海角大神

Donald Trump is entering the White House intent on jostling the pillars of American foreign policy, from relations with China and Mexico to US leadership of postwar international institutions.

But perhaps the most significant looming upheaval is a shift away from US support for European integration and a tempering of America鈥檚 leadership role in Europe鈥檚 defense and security.

The latest sign that Mr. Trump plans to blaze a new path for US-Europe relations came in a weekend interview he gave the Times of London and Germany鈥檚 Bild in which he expressed indifference to prospects for the European Union.

Predicting further disintegration of the EU following Britain鈥檚 vote last summer to leave the 28-nation union, Trump said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it matters much for the United States.鈥� Moreover, he repeated his campaign assessment that NATO is 鈥渙bsolete鈥� and criticized Alliance members that don鈥檛 pay their share of Europe鈥檚 defense costs.

Both US leadership of NATO and support for Europe鈥檚 political and economic integration have been pillars of US transatlantic policy since World War II. President Obama over his tenure expressed mounting frustration with what he called Europe鈥檚 鈥渇ree riders鈥� that fail to meet their defense obligations, but he stuck with the conventional internationalist vision of Democrats and Republicans alike that an integrated Europe under the NATO umbrella is good for US security and prosperity.

But European leaders鈥� immediate shock and dismay in response to Trump鈥檚 latest signs of euroskepticism say more about Europe than the US, some regional analysts say.

鈥淚f the Europeans are shocked and horrified at what Trump鈥檚 saying, all it tells me is that they are terrible analysts who simply refuse to see what鈥� going on,鈥� says John Hulsman, a transatlantic affairs expert who heads his own global risk consulting firm in Germany. 鈥淭he European elites for whom Europe is a religion thought that Trump the president would adopt the faith and drop the heretical views of Trump the candidate,鈥� he adds, 鈥渟o it鈥檚 a shock to them that he means what he says.鈥�

Germany astonished

EU foreign ministers gathering in Brussels Monday had little good to say about Trump鈥檚 comments, with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier summing up the reaction among his colleagues and in European capitals as one of 鈥渁stonishment.鈥�

The one outlier was Britain鈥檚 Boris Johnson, who called Trump鈥檚 comments 鈥渧ery good news.鈥� The foreign secretary noted that the incoming US president, who supported 鈥淏rexit鈥� (Britan鈥檚 exit from the EU), said in the interview that he understands people鈥檚 desire to assert national identity 鈥� and that he intends to quickly negotiate a new free-trade accord with Britain following its EU divorce.

EU leaders are accustomed to US presidents who back Europe鈥檚 integration as good not just for Europe but for the US as well. Mr. Obama made a point of visiting Britain before the Brexit vote last summer to argue against the ultimately successful measure.

This year European leaders face a tough electoral calendar with potentially devastating results for the European project in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and possibly Italy. They worry an anti-Europe cheerleader in Washington could whip up the nationalist, anti-integration wave, Another concern is that Trump could foster better relations with Russia at Europe's expense.

Senior Trump aides including Steve Bannon, the conservative nationalist who will be a senior White House adviser, have worked with some of Europe鈥檚 top anti-EU and anti-immigrant movements, including in France. France holds presidential elections in April, and a surprise victory by the far-right National Front would likely spell the EU鈥檚 doom, analysts say.

Moreover, the incoming Trump team has been pressing European officials for insight into anti-integration forces, according to some officials who have spoken up.

Anthony Gardner, the US ambassador to the EU, told reporters in Brussels Friday that he鈥檇 heard that the overriding interest of transition team officials contacting EU officials was 鈥淲hat country is about to leave next after the U.K.?鈥�

Ambassador Gardner, who will be out of a job Friday, along with all of Obama鈥檚 political ambassadorial appointments, called it 鈥渓unacy鈥� for the US to encourage the EU鈥檚 disintegration. 鈥淔or us to be the cheerleaders of Brexit鈥� and to encourage more Brexits on the road ahead 鈥渋s the height of folly,鈥� he said.

A more moderate cabinet?

Some Europeans 鈥� including some of the foreign ministers responding Monday to Trump鈥檚 weekend pronouncements 鈥� say they are counting on some of Trump鈥檚 cabinet appointments, some of whom offered more Euro-friendly views in confirmation testimony last week. Trump鈥檚 nominee for defense secretary, retired Gen. James Mattis, assured senators of his full commitment to the NATO Alliance, for example.

But others say Europeans are kidding themselves if they think they can rely on Trump鈥檚 appointments to carry the day on US Europe policy.

Mr. Hulsman says Europeans could demonstrate their commitment to transatlantic relations in the dawning 鈥渘ew era鈥� by first making good on the commitment of all NATO members to spend 2 percent of national GDP on defense 鈥� a pledge only a few NATO members meet.

鈥淓uropeans are now suddenly clinging to General Mattis like he鈥檚 going to stave off reality for them, and he鈥檚 not,鈥� Hulsman says. 鈥淭he way to reconcile the Mattis-Trump positions is for Europe to step up and meet the 2 percent commitment, not to try to hide from it,鈥� he adds.

Europeans have grown accustomed to 鈥淲ilsonian鈥� American leaders who left unquestioned America鈥檚 leadership of the postwar internationalist system, Hulsman says, but he adds that now they must adjust 鈥� and quickly 鈥� to a 鈥淛acksonian鈥� and more nationalist US worldview promoted by Trump.

鈥淭he Europeans hold the solution to their transatlantic problem in their own hands,鈥� Hulsman says. 鈥淚f they do the right things 鈥� take actions like meeting the 2 percent NATO commitment or if the EU proves itself to be a viable partner of the US on key issues 鈥� then the doubts about NATO and the EU will go away. If they do the practical stuff,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢hey鈥檒l find the Americans even with a President Trump are ready to work with them, so it鈥檚 up to them.鈥�