海角大神

How do you say 鈥�shellacking鈥� in Chinese? Or German? Or Korean?

Fresh from his self-described shellacking in this month鈥檚 midterm elections, President Obama has gotten pretty much the same treatment from foreign leaders as he has made his way through Asia this week.

Leaders at the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Seoul, South Korea 鈥� China and Germany topping the list 鈥� made it clear that they feel freer than ever to stand up to the United States on global economic issues. And South Korea refused to bow to Obama administration demands for reworking a US-Korea free-trade agreement dating from the Bush administration, putting off conclusion of the trade pact until at least next year.

Mr. Obama鈥檚 drubbing at the polls Nov. 2 is no doubt one factor in these countries鈥� willingness to stand up to a US president who remains popular in many of their countries.

鈥淚t would be na茂ve to say [the election results] don鈥檛 have an impact, because it does hurt him,鈥� says I.M. Destler, who specializes in international security and economic policy at the University of Maryland鈥檚 School of Public Policy. 鈥淚鈥檓 just not certain that if the election had been much more positive for Obama, he would have done much better鈥� in winning global support for his economic views.

Another, bigger explanation for the global defiance can be found in the state of the US economy relative to that of some of the US鈥檚 largest trading partners, global economic analysts say. China this year rocketed to the No. 2 slot of world economies (behind the US), while Germany鈥檚 unemployment rate is already several notches below the US鈥檚 9.6 percent as German exports have boomed 鈥� despite slow overall German economic growth.

But perhaps nothing played a bigger role in lining up international opposition to Obama than the Federal Reserve鈥檚 action last week 鈥� pumping $600 billion in new money into the economy. The world saw that move as devaluing the dollar to make American products cheaper, rather than as an effort to stimulate US economic growth.

鈥淩emember that before the G20, there was much more pressure on China than on the US in terms of this question of global imbalances鈥� of deficits and surpluses, says Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in New York. 鈥淏ut given the timing of the Fed鈥檚 actions,鈥� just days before the summit, 鈥渋t makes it look as if the US is behaving no differently,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd China exploited that to the maximum.鈥�

One result of the announced US plans? is that China and Germany suddenly found themselves on the same page in their opposition to global measures (as advocated by Obama) to address trade imbalances. 鈥淲hen the Chinese and the Germans find each other, you get a powerful coalescing of interests, and it emboldens them,鈥� says Mr. Destler.

This rejection of the US vision of the way forward for the world economy is not new and certainly does not date from Nov. 2, some experts point out. But it is nevertheless easier for world leaders to tell Obama they do not agree with him when they believe the American people have just done the same.

Another explanation is that countries that early on in the global economic crisis rejected or mostly resisted Obama鈥檚 call for hefty stimulus spending to get the economy moving again believe that time has proven them right. German Chancellor Angela Merkel could rebuff Obama鈥檚 call for trade rebalancing measures in Seoul smug in the assurance that her nein to Obama鈥檚 stimulus prescription last year paid off 鈥� at least for Germany.

鈥淪ome of what we鈥檙e seeing, particularly in the case of Germany, is this feeling that 鈥榃e were right,鈥� 鈥� says University of Maryland鈥檚 Destler.

The G20鈥檚 final communiqu茅 makes a bland reference to watching out for imbalances in trade accounts, but includes no triggers or mention of measures to be taken. And with countries watching out for their own bottom lines in a weak and uncertain global economy, coordinated economic action is not likely to flourish any time soon, international economists say.

鈥淧rospects for common action are very tough at the moment and are unlikely to improve very soon,鈥� says the CFR鈥檚 Mr. Steil. It will take a stabilizing of the value of the dollar 鈥� which remains the world鈥檚 major reserve currency 鈥� and a strengthening of the US economy for that to happen, he says.

It may also take a US president in a position of strength 鈥� which is not where Obama finds himself at the moment. 鈥淗e looks very weak on the international stage,鈥� says Steil. 鈥淵ou combine that with the US economy performing as weakly as it is, and it emboldens others to act in ways they might not have otherwise.鈥�