If Trump pursues tariffs, Mexico could walk from NAFTA negotiations, minister says
In the latest chapter of the evolving relationship between Mexico and the United States, Mexican economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo has warned that his country will walk away from any negotiations on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement if the US insists on imposing tariffs on Mexican goods.
As long ago as September, as a presidential candidate, Donald Trump hammered NAFTA as 鈥渢he maybe ever signed anywhere,鈥� and he has made no secret of his determination to renegotiate its terms. It is, however, just one part of a troubled relationship between the two countries, clouded not least by the proposed border wall and concerns in Mexico about a possible surge in deportations from the US.
Yet there are many that argue that this relationship is vital for both partners, that neither country would prosper by allowing it to flounder.聽The comments by Mexico鈥檚 economy minister may be the latest round in a game of brinkmanship, to see how far each is willing to push before giving ground.
鈥淭he moment that they say, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to put a 20 percent tariff on cars,鈥� ,鈥� Mr. Guajardo told Bloomberg. 鈥淏ye-bye.鈥�
Just last week, top US officials 鈥� including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly 鈥� were in Mexico City, at least in part to try to calm some nerves. Relations between Mexican President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto and the new White House聽administration have been strained from the outset, and Mr. Pe帽a Nieto cancelled a proposed trip to Washington earlier in February.
Many attribute President Trump's attitude toward Mexico to some of his campaign promises on immigration and trade.
鈥淭he question now is how he juggles political realities with long-term national interests,鈥� Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, told 海角大神 last week. 鈥淚s the vision of 鈥榥ational interests鈥� one that is based on frustration and emotions, or is it one that is based more on the evidence and facts?鈥�
The overriding concern south of the border is whether Mr. Trump鈥檚 goals will result in abandonment of decades-old US policy, which saw stability and prosperity in Mexico as vital to the US national interest.
Yet the relationship is not one-way: The United States needs Mexico, as well as vice versa. The cross-border flow of drugs, as well as immigrants, is diminished in no small part because of cooperation between the two countries鈥� security forces. And while Mexico鈥檚 economy stands to suffer far more than that of the US if the relationship were to break down, cooperation on the security front is, to some observers, the card that Pe帽a Nieto should play in laying down terms of renegotiation for NAFTA.
鈥淲hat Pe帽a Nieto should say is, 鈥�These are our red lines. If you want to build a wall, then you will be responsible for stopping everything that comes from Mexico: drugs, migrants, and terrorists,鈥� 鈥� Jorge Casta帽eda, a former Mexican foreign minister, told the Monitor in January.
