海角大神

After health officials in California鈥檚 Orange County announced that a patient was diagnosed with the new coronavirus on Jan. 25, social media lit up with speculation about whether the patient was connected with Irvine Valley College, in the heart of the county.

Cindy Vyskocil, the acting president of the college, got on the phone with the county health office. No, there was no known exposure at the college. If there had been, the office would have contacted her immediately. Risk of exposure in the county was low. Relieved, she sent out an account to the college community.

Twice a day she talked with health officials. Twice a day she updated everyone associated with the college, including with information about precautionary steps that individuals should take and that her administration was taking. Despite the communication early and often, she took calls from parents wanting to pull their children from the college, which has a lot of international students.

鈥淚 kept coming back to, 鈥業rvine is a safe campus and we are open for classes ... but also wanting everyone to take precautions,鈥欌�� she says. It鈥檚 a fine line to walk between preventing panic and being honest even with information that may be troubling. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not easy at all,鈥� she says, especially in the age of social media.

The story of the new coronavirus is unfolding in a world saturated with social media. This presents many more opportunities for misinformation, from willful distortion to聽well-intended ignorance. It also presents a challenge to health officials and others who deal with the public, especially when many questions about the coronavirus remain unanswered.

鈥淭his is the first social media pandemic, and that changes everything,鈥� says Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle who also researches misinformation.

A virus ... and viral information

People are watching the spread of the virus in 鈥渞eal time,鈥� and instead of it being reported out by the scientific community, many other actors are involved,聽Professor Bergstrom says.

Those include people sharing what聽they聽hear, whether it鈥檚 reliable or not; 鈥渟nake-oil salesmen鈥� peddling their particular tonic; domestic and international opponents of China, where the outbreak started; people using the virus to promote isolationism and discrimination; and those engaging in the same kind of 鈥渋nformation warfare鈥� used in the 2016 U.S. elections to now undermine trust in governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the media.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a complex ecosystem, with a lot of different actors, with a lot of different motives, pumping information in,鈥� Professor Bergstrom says.

Unknowns about聽the COVID-19 virus, as it has been termed by scientists,聽add to the confusion, he and others say. Now, for instance, the 14-day quarantine period is being questioned, and scientists and the medical community have a hard time evaluating the virus when they don鈥檛 know how many people in China were infected. Meanwhile, what the medical and scientific community does know is changing on a daily basis.

So far, the World Health Organization reports 82,539 confirmed cases in 47 countries, with 2,812 deaths. The Standard & Poor鈥檚 500 stock index has fallen 10% in just six days, driven by rising concerns about the virus. On Thursday, the sell-off in global markets was accompanied by Japan鈥檚 prime minister calling for the nation鈥檚 schools to close during the next month as a precaution.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underscored the uncertainty this week. On one hand, it warned that it鈥檚 not a question of if the virus will spread in the United States, but when, given the spread in the rest of the world.聽American hospitals, schools, and businesses should prepare 鈥渋n the expectation that this could be bad,鈥� said the CDC鈥檚聽Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.聽

But the agency also can鈥檛 say whether the impact will be weak or severe, or when a wider transmission of the disease might occur.

Evan Vucci/AP

President Donald Trump is flanked by members of his coronavirus task force, to be led by Vice President Mike Pence (left), at a news conference at the White House, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, in Washington. Health officials have confirmed 14 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. so far.

The sharp warning, despite its vagueness about severity, stood in sharp contrast to the relative calm expressed by President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday appointed Vice President Mike Pence to oversee the federal government鈥檚 response to COVID-19.

Emily Blodget, an expert on infectious diseases at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, says she is surprised by the CDC鈥檚 鈥渟omewhat alarmist鈥� approach, especially given the small number of cases in the U.S. 鈥淭he way they framed it, it made it sound quite dramatic.鈥�

There are only 14 confirmed cases in the U.S. as of Feb. 26, according to the CDC, plus 45 cases among people repatriated from Wuhan, China, and a Diamond Princess Cruise ship. On Wednesday, the CDC announced another case in northern California, this time apparently not related to travel or contact with anyone known to have the virus.

Still, Dr. Blodget says the CDC is 鈥渁pproaching it the right way,鈥� because 鈥渢hey don鈥檛 want to be responsible for creating a big epidemic in the country鈥� by underplaying the situation.

Not a 鈥減andemic鈥� yet, officials say

鈥淯nfortunately, science is messy,鈥� with conflicting reports and many unknowns, says Barbara Ferrer, director of public health for Los Angeles County, the largest county in the country and a gateway to the U.S. from Asia.

And the language of science can be alarming or misleading to those who don鈥檛 work with it every day. 鈥淧andemic,鈥� for instance, means a disease that spreads quickly over a wide region or the world 鈥� but it does not indicate severity. 鈥淰irulence鈥� indicates severity, but not spread. And 鈥渜uarantine鈥� refers to the isolation of someone who has been exposed to the virus but is not ill.

While the World Health Organization has declared a 鈥減ublic health emergency of international concern鈥� 鈥� its highest level of alarm 鈥� it has not yet declared the new coronavirus a pandemic.

鈥淯sing the word 鈥榩andemic鈥� carelessly has no tangible benefit, but it does have significant risk in terms of amplifying unnecessary and unjustified fear and stigma, and paralyzing systems. It may also signal that we can no longer contain the virus, which is not true. We are in a fight that can be won if we do the right things,鈥� said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,聽the World Health Organization鈥檚 director-general, at a briefing on Wednesday.

Public officials, including the CDC and the Trump administration, need to coordinate their message, health experts say. They need to direct the public to official websites, including those of state and local health departments, and make their most urgent information easily visible and accessible.

鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to create panic, but you don鈥檛 want to make false assurances, either,鈥� Professor Bergstrom says. 鈥淚t undermines trust if you say it鈥檚 all taken care of, and you end up wrong.鈥�

Telling people not to be scared, when they fear a new global virus that has no specific treatment or vaccination, is counterproductive, says Dr. Ferrer. 鈥淏etter to say to folks, 鈥榃e understand you鈥檙e scared; here鈥檚 some things you can do to protect yourself. Here鈥檚 my promise to you: As soon as I have good information, I get it to you. I don鈥檛 hold onto it.鈥欌��

Dr. Ferrer鈥檚 office had to firmly put down a hoax that falsely claimed on fake letterhead five cases in a majority-Asian community. She says she鈥檚 taking a 鈥渕ultipronged鈥� approach to messaging, including almost daily updates to its website, teleconferences with the media and officials, and bringing thousands of information packets to trusted community organizations and businesses.

Long before the CDC made its announcement this week, Dr. Ferrer says the county has been preparing for widespread transmission and how that might affect people鈥檚 mobility, including school and office closures. 鈥淚t鈥檚 similar to being prepared for earthquakes, fires, or bad weather. I think preparedness is the name of the game for everybody.鈥�