海角大神

The death of Kim Jong-il has disrupted an American plan to encourage North Korea to curb its nuclear arsenal, and the uncertainties surrounding the 鈥渄ear leader鈥檚鈥� replacement mean US officials have聽little choice for now but to sit tight.

Before the announcement of Mr. Kim's death Sunday, the US was on the verge of completing a deal to exchange humanitarian assistance for North Korean steps toward denuclearization.

But as聽Kim's replacement and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, tries to establish himself in his father鈥檚 place,聽it will likely be months 鈥� and potentially tense and surprise-laden months 鈥� before the North Korean leadership will be ready to reengage diplomatically, many North Asian analysts say.

鈥淲e may be able to get back to talks, perhaps in months, but with Kim Jong-un looking to establish himself, we also have to realize that this may not be his highest priority,鈥� says Bruce Klingner, a northeast Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Last week, US officials were negotiating with North Korean officials over a plan that tentatively called for the US to send a substantial amount of food assistance to North Korea in monthly shipments of 20,000 tons. In return, Pyongyang would have agreed to suspend its uranium-enrichment program, reopen its Yongbyon nuclear facility to international nuclear inspectors, and suspend any further nuclear or missile tests.

The accord would have reportedly opened the door to resumption of negotiations on North Korea鈥檚 denuclearization that collapsed in 2008. The six-party talks include聽the two Koreas, the US, China, Russia, and Japan.听

But several key issues, including the facility inspections and just how intrusive they would be, had still not been finalized when word came of Kim鈥檚 death, State Department officials say. 鈥淚t is a monitoring issue, among other things,鈥� said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland Tuesday, responding to questions about what had not been resolved in last week鈥檚 talks.

Even before Kim鈥檚 death, however, some analysts were skeptical that North Korea鈥檚 powerful military would have accepted the demands the US was making. The assumption now is that the 20-something Kim Jong-un will need some time to establish his credibility with the military, making an accord considerably less likely, especially any time soon, these analysts add.

There has been some speculation that North Korea could transition to a 鈥渃ollective leadership鈥� in the place of one ruling Kim, but that might not help US interests, says Mr. Klingner of Heritage. 鈥淭he hardest of the hardliners in such a leadership might be unwilling to move quickly ahead with the US,鈥� he says.听

With China wielding considerable influence over North Korea, the US will have to remain in close contact with Beijing during Kim Jong-un's succession. Some diplomatic experts like John Bolton, former US ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush, say Kim鈥檚 passing and the rise in his place of a young, untried son, could present an opportunity for the US to encourage China to see the benefits of a reunified Korea.

But other analysts caution that China, valuing stability in its neighborhood above all else, is unlikely to look favorably on the prospect of losing a Communist ally that has fallen increasingly under its influence in recent years. 鈥淐hina 鈥� would prefer to keep North Korea as a buffer state between it and the thousands of US-allied troops sitting on the demilitarized zone,鈥� writes Amy Stoddard, an Asia specialist with the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.

To be sure, Kim Jong-un will need to demonstrate a degree of independence from Beijing to suit his country鈥檚 nationalist streak, but both the US and South Korea must be alert to the fact that Beijing's interests regarding the Korean peninsula are not identical with their own.

The two 鈥渕ust make sure not to give Beijing carte blanche in defining the future of the peninsula,鈥� says Ms. Stoddard

Indeed, finding substantial common ground with China on North Korea may not be easy, especially given China鈥檚 growing reluctance to even criticize (let alone punish) Pyongyang鈥檚 belligerence towards South Korea, says Klingner.

鈥淭here has been some overlap [in American and Chinese interests],鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut the truth is that in recent years China has tended to be more a part of the problem than a part of the solution.鈥� 聽