Why 2012 could be the year of the third-party candidate
| Los Angeles
One bid to mount a serious third-party challenge in the 2012 presidential elections cleared an important hurdle Tuesday.
Americans Elect, which intends to聽hold a nonpartisan nominating convention online and put the winner on the ballot in all 50 states,聽earned a spot on the California ticket.
The nonprofit group has already won ballot certification in 11 other states 鈥� including the swing states of Florida,聽Michigan,聽Nevada, Ohio, and Colorado. And some political analysts say that a confluence of factors 鈥� ranging from the weak economy to growing voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties 鈥� could lead to a third-party candidate potentially having a major impact. 聽
鈥淭he old adage is that third-party candidates act only as spoilers and make people mad with no chance to win, but this year may be different,鈥� says Barbara O鈥機onnor, director of the Institute for Study of Politics and Media at聽California聽State聽University,聽Sacramento.
Not only has voter angst created fertile ground for a third-party appeal, there has also been a rise in the number of voters who don't identify themselves with either major party.
鈥淭hey [Democrats and Republicans]聽have their work cut out because voters really deeply feel that the two main parties have not functioned, and people are tired of it and ready for the rise of a third party,鈥澛爏ays Ms. O鈥機onnor.听
Some third parties develop around personalities 鈥� such as Ross Perot, Teddy Roosevelt, John Anderson, or George Wallace 鈥� who rally disaffected supporters from the Democrats or Republicans around an agenda ignored by both of the major parties. Others, like Greens and Libertarians are more ideological and endure from election cycle to election cycle.
鈥淭he problem for Americans Elect is they are neither personality-centered nor ideological,鈥� says Villanova聽University聽political scientist Matthew Kerbel. 鈥淭hey are about process 鈥� about using the Internet to select a candidate. To that end, getting on the ballot in a large state like聽California聽is an accomplishment. But it is a triumph of process with no predictive value for the influence they may have next November.鈥�
That is, unless a charismatic or well-known leader emerges from American Elect's online nominating convention.
鈥淭he impact of Americans Elect will depend on the nominee. A well-known candidate might win a measurable share of the popular vote,鈥� says Jack Pitney, professor of government at聽Claremont聽McKenna聽College. 聽聽
And that would almost certainly change the political calculus.
鈥淎 reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, so anything that splits the anti-Obama vote will work to the president鈥檚 advantage," says Mr. Pitney.
Noting that Ralph Nader siphoned enough votes from Al Gore to tip Florida 鈥� and thus the presidency 鈥� to George W. Bush in 2000, analysts say that third party candidates usually hurt who they are closest to ideologically.
鈥淎nyone to the left will take from the Democrats and hurt Obama and to the right will hurt his opponent,鈥� says Jessica Levinson,聽former political reform director for the Center for Governmental Studies.听
Still others think that this particular election is so polarized, it might make voters loath to give up their votes at all.
鈥淭he more Democrats and Republicans believe that the other party is not just wrong, but evil 鈥� as seems to be likely the sub rosa messages of both parties' campaign strategies 鈥� then the less likely voters will vote for a third-party candidate,鈥� says Villanova political scientist Lara Brown, author of 鈥淛ockeying for the American Presidency." "I don't imagine that when election day rolls around too many voters will feel they can waste their votes.鈥�
