N.Y. mayor's race front-runner cast as a 'socialist redistributionist'
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| NEW YORK
[Updated Thursday 7 p.m. EDT]听The surprising ascendancy of New York City Public Advocate Bill de Blasio may have energized the liberal wing of city Democrats, but the commanding mayoral front-runner has some Republicans cheering as well.
Despite the fact that the Republican line has won the mayor鈥檚 office five consecutive times in New York, conventional wisdom has long had the Democratic nominee easily winning the Nov. 5 general election this year.
It is still a city in which registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 6 to 1, after all, and which gave Obama 81 percent of its votes in 2012. Even the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who won three terms on the Republican line, has deftly played down standard partisan divisions during his 12-year tenure.
But Mr. de Blasio has stunned the more moderate Democratic candidates the past few weeks with his relentless critique of the Bloomberg administration, as well as his dogged liberal message of income inequality in the shadow of Wall Street wealth. He also was very effective showcasing his interracial family 鈥 including his teenage son, Dante, whose and descriptions of his father in have become some of the most memorable of the race.
With the support of 43 percent of likely Democratic voters, he could win the primary without a runoff, .
Yet these same traits, so appealing to a growing segment of city Democrats, could be used against him come November.
鈥淩epublicans will be looking to really frame this election as continuing the course,听going forward with the progress we鈥檝e made as a city under [former Mayor Rudolph] Giuliani and Bloomberg,"听says David Johnson, a senior Republican consultant and CEO of Strategic Vision, an Atlanta-based political consulting agency. "And they see [de Blasio鈥檚 rise] as a chance to really frame it this way.鈥
It鈥檚 an argument that Republicans would have much more difficulty launching against the other top Democrats, including City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, or former Comptroller Bill Thompson, both of whom who have run careful, centrist campaigns 鈥 at least by New York City standards.
鈥淲ith Quinn, and with some of the others like Thompson, Republicans don鈥檛 see this dynamic as much,鈥 continues Mr. Johnson, a veteran of high-profile political campaigns. 鈥淏ut de Blasio, they do, and they feel really that they have a chance to hit him for being so liberal, so out of step and potentially costly to New York.鈥
Make no mistake, the odds are still stacked against either of the leading Republican candidates. Joe Lhota, former deputy mayor under Mayor Giuliani, currently leads John Catsimatidis, the billionaire owner of a grocery store chain, by a 2-to-1 margin, .听
But Republicans could see a glimmer of hope against a de Blasio nomination, many observers say.
鈥淭hey鈥檒l essentially do what Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson are doing, because they are also more to the right of Bill de Blasio,鈥 says Christina Greer, a professor of urban politics at Fordham University in New York. 鈥淎nd that is framing him as this pie-in-the-sky progressive liberal who has great ideas, but that they鈥檒l never get past Albany, and that he鈥檒l never have the money or the听cohesion to accomplish anything.鈥
Indeed, with his call for increased taxes on incomes over $500,000 to fund universal pre-K programs and middle school after-school programs, New Yorkers haven鈥檛 seen a major candidate with such a progressive platform since Democrat David Dinkins 鈥 a fact Republicans will seek to exploit.
鈥淭hey鈥檒l try to paint him as somebody who wants to redistribute wealth and income,鈥 says David Mark, editor-in-chief of the online political site "Politix." 鈥淎nd they鈥檙e going to try to appeal not just to the wealthy, but also the middle-class people who are struggling just to get by and have some kind of decent life style in New York City, and really paint him as a socialist redistributionist.鈥
鈥淪o, he might be easier to demonize, when he talks about income equality,鈥 continues Mr. Mark. 鈥淚n some ways, he comes off sounding fairly radical, but I still think there鈥檚 still enough mainstream Democrats in the city who are likely to support that point of view.鈥
But even de Blasio鈥檚 multicultural and nontraditional family could cause some problems in the general election 鈥 even in a city like New York. His wife, Chirlane McCray, was in 1979, describing her coming out as a gay black woman.
According to GOP consultant Johnson, who says he is familiar with some of the internal polling of the Lhota campaign, there are a number of groups, including many Jewish voters, who remain uncomfortable with de Blasio.
鈥淒espite all the popularity, despite everything we鈥檝e heard about his son stealing the show, they鈥檙e also seeing, too, that there is still some backlash about the mixed marriage,鈥 he says.
[Editor's note: The following two paragraphs have been added after initial publication, for further clarification.
The Lhota campaign says there is no truth in Johnson's statement, and expressed outrage on Thursday that the Monitor did not seek to confirm it before publishing such an assertion. "I can say with 100 percent certainty that this question was never polled by our campaign, and this guy has never seen any of our polls," said spokeswoman Jessica Proud, who contacted the Monitor on Thursday after Johnson's claim about internal campaign polling drew attention in the press. "I don鈥檛 even know who he is. No one on our campaign knows who he is.鈥
In three separate followup conversations with the Monitor on Thursday, Johnson听affirmed that he was quoted accurately and in the correct context.听He did, however, say that he "misspoke" about his sources inside the Lhota campaign and that he had meant to say he "wouldn't be surprised" if there were internal polling about attitudes toward de Blasio's multicultural marriage.]
But before anyone crowns the current public advocate as the Democratic nominee, observers point out that a one-on-one showdown in a runoff with either Quinn or Thompson could be a lot closer than polls currently show. A majority of Democrats could end up thwarting Republican hopes to run against such an unabashed liberal.
鈥淪uppose there is a runoff,鈥 says Ms. Greer. 鈥淲e鈥檙e asking people to come out Sept. 10, Oct. 1, and Nov. 5. That鈥檚 a lot.... A primary like this would benefit someone like Thompson, who鈥檚 part of the old guard: He鈥檚 got the United Federation of Teachers, and they are highly, highly organized. But he鈥檚 also got older people of color 鈥 the people who actually turn out to vote in primaries.鈥
鈥淲e鈥檙e asking Democrats to possibly vote three times in two months,鈥 she says. 鈥淪o, polls are great, but it鈥檚 all about turnout.鈥