海角大神

With world powers playing a bit of brinksmanship over international action on Syria, Syria鈥檚 largest opposition coalition is presenting an ultimatum of its own: Either the UN Security Council passes a resolution with real consequences targeting President Bashar al-Assad and his regime鈥檚 violence, or the opposition will turn elsewhere for the means to defend itself and the Syrian people.

The implication of the opposition鈥檚 message is that the Security Council鈥檚 failure to finally act on a crisis that has left it paralyzed for over a year will lead to the full-blown civil war and wider regional conflict that world powers say they dread.

鈥淲hat we are saying here is that if there is no possibility of counting on what is the legitimate mandate of the United Nations Security Council, then we have other options,鈥� says Bassma Kodmani, head of foreign relations for the Syrian National Council (SNC) executive office. 鈥淚f the door is closed in the face of the Syrian people, then we need to explore other scenarios.鈥�

Dr. Kodmani is part of an SNC delegation meeting at the UN in New York this week with members of the Security Council in the run-up to an anticipated vote on a resolution to extend the mandate of the UN鈥檚 observer mission in Syria.

Western powers are demanding that any extension of the monitoring mission fall under a UN Charter provision 鈥� the charter鈥檚 Chapter 7 鈥� that authorizes consequences for noncompliance that could run from economic sanctions to, eventually, the use of force. Russia, which has already vetoed two resolutions on Syria over the course of the crisis, says it wants only a reauthorization of the 300-member mission charged with monitoring the 鈥渃ease-fire鈥� that was supposed to have taken effect under international Syria envoy Kofi Annan鈥檚 peace plan.

The monitoring mission鈥檚 mandate expires Friday. But by Tuesday afternoon and as intensive negotiations continued, it appeared a vote on a Syria resolution set for Wednesday would lapse until at least Thursday.

Speaking Tuesday afternoon with a group of journalists, Dr. Kodmani said her organization supports a resolution under Chapter 7 as a 鈥渧ery last chance to breathe life into the Annan peace plan.鈥� She also said it is the only way for the Security Council to convince the Assad regime that the international community is serious about halting violence that has left more than 17,000 Syrians dead 鈥� more than 4,000 of those since Mr. Annan鈥檚 plan for a cease-fire and a political transition was launched effect in April.

The Syrian delegation members say they relayed the same message to the Russian officials they met in New York this week and to those, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, they met with in Moscow last week: a failure to include 鈥渆nforcement measures鈥� in a Syria resolution would send a message of a weak UN unable to manage international security crises.

Another Russian veto of a Syria resolution would 鈥渟end the wrong message back to both the regime and the Syrian people,鈥� Kodmani said they told their Russian interlocutors. The Assad regime would hear that it is 鈥渇ree to continue the violence, continue the massacres,鈥� she said, while the Syrian people would hear the international community saying, 鈥淲e cannot do anything for you, you will have to fight [this] out.鈥�

On Monday Mr. Lavrov said in Moscow that the West鈥檚 pressure for a Chapter 7 resolution 鈥� which Russia fears would lead to foreign intervention in Syria of the type that occurred in Libya 鈥� is 鈥渁 kind of blackmail鈥� and he gave every suggestion that Russia would not alter its stance.

But after Annan, a former UN secretary-general, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday in Moscow, Mr. Lavrov softened his words and suggested a compromise might yet be found between the two positions on the council. 鈥淩ussia is ready to work鈥� with its council counterparts, Lavrov said.

At the New York press conference, Kodmani was not specific about the 鈥渁lternative scenarios鈥� the Syrian opposition would pursue in the absence of forceful Security Council action.

But the implications from her and from background comments made by other SNC officials with her were clear: Syria鈥檚 opposition would have no choice but to turn directly to regional supporters who would see the council鈥檚 inaction as a green light to more robust arming and protective measures for the Syrian civilian population.

Kodmani said the SNC would also like any resolution to demand unimpeded access across Syria for international humanitarian aid 鈥� Syrian authorities have been blocking aid and denying visas to aid workers 鈥� and to provide for referring the regime鈥檚 鈥渃riminals鈥� who have been killing Syrian civilians to the International Criminal Court.

This last demand is unlikely to have traction at this point under any scenario, but it does suggest where the opposition has its sights set as it moves forward.