海角大神

Rep. Ron Paul knows how to pack them in.

At a town hall in Meredith, N.H., Sunday afternoon, the libertarian-oriented phenomenon from Texas doesn鈥檛 need to raise his voice or rhetorically shape-shift to keep several hundred voters hanging on every word.

He delivers the tried-and-true, small-government Paul message: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are bankrupting the country with bailouts. It鈥檚 time, he says, to stop wasting money on 鈥渦nwinnable, undeclared wars.鈥� It鈥檚 also time to eliminate many government agencies.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not the government鈥檚 job to educate you, it鈥檚 your parents鈥� job,鈥� Congressman Paul tells a girl who asked about his plan to get rid of the Department of Education.

The latest round of polling ahead of Tuesday鈥檚 Republican primary in New Hampshire shows Paul at about 20 percent, solidly in second place, though well behind front-runner Mitt Romney. But in a crowded field, 20 percent is a meaningful chunk 鈥� especially if there鈥檚 any possibility that Paul might take his loyal following and run as a third-party candidate. After all, in 1988 he was the Libertarian Party nominee for president (between stints as a Republican member of Congress).

Today, Paul is running well ahead of where he was four years ago, when he ran for president as a Republican. Then, he took 8 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary.

The third-party threat

In recent media interviews, Paul has been asked if he would consider an independent run. He always says he has no intention of doing so, but doesn鈥檛 completely rule it out.

鈥淚鈥檓 not an absolutist,鈥� Paul said Sunday on 鈥�Fox News Sunday.鈥� Then he puts his thumb on the scale toward not running: 鈥淓veryone knows I have no intention of doing that. It would be a bit of a burden.鈥�

Indeed, at a 海角大神 Science Monitor breakfast last September, he explained that he wouldn鈥檛 go third party, because he doesn鈥檛 have the personal wealth required to mount a credible candidacy (see fellow Texan Ross Perot, who ran in both the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns). And he would be excluded from debates.

But Paul added that given the 鈥渃haos in the economic system,鈥� he wouldn鈥檛 be surprised to see someone jump in.

A subsidiary GOP concern centers on what all the Paul supporters do if their man does not win the nomination and stays on the sidelines. Will they just sit this one out? Or will they jump to an already-declared third-party candidate, such as former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who recently quit the Republican Party to run for the Libertarian nomination?

Paulites speak

At the town hall in Meredith, many Paul supporters weren鈥檛 sure what they would do if Paul is not the nominee 鈥� but several volunteered that they knew they would not vote for Mr. Romney.

鈥淩omney just seems kind of shady, with his big business background,鈥� says David Farrell, a 20-year-old from Meredith who enters the Navy next month.

Annalee, a technology worker from Merrimack who declined to reveal her last name, said she鈥檚 solidly behind Paul in the GOP primary, but if he doesn鈥檛 win the nomination, she鈥檒l vote for Obama.

鈥淚 like Paul鈥檚 emphasis on individual liberties, but I鈥檓 concerned about his plan to do away with regulations,鈥� she says.

Aaron Bennett, a restaurant owner from Laconia, says if Paul doesn鈥檛 get the nomination, he might just write him in on the ballot in November. And if Paul runs as an independent, he adds, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 care if that takes votes away from the Republicans.鈥�

Most 'will come around'

Jennifer Duffy, a neutral analyst for the Cook Political Report also watching the Paul event in Meredith, says some Paul supporters鈥� insistence that they won鈥檛 vote for the Republican nominee if it鈥檚 not Paul is typical of partisan sentiment in the heat of the primaries.

鈥淢ost of them will come around鈥� and vote Republican, Ms. Duffy says.

In New Hampshire, she mentions the open race for governor 鈥� Gov. John Lynch (D) is retiring 鈥揳nd that even if the presidential race doesn鈥檛 excite some voters here, the governor鈥檚 race might. Voters in other states may find it鈥檚 the down-ballot races that bring them to the polls. And don鈥檛 discount the 鈥渁nybody but Obama鈥� feeling most Republicans share, she says.

But what if Paul does jump the GOP ship and launch a third-party candidacy? 鈥淣ow that,鈥� Duffy says, 鈥渨ould be a big problem for the Republicans.鈥�