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The potentially historic choice that President Obama has tried to avoid 鈥� providing military backing to Ukraine and risking a new cold war with Russia 鈥� may be no longer avoidable.

Secretary of State John Kerry was in Kiev Thursday insisting diplomacy is still the preferred path forward. But he also warned Russia that the United States needs to see that Russia also wants a diplomatic solution to the deepening conflict with Ukraine.

With pressure building on Mr. Obama in Congress, among influential former administration officials, and even in some quarters of NATO, it appears that the Obama needs to see something positive from Russian President Vladimir Putin very soon.

鈥淭he president is running out of time for his preferred diplomatic approach, with its emphasis on sanctions, to work,鈥� says Nikolas Gvosdev, a professor of national security studies at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. 鈥淏ut I think the White House is also aware that a new direction now is not just a matter of a few crates of arms, but a decision with deep and long-term strategic impact on everything from US-Russia relations to US goals in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific.鈥�

Mr. Gvosdev likens the decision to the president鈥檚 decision in August 2013 not to launch airstrikes against Syria over its use of chemical weapons. That U-turn came after Russia agreed to join the US in a plan to remove Syria鈥檚 chemical weapons. Gvosdev wonders if Mr. Putin might once again provide the diplomatic escape hatch Obama needs to put off providing Ukraine with lethal assistance.

鈥淚n that case [Obama] got the diplomatic out from Moscow, and you have to wonder if maybe that鈥檚 what the White House is hoping for again,鈥� says Gvosdev, who specializes in Russia and Eastern Europe.

The next few days of intense international diplomacy may decide which way Obama goes, at least in the short term. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Fran莽ois Hollande are to meet with Putin in Moscow Friday, then on Monday Ms. Merkel is set to meet with Obama at the White House.

鈥淭he question now will be whether Chancellor Merkel comes with a tent peg that Obama can use to keep the diplomatic option for this crisis鈥� standing, Gvosdev says.

Mr. Putin鈥檚 top foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said in Moscow Thursday that his boss is 鈥渞eady to talk in a constructive way鈥� in Friday鈥檚 meeting, and that Putin is counting on 鈥渁chieving some agreements鈥� to contribute to 鈥渙verall stabilization鈥� in Ukraine.

In the US, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tennessee Republican Bob Corker, called on Obama Thursday to deliver soon a plan for delivering military assistance, including 鈥渄efensive weapons,鈥� to Ukraine.

鈥淭he US and our allies must be more invested in Ukraine鈥檚 success than Russia is in its failure,鈥� Senator Corker said in a letter to Obama. He expects the administration to submit a report in the coming days 鈥渢hat clearly states your readiness to supply appropriate lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government and provides details of the specific weapons to be delivered.鈥�

At Senate confirmation hearings Wednesday, Obama鈥檚 nominee to become Defense secretary, Ashton Carter, indicated he would support providing arms to Ukraine. He suggested that Russia鈥檚 intervention in Ukraine on the side of separatists leaves the US morally obligated, under a 1994 accord, to 鈥渁ssure鈥� Ukraine鈥檚 ability 鈥渢o find its own way as an independent country.鈥�

Earlier this week, eight former officials and European security experts, including former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, called on Obama to begin providing Ukraine with lethal assistance. They said 鈥渄efensive鈥� weapons such as anti-tank missiles could prompt Putin to seek a diplomatic settlement.

But others caution against rushing into a decision that could have implications for years to come.

Providing sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine 鈥渨ill lead only to further violence and instability, and possibly a dangerous confrontation with Russia,鈥� says Russia expert Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution in Washington.

The Naval War College鈥檚 Gvosdev says the US has to consider that it鈥檚 not just a matter of 鈥渄ropping in a few crates of weapons,鈥� but rather providing the training and long-term support to make the weapons a part of a strategy for success. 鈥淯nfortunately, the US has a tendency to put the cart before the horse and not consider all the implications of its actions.鈥�