海角大神

Mitt Romney won the Illinois primary handily 鈥� both in the popular vote and in the delegate count 鈥� solidifying his status as the prohibitive favorite for the Republican presidential nomination.

Mr. Romney鈥檚 superior organization and financial firepower, and a growing reputation as the most electable Republican in the field, sealed the deal in Illinois, a state whose GOP voter profile played to Romney鈥檚 strengths. Sixty percent of Tuesday鈥檚 voters said Romney was the most likely candidate to beat President Obama in November, higher than the average of exit polls in earlier contests.

鈥淎n improved sense that he understands voters鈥� problems boosted Mitt Romney to victory in the Illinois primary, as did a less religiously focused, less strongly conservative electorate than he鈥檚 faced in other contests, especially to the south,鈥� writes Gary Langer, pollster for ABC News, in an analysis of the Illinois exit poll. 鈥淏ut a shortfall among less well-heeled Republicans marks his continued challenges.鈥�

With 99 percent of the vote counted early Wednesday, Mr. Romney took 46.7 percent, Rick Santorum had 35 percent, Ron Paul had 9.3 percent, and Newt Gingrich had 8 percent. Nobody dropped out of the race, but Romney supporters hoped his double-digit victory in a big state would quiet talk of a contested GOP convention in August.

Romney won at least 43 of the 54 Illinois delegates up for grabs Tuesday, and Mr. Santorum won at least 10, according to the Associated Press. In the overall AP delegate count, Romney leads with 563 out of the 1,144 required to secure the nomination. Santorum has 263, Mr. Gingrich has 135, and Congressman Paul has 50.

The next contest, Saturday鈥檚 primary in Louisiana, plays more to Santorum鈥檚 advantage. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls there shows Santorum leading by 8.5 percentage points. But in April, the playing field tilts again toward Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, with seven contests in Northern states. Two big tests loom for Santorum: the April 3 primary in Wisconsin, where the two recent polls show Santorum strong, and the April 24 primary in Pennsylvania, which Santorum represented first in the House and then the Senate for total of 16 years, until 2007.

If Santorum fails to do well in Wisconsin 鈥� either winning outright or coming close, as he did in Michigan and Ohio 鈥� and then fails to win Pennsylvania, calls for him to exit the race are likely to escalate. Establishment Republicans, who tend to favor Romney, have been treading gingerly on the Santorum question, as they do not want to alienate conservative and evangelical Republicans. Turnout among that key demographic in November will be crucial for the party鈥檚 nominee.

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Romney spoke as the likely nominee, training his sights on Mr. Obama.

鈥淚t鈥檚 time to say this word: enough. We鈥檝e had enough,鈥� Romney said, speaking of Obama鈥檚 stewardship of the economy.

But his message could just as easily have applied to his Republican primary competitors 鈥� both Santorum and Gingrich, the former House speaker 鈥� who are increasingly seen as spoilers rather than as serious competitors for the nomination. Given the delegate math, their only scenario for victory involves depriving Romney of a majority of delegates before the convention in Tampa, Fla., forcing a contest there.

The history of modern contested conventions has not been kind to either party. Romney himself has said that if the nomination race goes all the way to Tampa, the effort to replace Obama will be doomed. Obama faces no challenge for the Democratic nomination, allowing him and his campaign to raise money and focus solely on the GOP while the Republicans continue to attack one another. Gingrich鈥檚 only statement to voters Tuesday night was a communiqu茅 that did not congratulate Romney, instead going negative on his money advantage in the primaries.

鈥淭o defeat Barack Obama, Republicans can鈥檛 nominate a candidate who relies on outspending his opponents 7-1,鈥� Gingrich said. 鈥淚nstead, we need a nominee who offers powerful solutions that hold the president accountable for his failures.鈥�

If Gingrich fails to do well in Louisiana, any path forward for his candidacy will have vanished, if it hasn鈥檛 already. His only two primary victories have been in South Carolina and Georgia.

Santorum signaled his commitment to Pennsylvania by delivering his remarks Tuesday night in Gettysburg 鈥� the setting of Illinois native son President Lincoln鈥檚 most famous address. In his remarks, Santorum emphasized his family鈥檚 immigrant, working-class roots in Pennsylvania.