海角大神

Venezuela sits atop the world鈥檚 largest oil reserves and its crisis isn't likely to reach Syrian levels. Nevertheless, people are leaving. First, it was the country鈥檚 professionals and economically comfortable. Now, even the poor and middle class are pulling up stakes as the economy鈥檚 tailspin deepens.

In recent months more than 30,000 Venezuelans have crossed the border into Brazil鈥檚 Roraima state 鈥� and stayed, straining local services. Countries from Colombia and Chile to the United States are reporting a surge in arrivals of migrants and asylum seekers from Venezuela鈥檚 middle and working classes.

The humanitarian dimensions of the nation鈥檚 crisis and its growing regional impact are spurring Venezuela鈥檚 neighbors, including the US, to be more active in pressing for a resolution of the country鈥檚 deep political and economic woes, many regional experts say.

The question is whether President Nicol谩s Maduro 鈥� and Venezuela鈥檚 fractured political opposition 鈥� are ready for that.

鈥淲e are looking at something catastrophic for Venezuela,鈥� from both economic and humanitarian perspectives, says Patrick Duddy, a former US ambassador to Venezuela. 鈥淎s this becomes a real hazard for Colombia, but also for Brazil,鈥� the realization is growing that 鈥渨e鈥檙e going to have to double down on regional diplomacy,鈥� adds Mr. Duddy, who is now director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Duke University in Durham, N.C.

Modest start

A combination of factors 鈥� including Mr. Maduro鈥檚 suspicions of outside involvement, neighbors鈥� reluctance to overstep traditional bounds, and US sensitivities about old claims of Yankee heavy-handedness 鈥� presents big challenges. Still, there are some signs that Venezuela may be ready to pull back from the precipice.

A Vatican-brokered dialogue between the government and some opposition parties got off to a modest start Sunday, with the two sides agreeing to create working groups to take up topics such as the economy, respect for the rule of law, and human rights.

The opposition, buoyed by a landslide victory in elections last year that gave it control of the National Assembly, has been pressing for a recall vote against Maduro. But both sides agreed to 鈥渄iminish the aggressive tone鈥� of language employed in the political debate, a Vatican representative said in a post-dialogue statement. On Tuesday, the government released a handful of what the opposition says are hundreds of political prisoners.

Also this week, a top US diplomat arrived in Caracas for several days of meetings aimed at underscoring American support for Venezuela鈥檚 struggling political dialogue. On Monday Thomas Shannon, undersecretary of State for political affairs with years of focus on Latin America, met with Maduro in what was the highest level of US-Venezuelan contact in years.

Still, some analysts 鈥� citing years of similar 鈥渄ialogues鈥� that got nowhere 鈥� caution that Maduro may simply be stalling for time as he pursues Venezuela鈥檚 transition to a socialist, state-run economy. From the perspective of some analysts, Venezuela鈥檚 collapse is not so much the result of a political standoff as it is the product of Maduro鈥檚 inept and repressive pursuit of the socialist project envisioned by Maduro鈥檚 predecessor personal mentor, the late Hugo Ch谩vez.

鈥淰enezuela didn鈥檛 commit suicide 鈥� it was murdered,鈥� said Roger Noriega, a former assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs, speaking last week at a Council on Foreign Relations Forum on Venezuela.

Moreover, Mr. Noriega 鈥� one of the architects of the Bush administration鈥檚 hard-line approach to Mr. Ch谩vez 鈥� says the US must become 鈥渕ore proactive鈥� in resolving Venezuela鈥檚 crisis.

鈥淭he economic humanitarian collapse is going to happen if we don鈥檛 take a much more forceful position,鈥� he said at the Washington forum. 鈥淲e can either save Maduro, or we can help Venezuela,鈥� said Noriega, now at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a binary choice.鈥�

Opportune timing?

The time may be ripe for more outside involvement. A number of leftist Latin American leaders friendly to the Ch谩vez project have been voted out and replaced with less ideological governments, while the decades-old guerrilla war in Colombia next door has been all but resolved.

鈥淐onditions have never been better for us to partner with a certain number of countries and develop a regional response,鈥� Noriega says.

Diplomatic efforts with a wary Maduro won鈥檛 be easy, says Duke University鈥檚 Duddy, who as ambassador was expelled by Ch谩vez in 2008 before returning to serve until 2010. For example, the socialist leader has 鈥渞ejected any possibility of working with鈥� international financial institutions to develop a plan for stabilizing the country鈥檚 seemingly doomed economy.

But with the growing potential for Venezuela鈥檚 long crisis to become a larger regional challenge, Duddy says the US and Latin neighbors have new incentives for diplomatic efforts to pull Venezuela back from the brink.

鈥淚n the event of serious refugee flows,鈥� he says, 鈥漺e have to coordinate how we鈥檙e going to handle this.鈥�