and an expert in US-Russia relations at the US Naval War College in Newport, RI. 鈥淏ut since then Tillerson鈥檚 hand has been weakened by the very different statements coming out of the administration on Syria and where the US goes from here.鈥�

Dr. Gvosdev notes that, 鈥淚n the last few days we鈥檝e heard suggestions that regime change [in Syria] is back on the agenda, we had [the US ambassador to the UN] Nikki Haley talking about new sanctions on Russia over Syria.鈥� And that鈥檚 leaving aside the disconnect between suggestions of 鈥渕uch more direct US military action in Syria,鈥� he adds, and Tillerson鈥檚 statement that defeating ISIS remains the US priority there.

鈥淲hat this means is that instead of talking seriously with Tillerson the Russians are going to be asking, 鈥榃ho is the real face of the administration when it comes to Russia?鈥� he says. 鈥淭he Russians feel they have less clarity today than two weeks ago, and that is not a situation that encourages a serious discussion.鈥�

In Italy Monday on a stop at a G7 foreign ministers鈥� meeting, Tillerson used a commemoration of a 1944 Nazi massacre to declare, 鈥淲e rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world.鈥�

Tillerson will take with him to Moscow a statement the G7 ministers issued Tuesday calling on Russia to join the West in resolving Syria's civil war and ending Assad's reign. But a British proposal to pursue new sanctions on Russia over its Syria role failed to garner support.

A day earlier on Sunday news programs, Tillerson reaffirmed the defeat of ISIS as the US priority in Syria and suggested the missile strikes were the outlier and that the US has no intentions of pursuing regime change against Assad.

Appearing on ABC鈥檚 鈥淭his Week鈥� and CBS鈥檚 鈥淔ace the Nation,鈥� Tillerson even repeated his position from before Assad鈥檚 chemical-weapons attack that ultimately it will be 鈥渢he Syrian people [who] decide the fate of Assad鈥� 鈥� even as Ambassador Haley was on a different Sunday show feeding speculation about regime change.

鈥淲e know there鈥檚 not any sort of option where a political solution is going to happen with Assad at the head of the regime,鈥� she said on CNN.

Uncertainty about US

The lack of clarity on US-Russia relations has analysts guessing more than before, under what were already uncertain conditions, about what every statement or gesture might mean.

So for example when the Kremlin announced Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be meeting with Tillerson, it caused a commotion: Was Mr. Putin underscoring his condemnation of the US airstrike, or was he instead expressing doubts that Tillerson comes to Moscow speaking for Trump 鈥� in which case he doesn鈥檛 merit the Russian president鈥檚 time?

That kind of uncertainty weakens Tillerson鈥檚 credibility with the Russians. But even some analysts who believe US leverage was enhanced by last week鈥檚 air strikes say it will quickly vanish if all the US accomplished is to limit Assad to using conventional weapons in Syria鈥檚 war.

Indeed, if all Trump鈥檚 airstrike does is give Assad a refresher course in the lesson Hof says the Syrian ruler learned from Obama鈥檚 鈥渞ed line鈥� on chemical-weapons use in 2013 鈥� that 鈥淚 can use anything I want to attack anything I want, including schools, hospitals 鈥� as long as I don鈥檛 do it with chemicals鈥� 鈥� then nothing will have changed.

Neither the Russians nor their client Assad will have much reason to heed Trump鈥檚 newly stated determination to halt what Hof calls Assad鈥檚 鈥渕ass homicide鈥� of his own people.

Common ground on Libya

The Russians may receive Tillerson with little to like in what they鈥檝e heard from the Trump administration since the missile strikes, and they may remain confused about US foreign policy and who is leading it.

But if they are looking for some common ground to anchor the Tillerson-Lavrov talks, they might seize upon what appears to be a mutual interest the two powers profess to have in heading off even deeper instability in Syria.

On Monday the Kremlin appeared to draw its own line in the sand ahead of Tillerson鈥檚 visit with a statement that 鈥渢here is no alternative to Assad鈥� in Syria other than worse chaos and empowered terrorists.

A day earlier, Tillerson seemed to say something similar, telling Face the Nation that regime change is not in the US cards and citing as a reason why the same Middle East example the Russians repeatedly use to explain their support of Assad.

鈥淵ou now, we鈥檝e seen what violent regime change looks like in Libya,鈥� Tillerson said, 鈥渁nd the kind of chaos that can be unleashed.鈥�