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The Taliban鈥檚 decision Thursday to suspend the sputtering talks it launched with the United States in January is not really the result of recent incidents involving US soldiers in Afghanistan, including Sunday鈥檚 massacre of 16 Afghan villagers.

Instead, the decision reflects the increasingly adept political thinking of an organization that 鈥� already frustrated with the direction of initial talks with the US 鈥� is taking advantage of a moment when its 鈥渇oreign enemy鈥� is on the ropes, some Afghanistan analysts say.

And while everything about the Taliban鈥檚 statement suggests it envisions a temporary suspension, some suggest that the Taliban will wait and watch for indications that the US will move to accelerate the drawdown of its remaining 90,000 troops in Afghanistan, in the wake of recent signs of trouble in the US mission.

Speculation over further cuts in US troops beyond the 23,000 to leave Afghanistan by the end of summer 鈥渋s what explains the Taliban walking away from peace talks,鈥� says Max Boot, a national security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). 鈥淭hey believe they can wait and achieve what they want after 2014,鈥� when the US and NATO combat presence is to end.

The White House responded to the Taliban announcement by reaffirming the US commitment to peace talks and insisting that the decade-old Afghanistan war will have to end with a political settlement.

鈥淲e support an Afghan-led process toward reconciliation,鈥� White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters. 鈥淭here is no likely resolution to the conflict in Afghanistan without a political resolution.鈥�

In its statement, the Taliban accused the US of 鈥渁lternating and ever-changing鈥� positions, and it said it would sit out the talks 鈥渦ntil the Americans clarify their stance on the issues concerned and until they show willingness in carrying out their promises instead of wasting time."

Mr. Carney denied those allegations and said the US had been consistent in its presentation of negotiation topics. 聽

One problem that has plagued the fledgling talks is that the Taliban wants to focus on the issue of 鈥減risoner exchange鈥� and freeing its members held at the 骋耻补苍迟谩苍补尘辞 detention facility, while the US wants to emphasize Afghan reconciliation and a political settlement to the conflict.

The Taliban indicated no interest in sitting down with the Afghan government, which it referred to as the 鈥�Kabul administration.鈥� It also suggested it believes it has the upper hand, particularly after recent events 鈥� including the village massacre and widespread outrage over the burning of Qurans by US soldiers.

The statement says the Taliban 鈥渉as enduring patience and long-term jihadi strategies against the malicious plots of the enemy and enjoys the ceaseless support of its believing nation.鈥�

While it is true that Afghans would prefer to see foreign soldiers leaving their country, Mr. Boot of CFR says, it is also just as true that they 鈥渨ant the foreign support to prevent a Taliban takeover.鈥�

But others say that, despite recent setbacks and Thursday鈥檚 Taliban walkout, a negotiated settlement remains the only viable solution for ending the war.

鈥淚f we鈥檙e going to get an acceptable outcome, it鈥檚 going to be as a result of settlements talks,鈥� says Stephen Biddle, a defense policy specialist at CFR.

The option of handing off to a capable Afghan military an 鈥渙ngoing war鈥� was based on a 鈥渧ery weakened Taliban,鈥� he says, and that鈥檚 now 鈥渄ead in the water.鈥�

But this doesn鈥檛 mean the Taliban is jettisoning the talks for good with the idea it can now achieve a victory, Mr. Biddle says. The approaching spring and summer fighting season will influence the Taliban鈥檚 political moves, but at the same time the argument that the Taliban will only negotiate if it believes the US and NATO are about to win the war 鈥渋s overstated,鈥� he adds.

Instead, Biddle says he believes the Taliban will look ahead to dim prospects for overthrowing the Afghan government, along with greater chances of a 鈥済rinding civil war鈥� stretching over the rest of the decade. He says it will ask, 鈥淚s there nothing the West could offer us that looks better than that?鈥�

That means, he says, that while a negotiated settlement remains 鈥渇ar from certain,鈥� it is also 鈥渘ot zero either.鈥�