Gary Johnson to bolt GOP for Libertarians. Will his candidacy matter?
With Republican voters barely noticing Gary Johnson鈥檚 run for presidency, the former New Mexico governor is now pinning his hopes on a bid for the Libertarian nomination.
He鈥檚 expected to announce the switch officially on Dec. 28, Politico first reported Tuesday night.
But it鈥檚 been a subject of speculation for weeks, especially since Mr. Johnson mentioned the possibility when he essentially gave up his efforts in New Hampshire in late November after biking 500 miles across the state and still garnering just 1 percent or less in the polls, according to Nashua.Patch.com.
Johnson has expressed frustration at the system governing inclusion in televised debates, which requires minimum poll or fund-raising results. He鈥檚 only appeared in two of the GOP debates.
Johnson鈥檚 news is yet another trigger for speculation about the possible 鈥渟poiler鈥� effect that one or more third-party candidates could have on the election in November.
Historically, Libertarian candidates haven鈥檛 made enough of a dent to spoil the chances of a major-party candidate, but they tend to 鈥渄isproportionately hurt Republicans,鈥� says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
鈥淚f this continues to be a time of economic dislocation ... then given American history, you would expect one or more independent candidates,鈥� Professor Sabato says.
More than half of Americans 鈥� 55 percent 鈥� say a third party is needed, compared with 38 percent who say the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, according to a Gallup poll this fall.
But whether they鈥檇 really throw their support behind Johnson or any other candidate outside the mainstream is difficult to predict.
鈥淭his is a very serious time.... This third-party foolishness will be looked at more soberly this time,鈥� says Patrick Griffin, an unaligned Republican strategist and senior fellow at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College.
There was a place for a gadfly like Ross Perot in 1992, but most Republicans think he cost George H.W. Bush that election, Mr. Griffin says. People like Johnson 鈥渁re malcontents, and frankly, they should go on book tour.鈥�
If Americans turn out to have more stomach for the idea than Griffin does, he adds, President Obama will be thrilled because they鈥檇 most likely draw votes away from his Republican opponent.
In the swing state of New Mexico, Johnson as a Libertarian would draw 20 to 23 percent support in a three-way race for president, with Obama at 44 to 45 percent, and Gingrich or Romney coming in second, at 28 percent and 27 percent respectively, according to a recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) New Mexico survey.
Johnson is a fiscal conservative who says that if he鈥檚 elected, he鈥檒l present a balanced budget and end military intervention in Afghanistan. He wants to legalize and tax marijuana, and he supports gay marriage. He also supports abortion rights.
The Libertarian Party welcomes the news of Johnson鈥檚 switch, but still has a competitive process for its nomination.
鈥淕overnor Johnson appeals both to non-interventionists of all political parties (including independents), who are disappointed with President Obama鈥檚 wars in Afghanistan and Libya 鈥� as well as to fiscal conservatives who see most Republican candidates as agents of Big Government and high taxes 鈥� with the notable exception, of course, of Congressman Ron Paul,鈥� Carla Howell, executive director of the National Libertarian Party, said in an e-mail to the Monitor.
Many are waiting to see if US Representative Paul, currently running strong in some states for the Republican nomination, might also seek the Libertarian nomination, to be decided in May. He won that nomination in 1988, but recently shrugged off the notion that he鈥檇 seek it again, commenting on the campaign trail in New Hampshire that Johnson鈥檚 decision was a good one.
Associated Press material was used in this story.
