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The Obama White House has been fretting for weeks over how best to portray the official conclusion of the US combat presence in Iraq at the end of this month. If the speech by Vice President Joe Biden before a veterans organization Monday is an indication, it will be upbeat, muscular, and just shy of 鈥渕ission accomplished.鈥�

Telling the annual convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) in Indianapolis that 鈥減olitics, not war, has broken out in Iraq,鈥� Mr. Biden listed points that he said constitute success in the country the United States invaded in March 2003: Violence is way down, more than 650,000 Iraqi security forces are 鈥渓eading the way to defend and protect their country,鈥� Iraqi politicians are solving their deep and complex divisions through negotiations, and Al Qaeda in Iraq, though it 鈥渟till remains dangerous,鈥� has 鈥渇ailed鈥� in its objective of destabilizing the country politically.

Also noting that a sizable American civilian presence will take over the lead of the US effort in Iraq, the vice president said, 鈥淒rawing down our troops in Iraq does not mean we are disengaging from Iraq. In fact, quite the opposite is true.鈥�

President Obama is now expected to deliver a televised address on Iraq sometime after his planned Aug. 29 return to Washington from vacation in Martha鈥檚 Vineyard. The tone is unlikely to wander far from that set by Biden on Monday, although several factors 鈥� most significant, the continuing inability of the Iraqi political class to negotiate a new government more than five months after national elections 鈥� will dampen any urge to crow too much.

As much as he might like to, Mr. Obama is not likely to echo the triumphal tone that comedian Stephen Colbert will take when he airs two nights of 鈥�The Colbert Report鈥� in early September focused on the troops returning from Iraq. The two episodes on Sept. 8 and 9 are to be titled 鈥淏een There: Won That.鈥�

Yet some Iraq experts already see hints of a 鈥渨ar won!鈥� approach from Obama that they say would be every bit as 鈥渋rresponsible鈥� as President Bush鈥檚 declaration of 鈥渕ission accomplished鈥� in May 2003.

鈥淭he Iraq War is not over and it is not 鈥榳on,鈥� 鈥� wrote Anthony Cordesman, an expert in US military affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a commentary on Obama鈥檚 Aug. 18 statement that marked the departure of the last US combat brigade from Iraq. 鈥淚n fact,鈥� he continued, 鈥渋t is at as critical a stage as at any time since 2003.鈥�

Saying that 鈥渆verything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government,鈥� Mr. Cordesman added that a state capable of bringing security and stability to the 鈥渁verage Iraqi鈥� is five to 10 years away. He seemed to advise Obama to stifle any urge to declare victory.

Biden, who was appointed by the president to oversee the implementation of his Iraq policy, told the VFW on Monday that he has personally pressed upon Iraq鈥檚 leaders the need to 鈥渕atch the courage of their citizens [who voted in March] by completing this process鈥� of forming a government.

But he added, 鈥淚 am absolutely confident that Iraq will form a national unity government that will be able to sustain the country.鈥�

The White House had obviously not expected the Iraqis to take more than five months to form their government, other experts note. But, they say, the delay may serve as a cautionary experience as the administration plans for what it says will be the withdrawal of the remaining 50,000 US troops by the end of 2011.

Saying Iraq could still slip back into civil war, Ken Pollack, an Iraq expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says, 鈥淭he problem is [as the Iraqis negotiate their political divisions] we鈥檙e the referee, we鈥檙e the only referee, and we鈥檙e stepping back right now.鈥�