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As the clock winds down in Election 2012, each campaign is fighting for an elusive but essential ingredient in a close race: the Big Mo. 聽

Part of Republican Mitt Romney鈥檚 strategy seems to be using the word 鈥渕omentum鈥� as much as possible in campaign emails. One fundraising email from Mr. Romney reached this reporter鈥檚 inbox five times on Friday. Subject line: 鈥淭he momentum.鈥�

聽鈥淭he debates have supercharged our campaign and the Republican team,鈥� the email says. 鈥淲e're seeing more and more enthusiasm 鈥� and more and more support.鈥�

Certainly, Romney鈥檚 energetic performance against a lackluster President Obama in the first debate, Oct. 3, galvanized the former Massachusetts governor鈥檚 supporters. The crowds at Romney rallies now number in the thousands, up from the hundreds. In fundraising for the first half of October, Team Romney beat Team Obama $111.8 million to $88.8 million.

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But Romney hasn鈥檛 been able to take that mini-surge in polls after the first debate and build it into a clear lead over Obama, perhaps because the president came back to life in the last two debates.

鈥淲hile Romney gained significantly in the wake of the first presidential debate in early October, the lack of a continuing trend over the past two weeks helps counter a theme in some campaign coverage that Romney's support continues to 鈥榮urge鈥� nationwide,鈥� writes Mark Blumenthal, senior polling editor at the Huffington Post.

Currently, according to RealClearPolitics.com, Romney leads Obama in the average of national polls by 0.9 percentage points 鈥� within the margin of error. But Obama is ahead (slightly) in enough battleground states to maintain a lead in the Electoral College, 290 to 248 (with 270 required for victory).

In short, the whole race is too close to call. And in the ABC News/Washington Post poll released Friday, 鈥渟ome underlying shifts toward Romney paused,鈥� writes Gary Langer, pollster for ABC.

In his analysis, Mr. Langer reports 鈥渘o further gain for Romney on key economic measures鈥� in the poll. 鈥淎nd strong enthusiasm among his supporters, which rose sharply after the first debate, has been essentially stable since 鈥� neither losing nor gaining more ground, and even with Obama, but not ahead.鈥�

Even on the matter of campaign contact with voters 鈥� a critical feature of each team鈥檚 鈥済et out the vote鈥� drive 鈥� it鈥檚 a dead heat.

鈥淲hile 22 percent of likely voters personally have been contacted by Obama鈥檚 campaign, as many, 23 percent, have been contacted by Romney鈥檚 side,鈥� Langer writes. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 tightened from a five-point Obama advantage in contacts in mid-October; Obama similarly had a five-point advantage over John McCain in contacts at about this point in 2008.鈥�

But in another critical measure of how the campaigns are doing 鈥� early voting 鈥� Obama has a lead, at least in certain key swing states. The latest Time magazine poll out of Ohio, released Oct. 24, shows that among people who say they have already voted, Obama is beating Romney 60 percent to 30 percent.

The Obama campaign estimates that 40 percent of the vote nationally will be cast before Nov. 6, compared with about 30 percent four years ago. Polls show Romney beating Obama among people who plan to vote on Election Day.

For more than a week, political analysts have been flagging the possibility that one candidate could win the popular vote, with the other winning the Electoral College, and thus the election, which happened in 2000. The 2012 version would put Romney in the position of Al Gore and Obama as George W. Bush, though, it is widely hoped, without any legal disputes.聽聽

A look at the shows just how steep the challenge is for Romney. For example, even if Romney were to win all the states Senator McCain won in 2008, plus Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado, Obama would still win in the Electoral College, 271 to 267.

鈥淧artisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed,鈥� nonpartisan analyst Charlie Cook wrote in NationalJournal.com on Oct. 18. 鈥淭he race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end.鈥�

So far, Mr. Cook鈥檚 prediction is holding true.

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