Do Obama鈥檚 abysmal approval ratings signal a looming Republican takeover?
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Husna Haq Correspondent
Less than a month ahead of midterm elections, a new shows President Obama鈥檚 approval ratings at the lowest level of his presidency, and the Democratic Party鈥檚 popularity at its weakest point in 30 years.
While this is certainly bad news for Democrats, it doesn't necessarily spell defeat in November, say political analysts. More on that a little later.聽
Some 40 percent of Americans approve of Obama鈥檚 job performance; among independents, the number is even lower, 33 percent. And 51 percent of Americans view the Democratic Party unfavorably, its weakest number in three decades of polling.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a little surprising,鈥� says Michael McDonald, a political science professor at George Mason University in Washington, D.C., of the poll findings.
The poll reveals Americans鈥� dissatisfaction about the state of the country and the political leadership in Washington. Two in three say the country is seriously off-track, according to the .
Americans are dissatisfied with Obama鈥檚 handling of immigration, international affairs and terrorism, among other issues.
Perhaps most concerning to Democrats are poll results showing an enthusiastic Republican voter base prepared to turn out for midterm elections and a relatively lackluster Democratic base. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans say they are certain to vote, compared with 63聽percent of Democrats.
Does that signal another Republican sweep at next month鈥檚 midterms?
Not quite.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 unusual about this election compared to others is that the American people don鈥檛 have that high an opinion of Republicans either,鈥� says McDonald.
In fact, Republican Party approval ratings are even lower than their Democratic counterparts 鈥� just 33 percent.
鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 look to be a wave election like 2010,鈥� says McDonald. 鈥淣ot an anti-Obama wave, if anything, it may be an anti-incumbent wave.鈥�
Still, many Democratic candidates have tried to distance themselves from the president and his policies.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a reason the president isn鈥檛 often seen on the campaign trail,鈥� writes Time鈥檚 Jay Newton-Small in an article titled,
In one famous example, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell鈥檚 Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes refused to say whether she voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
And there鈥檚 a reason Obama makes some Democratic candidates squirm.聽
Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the president鈥檚 party can usually expect to lose seats.
鈥淸P]residential approval ratings鈥nd views that the country鈥檚 on the right track鈥ighly correlate with midterm gains or losses for the party in power,鈥� reports ABC News in .
Adds McDonald, 鈥淪ome of the models that look at estimates of loss of house seats look at presidential approval ratings as one indicator for that loss. It is statistically significant.鈥�
What does that mean for the president鈥檚 party on Nov. 4?聽
Consider this: Obama鈥檚 approval rating is similar to that of George W. Bush鈥檚 heading into the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost 30 seats.
