Will Sarah Palin still enter the GOP race? Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie?
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| Washington
When Texas Gov. Rick Perry entered the presidential race last Saturday, some pundits were quick to declare the GOP field filled. At last, someone who could go toe-to-toe against the weak front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is too moderate and dispassionate for many Republicans鈥 taste, they said.
Not so fast.
If anything, the speculation and scooplets about possible new entrants have only accelerated. All week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin have gotten the most buzz, but former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin get honorable mentions.
On Friday, a piece in The Daily Caller reported that former campaign staffers for ex-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty 鈥 who ended his campaign last Sunday 鈥 were trying to woo the blunt-spoken Governor Christie into the race. It also said these same staffers had received an overture from Representative Ryan, a, young conservative intellectual leader.
On Tuesday, The Weekly Standard reported that Ryan was 鈥渟trongly considering a run.鈥 The night before, former George W. Bush political guru Karl Rove raised the possibility on Fox News that both Christie and Ryan might reconsider their earlier statements that ruled out a run.
Yet it must be stated that there is no love lost between the two Texans, Mr. Rove and Governor Perry. So any suggestion by Rove that the GOP field still lacks The One, and that other major contenders may yet enter, must be discounted.
Still, says Ari Fleischer, former Bush White House spokesman, 鈥淚鈥檓 a little hesitant to put it all on motive, because as much as Karl has motives, he has good ears.鈥
Certainly, Perry鈥檚 debut has not been flawless. He said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would be committing treason if he printed money prior to the next election and would be treated 鈥渦gly鈥 if he then went to Texas 鈥 a harsh assertion that brought GOP wrath upon Perry鈥檚 head. He declined to affirm that President Obama loves America. He questioned climate science and evolution.
All those statements might play well in red America, but in the context of a general election, they were considered gaffes. They haven鈥檛 become part of his standard patter; Perry is still refining his rhetoric.
Bottom line: No candidate is perfect, and no new entry shuts the door to others.
But it is getting late. With each passing day, it gets increasingly difficult for anyone to pull together the organization and donors needed to mount a credible campaign. Fundraising would be especially difficult for a House member like Ryan, who has never had to raise national money before.
When asked about running, Ryan鈥檚 reply is always the same: He feels he鈥檚 right where he should be, chairing the House Budget Committee and helping lead the GOP charge to dramatically slash government spending. Plus, he has three small children.
Christie, too, has good reasons to stay right where he is. He鈥檚 been in his job only 19 months and could build a stronger r茅sum茅 for a run in 2016 or 2020, depending on who wins in 2012.
鈥淚 think Governor Christie wants to be reelected and is making positive change in New Jersey,鈥 says Ford O鈥機onnell, chairman of Civic Forum PAC.
Then there鈥檚 Ms. Palin, who still draws support in the polls and bursts onto the stage periodically 鈥 especially when the national press is nearby, as in Iowa last weekend. But there鈥檚 been zero indication that she鈥檚 organizing staff or potential donors behind the scenes for a run.
Another familiar figure who has hinted at running is Mr. Giuliani. As a moderate, he could complicate life for Mr. Romney in the first primary, New Hampshire, but he also hasn鈥檛 shown serious signs of organizing. And he ran a mediocre campaign four years ago.
Another former governor who has been dropping hints in the first caucus state, Iowa, is George Pataki of New York. But if he runs, analysts don鈥檛 give the moderate any chance of making waves in a campaign where the energy is among conservatives.
For some, getting publicity by hinting at a run may be more about speaker鈥檚 fees and other business endeavors than about any serious notions of trying to become president.
But this is a good cycle for a large field. With no clear front-runner 鈥 a rarity for the Republicans 鈥 the race is fluid. This invites new entrants and the possibility of winning an early primary or caucus with a modest plurality of the vote.
So the GOP field may well not be completely set. Though it鈥檚 getting late.