US sees signs that China is tiring of North Korea's antics
| WASHINGTON
US officials are taking heart in mounting evidence that China, while still worried about the repercussions of a North Korean collapse, is tiring of protecting its troublesome ally.
Though wary of each other on other international issues, the United States and China are demonstrating renewed cooperation as North Korea ratchets up its belligerence with threats of an imminent nuclear test.
First, the two world powers reached a compromise that allowed unanimous passage earlier this week of a UN Security Council resolution condemning a聽 December long-range rocket test and tightening sanctions 鈥� a vote that prompted North Korea to threaten 鈥渁ll-out action鈥� against 鈥渂ig countries.鈥�
Then at talks in Beijing on Friday, the US envoy for North Korean issues, Glyn Davies, said that the US and China 鈥渁chieved a very strong degree of consensus鈥� on how to confront North Korea鈥檚 latest threats.
That comment came as Beijing鈥檚 Global Times newspaper, which is aligned with China鈥檚 ruling Communist Party, said in an editorial Friday that 鈥渋f North Korea engages in further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its assistance" 鈥� an unusually blunt warning.
Passage of the UN resolution and other signs of growing international unity suggest Pyongyang should consider itself on notice, some regional analysts say.
鈥淎 new game is on with North Korea,鈥� and this week鈥檚 UN resolution 鈥渋ndicates that any new nuke test or missile launch will bring yet another round of even stronger and more targeted sanctions,鈥� says George Lopez, a former UN monitor of North Korea sanctions and a professor of peace studies at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind.
The new environment 鈥渋s both the best and the worst for the Obama administration,鈥� Professor Lopez says: The 鈥渨orst鈥� because any a nuclear test would lead to Republican criticism of his foreign policy, but the 鈥渂est鈥� because a test would almost certainly present Obama with the 鈥渙pportunity鈥� to show that the world 鈥� including the Chinese and Russians 鈥� is ready for 鈥渕eaningful united action.鈥澛� 聽聽
Some analysts speculate that Pyongyang is willing to risk a round of tougher sanctions because its 2012 harvest was better than anticipated. The new round of belligerence, particularly towards the US 鈥� which it labeled 鈥渢he sworn enemy of the Korean people鈥� this week 鈥� may be aimed at rattling the US into direct talks.
The ultimate goal of the North鈥檚 dictatorial regime is to achieve recognition from the US and to sign a non-aggression treaty with Washington, analysts say.
But there also could be technical reasons for carrying out another nuclear test, nuclear experts say. The North may want to see if it has successfully miniaturized the crude weapons of tests in 2006 and 2009, they say. In addition, after last month鈥檚 long-range rocket test, a nuclear test might be aimed at demonstrating that the country is capable of mounting a weapon on a missile.
Lopez says he expects the climate around the North Korea issue to 鈥済et a little more dangerous 鈥� before it has a chance to get better.鈥� He expects a nuclear test sometime in the next three months, which he guesses will lead to tough new sanctions, and then a return to six-party talks on the North鈥檚 nuclear program.
While he doesn鈥檛 want to downplay the risks ahead, Lopez points out that North Korea is 鈥測ears away鈥� from 鈥渢aking an explosive device and successfully putting it on a missile,鈥� according to nuclear experts.
