Caught between two allies, US makes a clear choice
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
For much of the Syrian civil war the United States has been walking one particularly fine line.
It鈥檚 the one between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds. For the US, Turkey is a problematic but crucial NATO ally and a bridge between Europe and the East. The Syrian Kurds, meanwhile, have proved to be the only effective fighting force inside Syria against the so-called Islamic State 鈥� but Turkey fears them.
This week the US had to choose, and the decision wasn鈥檛 even close.
Like a suitor letting one side down gently, the US in effect told the Syrian Kurds, we do love you, but we love and need Turkey much more.
Vice President Joe Biden was hastily dispatched to Turkey on Wednesday to reassure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the US鈥檚 undivided support. That includes support for Turkey鈥檚 first-ever incursion into Syrian territory this week.
Turkey鈥檚 objective: to rout the terrorists it accuses of carrying out attacks inside Turkey, but also to head off any attempt by Syrian Kurds to plant their flag along the border.
In a further show of support for Turkey, Mr. Biden warned the Syrian Kurds in no uncertain terms that the US would not tolerate any effort to turn Kurdish advances against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, into an autonomous Kurdish entity along the Syrian-Turkish border.
The Kurdish militia fighters of the US-backed and -armed YPG appear to have gotten the message. In tacit acknowledgment of US leverage, the Syrian Kurds on Thursday pulled back from territory along the border that they had seized from the Islamic State, which was of particular concern to Turkey.听
The Turkish government, which is wary of the YPG鈥檚 links to Turkey鈥檚 outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, demanded Thursday that the Syrian Kurds withdraw farther, to east of the Euphrates River.
Broader concern about US-Turkey ties
Biden鈥檚 balancing act this week reflects not just US concerns over the repercussions of the battle against the Islamic State but broader worries about the direction of relations with Turkey and its long-term geopolitical orientation, regional analysts say.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how many alarm bells were ringing in the White House, whether it was one, two, three, or all four, but clearly they realize now that a relationship so crucial to US security doctrine for the past 70 years is in trouble,鈥� says John Hannah, a former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration and now a senior counselor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.
鈥淲e have a deep interest in stabilizing the relationship and putting a floor underneath it,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 what Biden鈥檚 salvage operation was about.鈥澨�
US relations with Turkey have been testy over Turkey鈥檚 refusal to fully engage in the US-led coalition against the Islamic State. It took months of intense diplomatic pressure from the US last year for Turkey to finally allow the US to use NATO鈥檚 Incirlik air base in southern Turkey to launch air strikes against the Islamic State in Syria.
But rocky relations sank to new depths in the wake of the attempted coup against Mr. Erdogan鈥檚 government in July. There have been Turkish accusations of US backing for the man the Turks accuse of masterminding the coup, the cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania.
Biden was emphatic in his support for Turkish 鈥渄emocracy鈥� in his public comments. And听in what also appeared to mitigate the intense anti-American sentiments that have swept Turkey since the failed coup, Biden was effusive in his praise for the Turkish people鈥檚 鈥渉eroic鈥� defense of their democracy in the coup鈥檚 aftermath.
Just how far those soothing words will have gone in reversing the 鈥渇ree fall鈥� in US-Turkish relations remains to be seen, Mr. Hannah says. 鈥淓rdogan is a difficult character with objectives in Turkey that in many cases remain quite at odds with US interests,鈥� he says. 听 听
Uncertain future for Syrian Kurds
Where this leaves the Syrian Kurds is unclear, but regional analysts are wondering if the population鈥檚 day in the sun is over.
鈥淔or a while there, things were going great for them. Not only did they have the US on their side but Russia and Iran seemed to be helping them as well,鈥� says Amberin Zaman, a Turkish journalist and public policy fellow at the Wilson Center鈥檚 Global Europe Program in Washington.
But now, she notes that Turkey is not just talking to the US again but is mending fences with Russia and Iran as well, 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 squeezing them.鈥�
A heady YPG may also have overstepped its bounds during an operation earlier this month, Ms. Zaman says.
鈥淭urkey was guaranteed by the US that once the earlier operation [to take the strategic border-area town of Manbij] was complete, the YPG would withdraw,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut instead the YPG continued its provocative movement farther north鈥� toward Turkey.
鈥淭hat,鈥� she adds, 鈥減ut the US in the position of the ally that doesn鈥檛 keep its promises.鈥�
For the Syrian Kurds, much will now depend on Turkey鈥檚 next steps. 鈥淚s Turkey now in Syria for the long haul?鈥� Zaman asks.
Whatever the case, the Kurdish question will remain thorny for US-Turkish relations, she adds.
鈥淭he Kurds aren鈥檛 going to just pick up and disappear,鈥� she says. 鈥淔or Turkey, this is now a transnational problem.鈥�
Moreover, YPG remains a valuable asset against both the Islamic State and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, so Washington is unlikely to forsake it completely.
鈥淚f the incursion turns into a broader assault against the Kurds that depletes them as a critical fighting force against鈥� the Islamic State, says Hannah, 鈥渢hat could certainly lead to a renewal of serious tensions in Turkish-US relations.鈥澨�
