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The US counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan has long relied heavily on covert operations in neighboring Pakistan: US intelligence agents and Special Forces units working to find out which extremist groups were planning what actions, and American drones attacking the safe havens in northwest Pakistan from which the Taliban launch cross-border operations.

That strategy has been thrown for a loop by Pakistan鈥檚 latest demands: that the CIA drastically reduce its numbers in the country and that the intensely unpopular drone strikes be reduced and henceforth only launched by a binational decision-making process.

Pakistan has made similar demands before, and this time around it may be using what it sees as an opportune moment to try to gain more influence over US operations 鈥� perhaps to nip what it sees as an increasingly 鈥済o-it-alone鈥� US counterterrorist approach within Pakistani borders.

But some regional experts say that, whatever its aims may be, Pakistan is now pushing the never-easy relationship with the US harder than ever before.

鈥淎bove all, what they鈥檙e annoyed about and motivated by is the sense that they don鈥檛 know what鈥檚 going on in their own country,鈥� says Marvin Weinbaum, a former Pakistan specialist at the State Department鈥檚 Bureau of Intelligence and Research. 鈥淚f they鈥檝e decided to play harder ball now, it鈥檚 because they feel they have some leverage to change a situation they don鈥檛 like.鈥�

That 鈥渓everage鈥� comes as a result of the case of Raymond Davis, the CIA security contractor who caused a national uproar in Pakistan in January when he killed two men he said were following him in Lahore 鈥� and who turned out to be Pakistani intelligence agents. Mr. Davis was arrested on murder charges and was only released after the US applied intense pressure.

鈥淭he Pakistanis took the heat [from the Pakistani public] for letting Davis go, and in effect they鈥檙e now out for something in return,鈥� says Dr. Weinbaum, now a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington.

Pakistan is not demanding the CIA鈥檚 complete departure from its territory, although it is calling for all US intelligence contractors to leave the country. Nor is Pakistan demanding an end to all drone strikes.

Still, the demands concerning US personnel alone 鈥� estimated by Pakistan experts to involve more than a third of American counterterrorist operatives in the country 鈥� could be enough to put US strategy in Afghanistan in something of a bind, regional analysts say.

鈥淭he Americans and Pakistanis have all along been working at cross purposes on Afghanistan, the two have very different end states of what they want to see in Afghanistan,鈥� says Malou Innocent, a foreign policy analyst who focuses on Afghanistan and Pakistan at the Cato Institute in Washington. 鈥淭he reality is that the US is eradicating the very Taliban militants [in the country鈥檚 northwest] that Pakistan is using for its own objectives.鈥�

More 'melodramatic episodes'

Despite the sudden surge in what Ms. Innocent calls 鈥渆pisodic tensions,鈥� no one foresees anything like a rupture between the two countries.

鈥淏oth countries will continue to need and rely on the other, but the underlying tensions mean we鈥檙e still going to have these melodramatic episodes,鈥� says Innocent. She notes that Pakistan similarly annoyed US officials just last fall, when it closed NATO supply routes into Afghanistan over the killing of Pakistani soldiers by NATO airstrikes.

MEI鈥檚 Weinbaum says that the kinds of demands the Pakistanis are making of the US 鈥� and perhaps more important, what they left out 鈥� suggest they know that with the Pakistani economy afflicted by a burgeoning population and high unemployment, their options for pressuring the United States are limited.

鈥淭heir ace in the hole remains the [NATO] transit routes, but that鈥檚 the one thing they held back on,鈥� Weinbaum says. 鈥淭hey may feel they鈥檙e in a bargaining position, but they also know they need the US and Western assistance.鈥�

Calling the current row 鈥渢he most severe juncture I鈥檝e seen in our relations,鈥� Weinbaum says the low point 鈥渃omes at a bad time鈥� because it falls just as Congress is showing an inclination to cut foreign assistance. The US is in the midst of a five-year, $7.5 billion program to boost Pakistan鈥檚 development and education levels.

'Not headed for a divorce'

Weinbaum agrees that the overriding interests of both countries mean 鈥渨e鈥檙e not headed for a divorce here.鈥� The US may make some concessions, he adds, but in the end it will maintain certain red lines.

Take the drones. Weinbaum says a lot of their missions have been joint intelligence operations, and that may increase 鈥� especially with elements of the Pakistani intelligence, the ISI, that have been helpful to the US. But he says the US will have to weigh the Pakistani desire 鈥渢o know much more about what鈥檚 going on鈥� against the concerns over letting key intelligence fall into unfriendly Pakistani hands.

鈥淚n many instances we have good reason not share what we find. Things leak out 鈥� to an ISI that isn鈥檛 all on our aside,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd suddenly an operation isn鈥檛 as successful as it might have been.鈥�