海角大神

When Secretary of State John Kerry raises the Stars and Stripes over the reopened US Embassy in Havana Friday, there will no longer be a menacing billboard blaring an anti-imperialist message from across the street.

And no longer will Cuban security authorities be taking down the name of every Cuban citizen entering the American diplomatic mission 鈥� as happened for years until the two long-estranged governments reopened their respective embassies last month.

But as symbolically significant as Friday鈥檚 ceremony along Havana鈥檚 waterfront Malec贸n will be 鈥� it will be the first visit to Cuba by a secretary of State since 1945 鈥� it remains unclear how much real change the warm-up in US-Cuba relations will bring.

For both bilateral government relations and the Cuban people, experts in US-Cuba relations predict change will occur, but will be slow.

鈥淐uba is changing, but that change is not happening fast enough. Cuba needs to speed up the process of change,鈥� says Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of the Cuba Study Group, an organization of Cuban-Americans supporting President Obama鈥檚 opening to Cuba.

Change, he says, will be slowed by drags on the process both from inside Cuba and from the United States. The US embargo, which can be lifted only by Congress, will continue to act as a brake on change, he says, even as the Cuban government鈥檚 fears of losing control of the country鈥檚 political and economic evolution join in slowing things down.

鈥淐uba cannot change as long as the embargo is in force,鈥� says Mr. Saladrigas, who blames the trade impediment for limiting the ability of US businesses to interact with Cubans and encourage their entrepreneurial spirit.

He also blames a timid and wary Cuban government for the slow pace of change. Noting that the communist government鈥檚 much-ballyhooed list of allowed private-sector self-employment activities has not changed in four years, he says, 鈥淭hat鈥檚 been a disappointment.... You cannot ignite an economy by going so slow.鈥�

Evidence that the US also intends to go slow in pressing for change in Cuba could be found in Friday鈥檚 agenda.

Secretary Kerry鈥檚 day in Havana is expected to be heavy on symbolism yet cautious in terms of its political engagement with Cubans. The US has not invited to Friday鈥檚 flag-raising ceremony any of the political dissidents it has worked with for years to foster political change in Cuba, State Department officials confirmed Wednesday.

In interviews this week, Kerry characterized the ceremony as a 鈥済overnment-to-government鈥� affair that wouldn鈥檛 have the space to accommodate everyone. He said he would meet later in the day with dissidents and human rights groups.

Kerry is now expected to hold a separate flag-raising ceremony with human rights advocates and other representatives of Cuban civil society at the residence of the Embassy鈥檚 chief of mission.

State Department officials said the two-ceremony solution would avoid the prospect of Cuban government officials boycotting the Embassy ceremony 鈥� a slap that would have gotten reestablished relations off to a sour start.

But critics of Mr. Obama鈥檚 normalization of relations with Cuba quickly jumped on the relegation of dissidents to a side ceremony as further proof of what they see as the administration鈥檚 willingness to bend over backward to meet Cuban government demands.

鈥淐uban dissidents are the legitimate representatives of the Cuban people and it is they who deserve America鈥檚 red carpet treatment, not Castro regime officials,鈥� Republican presidential candidate and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said in a statement Wednesday. He called Kerry鈥檚 arrangement for a separate low-key meeting with dissidents a 鈥渟lap in the face鈥� to Cuba鈥檚 democracy advocates.

The sanitized guest list at the Embassy鈥檚 flag-raising ceremony may ensure attendance by high-level Cuban officials, but that does not mean the Cuban government has gotten over its suspicions of US intentions, say some Cuban experts close to the government鈥檚 thinking.

A sizable share of the Cuban government and political elite suspects that the heralded Obama opening to Cuba is really only a 鈥渃hange in tactics,鈥� says Carlos Alzugaray Treto, a professor at the University of Havana鈥檚 Center for Hemispheric and United States Studies.

The fear is that the new US approach to Cuba is still about 鈥渞egime change,鈥� he says, only now it鈥檚 in seductive clothing. 鈥淧olitically it鈥檚 like the Roberta Flack song, it鈥檚 鈥楰illing me softly with [your] song,鈥� 鈥� says Professor Alzugaray, who like Saladrigas spoke Thursday on a conference call arranged by the Wilson Center in Washington.

The mantra for that part of the government is, 鈥淲e cannot trust these guys,鈥� Alzugaray says. Reinforcing that sector鈥檚 skepticism is a continuation of what the former Cuban diplomat calls 鈥渟ubversive policies towards Cuba,鈥� including US government TV and radio broadcasts into Cuba, the US military base on Cuban territory at Guant谩namo, and especially the embargo.

鈥淭he embargo is the symbol of the regime-change policy of the US towards Cuba,鈥� he says.

Still, Alzugaray says change is coming to Cuba, nudged forward by more than just the normalization of relations with the US. Other 鈥渂ig change elements鈥� at work, he says, are a continuing transition to a new economic model and the country鈥檚 鈥済enerational transition鈥� 鈥� from the generation of the revolution to a much younger generation.

Those forces will also usher in new pressures for political change and an 鈥渆xpansion of the democratic bases of Cuban society,鈥� Alzugaray says.

But those pressures for change will continue to be restrained by the decades-old 鈥渟iege mentality鈥� in Cuba engendered by the US trade embargo. So his advice to Americans who want to see change in Cuba? Lift the embargo.

鈥淚f you lift that,鈥� he says, 鈥渢here will be more stimulus for a debate in Cuba.鈥�