Iran nuclear fuel swap: why US, others are no longer so keen on it
| Washington
Iran on Monday surprised much of the world by agreeing to a nuclear fuel swap with Turkey and Brazil. The deal is similar to one that the US has been pressing Tehran to accept for months 鈥� so Washington will be happy with this development, right?
That鈥檚 unlikely. From the US point of view, one big problem is that Iran continues to amass more and more low-enriched uranium, and it has begun boosting some of this stockpile to an enrichment level it hasn鈥檛 approached before. Thus, an Iran nuclear fuel swap today might constrain the country's nuclear program much less than it would have last October.
鈥淭here is less to Iran鈥檚 agreement than meets the eye,鈥� writes Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy & Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, on his .
Under Monday鈥檚 deal, Iran would ship 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey for safekeeping. In return, it would receive ready-made fuel rods, enriched to a level of 20 percent and capable of powering the Tehran Research Reactor, which Iran says is a crucial source of medical isotopes.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the deal means Iran has opted for a constructive approach.
鈥淭here is no ground left for more sanctions or pressure,鈥� he told reporters in Iran, according to Turkey鈥檚 private NTV television.
But the deal has been greeted skeptically by Britain and other European nations, as well as the US, which see it as merely an attempt to delay imposition of further United Nations Security Council sanctions.
鈥淕iven Iran鈥檚 repeated failure to live up to its own commitments, and the need to address fundamental issues related to Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, the United States and international community continue to have serious concerns,鈥� said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs in a written statement issued Monday.
The US and its allies pushed Iran last October to agree to a similar deal. Its purpose then, said officials at the time, was to constrain Iran鈥檚 weapons-breakout capability. Last fall, if Iran had shipped 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium out of the country, it would not have been left with enough material to fuel a crash high-enrichment program, if it wanted to race to build a nuclear bomb.
In October, Iran鈥檚 total LEU stockpile was about 1,500 kilograms, notes an of Monday鈥檚 announced deal. But Iran鈥檚 enrichment centrifuge arrays have continued to run, and now the stockpile is closer to 2,300 kilograms, says ISIS.
鈥淣ow, the removal of 1,200 kilograms leaves Iran with a LEU stock that is, or will be so within a few months, large enough to provide a breakout capability,鈥� the ISIS analysis says.
In addition, Iran has also begun its own effort to produce 20 percent enriched uranium at its Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. It has announced plans to deploy more advanced centrifuges and to build more centrifuge plants.
It would not be a bad thing for Iran to ship much of its low-enriched uranium to another country, judges the ISIS. But the context in which such a fuel swap would take place is very different today than it was only a few months ago. Thus, Monday鈥檚 announcement 鈥減rovides no reason to stop negotiating in the Security Council the imposition of sanctions on Iran,鈥� the analysis says.
鈥� Associated Press material was used in this report.
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