海角大神

One day after President Obama announced a series of sanctions against Russia for tampering with the US election 鈥� and that 35 suspected spies would be given 72 hours to leave the country 鈥� Russia announced Friday that its own, tit-for-tat diplomatic retaliation was in the works.

That was pending required approval by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in the end chose to send perhaps an even stronger message by not expelling US diplomats at all, signaling that he is content biding his time until America鈥檚 new president takes charge Jan. 20.

President-elect Donald Trump has resolutely declined to acknowledge any Russian involvement hacking into the Democratic presidential candidate鈥檚 emails, and added that these charges are the stuff of sore-loserdom on the part of his political opponents.

This week, he stayed that course.

鈥淚t鈥檚 time for our country to move on to bigger and better things,鈥� Mr. Trump said in a statement. Despite his skepticism, he added that he would go ahead and meet with US intelligence officials next week, 鈥渋n order to be updated on the facts of this situation.鈥�

Kellyanne Conway, who will serve as a key counselor in the Trump White House, speculated that Obama鈥檚 moves this week were designed to 鈥渂ox-in鈥� the new president.

鈥淚 will tell you that even those who are sympathetic to President Obama on most issues are saying that part of the reason he did this today was to, quote, 鈥榖ox in鈥� President-elect Trump,鈥� she told CNN Thursday.

That鈥檚 about right, analysts agree. But they don鈥檛 see it as a purely politically motivated ploy. Foreign meddling in a US election is a matter of bipartisan concern, and one that elected leaders of both parties have said they are not comfortable having brushed under the rug.

While the driving impetus behind the sanctions is to send a signal to Mr. Putin that, 鈥淲e know what you did and we don't approve of it,鈥� a close second point of the new moves is to force Trump to once again clearly state that he doesn鈥檛 believe Russians meddled in the US elections, or that maybe they did but he doesn鈥檛 care, says Julianne Smith, director of the Strategy and Statecraft Program at the Center for a New American Security.

鈥淚t puts Trump in an awkward position because he has to say to himself, to the public, and to Congress that it somehow doesn鈥檛 matter what Russia did in recent months鈥� or deny that it happened at all, adds Ms. Smith, who served as deputy national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden.

This puts him at considerable odds with leaders within his own party. House Speaker Paul Ryan, for his part, called the sanctions overdue. 鈥淩ussia does not share America鈥檚 interests,鈥� he said in a statement. 鈥淚n fact, it has consistently sought to undermine them, sowing dangerous instability around the world.鈥�

Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, who is chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, along with his close colleague Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina, also a key member of the committee, released a statement saying that not only are the actions 鈥渓ong overdue鈥� but that Russia should pay an even greater price for its 鈥渂razen attack on American democracy.鈥�

To this end, the two vowed to 鈥渓ead the effort in the new Congress to impose stronger sanctions鈥� on Russia.

鈥淭his is indicative of the reality that Russia is going to be an area of fundamental disagreement within the Republican Party, assuming Trump鈥檚 position continues to hold,鈥� says Olga Oliker, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 鈥淭here are a large chunk of Republicans who are nervous about Russia, who don鈥檛 like the idea that Russia interfered.鈥�

鈥淕oing about our lives as Trump has suggested is a lovely notion 鈥� if you believe it鈥檚 a one-time deal,鈥� she adds. 鈥淏ut saying that we can just move on seems to ignore the fact that it has rattled our system and revealed some potential weaknesses in it.鈥�

Trump could certainly reverse the sanctions put in place by Obama this week, but not without paying a political price.

It is a cost that is likely to rise as a new Congress begins holding hearings on Russian involvement in election monitoring.

When this happens, Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and retired Gen. Jim Mattis, nominee to be the next Department of Defense head, will no doubt be called to testify. Both have made no secret of the fact that they consider Russia a top security concern.

鈥淚n off-the-record engagements, Dunford has been pretty frank that he would like to be more assertive in countermeasures to Russian aggression,鈥� Smith says.

Top White House officials have hinted strongly that sanctions and diplomatic expulsions are not all that Russia will have to contend with in the weeks to come, but that there will perhaps be some secret cyber countermeasures launched against Putin鈥檚 government as well.

鈥淚鈥檓 sure Putin is thinking hard about what those might be. We know that Putin is very concerned about public opinion and popular uprising 鈥� and that he鈥檚 concerned about it perhaps even well beyond the actual danger that exists,鈥� Oliker says. 鈥淭hese new measures will play on those fears.鈥�