海角大神

When the Republican National Committee took steps to prolong the party鈥檚 presidential nomination race, party leaders hoped that more states than the usual handful would play a role in selecting the nominee. That worked.

More states involved means more voters engaged, more volunteers identified, more organization built. Certainly, that model helped Barack Obama organize his general election campaign and win the presidency, they reasoned.

What the Republicans weren鈥檛 counting on was how nasty their race would turn, driving down the public鈥檚 view of their top candidates.

The latest Pew Research Center poll shows Republican front-runner Mitt Romney at just 29 percent favorability among all adult Americans and Rick Santorum, his top challenger, at 27 percent. At this point four years ago, when Mr. Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton were duking it out for the Democratic nomination, Obama鈥檚 favorability was 56 percent, Mrs. Clinton was at 50 percent, and presumptive GOP nominee John McCain was at 45 percent.

Today, even among Republicans, Mr. Romney is viewed favorably by only 58 percent and Mr. Santorum by only 53 percent. In March 2008, both Obama and Clinton scored in the 70s among Democrats.

鈥�The Democrats weren鈥檛 negative about the range of choices that they had, and that鈥檚 an important difference,鈥� says Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, at a Monitor breakfast Wednesday.

In February 2008 鈥� after the Super Tuesday contests, and therefore a roughly equivalent moment in the current GOP race 鈥� Pew found that 80 percent of Democrats viewed their presidential field as either 鈥渆xcellent鈥� or 鈥済ood.鈥� Most Clinton supporters had a favorable view of Obama and vice versa.

鈥淵ou didn鈥檛 see the level of dissatisfaction that you see among the Republicans [today], where just slightly under half are saying they have good candidates this year overall,鈥� says Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center. 鈥淲hen you look at how the Santorum backers feel about Romney and vice versa, there鈥檚 a real lack of enthusiasm and a lack of commitment there.鈥澛�

Aside from the attacks Republicans are lobbing at each other, there鈥檚 another aspect of the 2012 race that could be making it more difficult for the party to reach consensus on a nominee: the emergence of a significant bloc in the Republican base that is 鈥渕uch more ideological than any group we鈥檝e ever identified, right or left,鈥� Mr. Kohut says.

His data come from the Pew center鈥檚 May 2011 鈥減olitical typology鈥� report, a major survey that classifies voters within party groups. Some 11 percent of registered voters are 鈥渟taunch conservatives,鈥� many of them highly engaged tea party supporters. These voters are very conservative across the board on the size and role of government, on economics, foreign policy, and social issues.

鈥淭hat has a lot to do with the rancorous nature of this campaign,鈥� Kohut says.

Some leading Republicans have warned that the prolonged primary process 鈥� which awards delegates proportionally early in the season, as opposed to winner-take-all 鈥� is a bad idea, because it鈥檚 keeping the party focused on its internal differences, rather than on defeating Obama. It has sparked fairly intense speculation that the nomination battle will be resolved at a brokered or contested convention. Some GOP activists worry that the party brand has suffered long-term damage.

But architects of the system disagree. As long as the trailing candidates drop out of the race before the Republican National Convention in late August, the presumptive nominee will have plenty of time to regroup and build a strong campaign against Obama, says Saul Anuzis, Republican national committeeman from Michigan and a designer of the new primary rules. 聽

鈥淩omney is earning this one state at a time, and that鈥檚 the way it ought to be,鈥� says Mr. Anuzis, who backs Romney. 鈥淭he point was to create an open process and encourage rational thought.鈥�

After a hard-fought nomination race, the goal of the convention is to unite the party and excite the base, Anuzis says. But, he adds, 鈥渢he question is, how long will our hangover be from this binge that we鈥檙e on.鈥� 聽聽聽