Ohio looms large on Super Tuesday. Can Romney increase his delegate lead?
Among the 10 states holding presidential primary elections or caucuses this coming 鈥淪uper Tuesday,鈥� Ohio may be the biggest enchilada. It鈥檚 a genuine swing state, and the economy 鈥� Mitt Romney鈥檚 claimed area of presidential expertise 鈥� has been hit hard there.
Having won Michigan and Arizona this week, Romney reclaims front-runnerhood. Bagging Ohio could revive his 鈥渋nevitable鈥� status, some Republican insiders are saying.
鈥淚f he does [win Ohio], it鈥檚 over,鈥� GOP strategist Ed Rollins told the Washington Post. 鈥淎ll that鈥檚 left is convention speeches and the balloon drop.鈥�
Well, maybe.
Newt Gingrich is going for broke in Georgia (which actually awards ten more delegates than Ohio), the state he represented in Congress. Rick Santorum looks very strong in Oklahoma and Tennessee.
If Santorum wins those two states, and if he squeaks a win in Ohio, the day definitely will be his and Romney鈥檚 status will revert to shaky.
It well could happen. On Monday, the independent Quinnipiac University poll had Santorum ahead of Romney in Ohio 36-29 percent among likely Republican voters. Another Ohio poll out the same day, this one conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, had Santorum ahead by 11 points (37-26).
By Friday, Santorum鈥檚 lead had shrunk to 35-31(within the margin of polling error), according to Quinnipiac, leaving the race for votes there virtually tied.
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato鈥檚 online gives it to Romney 鈥渜uite narrowly.鈥�
搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听How much do you know about Mitt Romney? A quiz.
But Romney has problems there, maybe big problems. The auto industry is a big part of Ohio鈥檚 industrial economy, much of it unionized. As everybody knows, Romney opposed the government bailout of the auto industry, and he also backed Ohio Gov. John Kasich鈥� s effort to restrict public unions鈥� collective-bargaining rights 鈥� which failed by a large margin as a ballot measure.
Santorum may have a point of entry here to the extent that he successfully presents himself to mid- and lower-income Ohio primary voters as a 鈥渂lue collar Republican."
But it鈥檚 worth noting that both Romney and Santorum have seen their 鈥渦nfavorable鈥� rating rise in Ohio in recent weeks, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.
And for Romney especially, the bloom seems to be going off his rose among some prominent conservative commentators.
Though he won Michigan and Arizona, writes New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, 鈥淗e lost his general election narrative.鈥�
Speaking of Romney鈥檚 recent tax reform speech, writes Douthat, 鈥淭he Romney campaign has declined to explain exactly how the cuts will be paid for, offering vague promises of loophole closing and spending cuts that suggest a聽return to supply-side irresponsibility.鈥�
鈥淚f left unrevised and unaddressed, this irresponsibility threatens to demolish the pillars of Romney鈥檚 general-election argument,鈥� he warns. 鈥淏etween his verbal miscues and his clumsy attempts to defend his right flank on policy, the likely Republican nominee is suddenly headed for the kind of political and ideological cul-de-sac that losing presidential candidates often end up occupying.鈥�
Syndicated columnist George Will goes even farther, suggesting that Republicans might as well concentrate on taking over the US Senate and building their majority in the House of Representatives rather than trying to oust the incumbent President.
Neither Santorum nor Romney 鈥渟eems likely to be elected,鈥� Will writes in a column to be published Sunday and seen in advance by Politico鈥檚 Mike Allen.
鈥淔谤辞尘 Louisiana's Gov. Bobby Jindal to Wisconsin's Rep. Paul Ryan, Republicans have a rising generation of potential 2016 candidates,鈥� he writes. 鈥淸T]he presidency is not everything, and there will be another election in the next year divisible by four.鈥�
Perhaps by then, the toxic atmospherics around the Republican nomination race 鈥� decried recently by Sen. John McCain and former GOP governors Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, and Mike Huckabee 鈥� will have improved, and the scene won鈥檛 make Sen. McCain feel like he鈥檚 鈥渨atching a Greek tragedy," as he said this week.
搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听How much do you know about Mitt Romney? A quiz.
